I've posted before about the markets, basically the bettors, catching up to reality in terms of scores and team comparisons. Early in the season it can be a heyday or minefield for all types of bettors. For this early in the season, oddsmakers in the CFL have done a great job so far in predicting where the bettors are going put their money. It has been to the benefit of the bookmakers for sure. Although most of the time these are the same guys.
After all, when the moneyline is concerned, the betting is balanced, and in view of a “base betting” math, books make no profit when favorites when. Books only profit against the money line when underdogs win.
I’ve also posted about why books don’t always strive for equal action, and they take a position. I believe this happened in the game I posted about above, as the books continued to take Winnipeg action, securing a position in Hamilton…the season’s biggest blowout.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...idnt-read.html
As with any sport, it usually takes a few weeks for the sharper money to kick into the markets and help tighten the lines. In my opinion, that as only partially begun and there seems to be some softness in the lines. This is difficult to judge, as it is early in the season and there are so many ways to handicap.
My early season methods tell me that the opening line of 47 for tonight’s Ottawa vs. Edmonton game actually opened too low. I believe the bettors are still following the lead of the oddsmakers, making it easier for the bookmakers, and are even reinforcing their own decisions. Perception of a lower scoring game is given with a 47, which has been bought down to 45.5.
Edmonton is coming off of a bye and has had a little more time to prepare the offense. Ottawa is rolling and just may pay you underdog backer for a third straight time.
There simply isn’t enough information for me to predict a score, even a rough one, which will be more valid than what the oddsmakers are already doing. I do however, believe that the books have taken a position in the over and lowered the line to a point of balance, even ticking it from 45 to 45.5.
I don’t think real sharp money pushed that line down through 46 and I believe smarter handicappers pulled it off of 45.
I’m taking the
OVER 45.5 (-108) for the Ottawa vs. Edmonton game. I doubt there is enough money to get that to 46, but we’ll see.
Good Luck