We're entering the last week of the NFL regular season, a week that is always a bit tough to cap. How motivated some teams are is always questionable, and then we've got the whole other issue of playoff teams resting guys. Last season I had a losing Week 17 as I did a poor job evaluating all of these factors, hopefully I learned something from it and will bounce back this year. However, for these wagers and any others you guys may make, I suggest going a bit lighter than usual this week and gearing up for the playoffs. With that said, here's what I'm liking this weekend:
Carolina Panthers -7
The Saints have made it pretty clear that they're just resting up for the playoffs in this one, with Brees being listed as their #3 quarterback for the game and anyone else with as much as a hangnail being rested. We've become familiar with the defensive issues the Saints have had the last few weeks with a couple defensive players out due to injury pretty much every game, and in this one I expect that it may look even worse with even more starters on the bench. The Panthers have started to hit their stride offensively lately, and with the Saints' running backs on the bench in this one, I don't think that the Panthers' 7th worst rush defense will be much of an issue. I think the Panthers cruise in this one, winning by double digits.
Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 38
The Broncos made the head scratching decision to bench Marshall this weekend, who accounts for a huge part of their offense. I think this has a big impact on Orton and the offense in this one, as we likely don't see the same offensive explosion out of the Broncos as we did the first time facing the Chiefs. Although the Chiefs' passing and rushing defense has been awful this year, I don't think that the Broncos' passing attack will be able to get a ton going without Marshall, and we won't see many of explosive plays out of them. Meanwhile, Denvers' defense may have looked vulnerable against the Eagles last week, but I think in a must win game at home their 2nd best passing defense and slightly above average rushing defense shows up and holds the sorry Chiefs down without much problem. All in all, I think this total is pretty safe to go under by about a touchdown.
Steelers/Dolphins OVER 45
This is another case of the Dolphins passing defense, 6th worst in yards/pass attempt allowed, going against a team that generates the majority of its' offense by throwing the ball (Pittsburgh is 5th in yards/pass attempt). This bodes pretty well for the Steelers to be able to have their way on offense, as I expect them to have a point total in the high 20s. In addition, I think Miami has a good chance at keeping up on the scoreboard, as recently the Pittsburgh defense has shown a real vulnerability in the passing game as well, and Miami is starting to hit their stride and generate offense through the air as well. Both teams are capable of hitting the mid 20s in this game, and I think this total gets pushed over with a final score along the lines of 27-24.
Minnesota Vikings -9
The Vikings have really struggled lately, yet I believe this is a big bounce back game for them. Minnesota suddenly finds themselves battling for a first round bye, and in a must win game if they want any hope of salvaging that goal. We all know the Vikings have been a much better team at home this year, as they've averaged just over 31 ppg, while allowing just over 18. While it's nice to have this on our side, I also think that Minnesota should bounce back this week because I believe that DT Pat Williams will be playing, who is a huge part of their line and allowing Minnesota to generate pressure on opposing QBs. The Giants should also suffer from the absence of RB Brandon Jacobs, while perhaps not being very motivated for this contest having just been eliminated from the playoff hunt. All in all, I think that this is shaped to be a double digit win from the Vikings as they get ready to head into the playoffs.
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Kroy's Week 17 NFL Thread (47-24-1 ATS YTD)
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