[TwoWays]

U guys worry too much about other shit. Over pays and stop the week to week noise.

[raydog]

How does this ridic points and fav crap keep happening. It's nuts

This line was over inflated and it still won't matter.

there was nothing wrong with the #s... if a side/total is over inflated (off market), books get massacred by sharps ... fwiw

[PAYTON20]

The obvious choice can be sharp too.....Just because you fade the public and/or take the points doesn't make you a sharp

You will get buried if you blindly tail any trend like this

Great post

end of thread

[raydog]

The obvious choice can be sharp too.....Just because you fade the public and/or take the points doesn't make you a sharp

You will get buried if you blindly tail any trend like this

yeah, guys get caught up with fading the public and thinking they cant lose.. they dont realize the labeled sharps and their money are what moves lines... kids here need to pay more attention to line moves and less about the sbrodds consensus garbage...

if anyone says that betting the panthers was sharp, after it moved off 7, they need a refresher course on what the word actually means.

[incognitoh]

Well, from what I have read (all sports) over the past year here, it appears that the SBR community believes that all underdogs are "sharp" bets and all favorites are "public" bets; wish it were that easy...

[t-wizzle]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...lay-juice.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...al-monday.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...al-monday.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ikes-back.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...september.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ion-today.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ays-today.html

Haha wow. And that's just in the last few months.

[Allure]

Eight threads in the last five months on a topic that is discussed here daily is a lot?

The question is, what exactly are you looking to achieve with these threads? I mean there isn't even much to discuss, yeah the public won big time what now?

[mtofell]

I have 5 close friends that I keep their plays. These guys are very square and lines are taken right out of local paper. The Sunday 1:00 games results had me celebrating. Buffalo losing, Pittsburgh losing was really nice and Detroit late minute cover helped a little. The squares were chasing like dogs after free meat at 4:00. Straight plays and overs on all the games. Teasers and some small parlays. Really overloaded on the Seattle - Denver tease. The kicker is adding an additional half point to an already overblown Green Bay game line and they couldn't get enough of the Packers and the over. These guys usually play around $25.00 per game. Nothing to worry about and typically nice dinner money come Tuesday. All together winning over $ 400.00 for them was like hitting the jack pot. I am sure many in the group will double up next weekend thinking they can handicap. Being on the opposite side of the counter sometimes hurts for a period of time but as I sit here today I know its just a matter of time before I get it all back and a little extra for an appetizer. Since my buddies are pure public, I assume Vegas and Offshore probably lost 1000 times my figure. I have not talked to my local today but I assume he is not happy with yesterday late afternoon plays either. I know he was also complaining about a few large over plays on Saturday college football.

This is good stuff.... the trends in here are so true. The worst thing that can happen to a lot of us is to win. It sounds crazy but is true. I've gone through it many times in all phases of gambling. Walk into a casino with $500 and win $500 playing blackjack. Next night lose it all plus withdraw another $500 from the ATM and lose that. It probably would have been better to just lose $200 in the first place and go home with the $300 you had left.

Sports betting is the same. You hit a big score or two and then give it all back. I've been playing around with sports betting the last couple years in hopes of learning and someday making a buck or two. As best I can tell this forum is either 99% total BSers or a revolving door of trust fund kids who lose everything in a couple months.

In any case, thanks OP for the post. It's good info that unfortunately most of the people who would benefit won't take the time to read.

[frostno98]

Unless any of you guy actually plays at alocal, none of you know jack sh1t if a bookie got hit hard or not. Remember most gamblers don't wait until Sunday to start gambling. Most people who plays with a local usually lose most of their balance on College Saturday, and are just breaking even at best with the NFL public plays covering. If people are disciplined enough to just bet Sunday's all once then the bookie would get cracked, which is never the case. A dude with my local was up 20k and ended having only 3k profit by the end of Sunday. Trust me, the bookies never lose in the long run.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Unless any of you guy actually plays at alocal, none of you know jack sh1t if a bookie got hit hard or not. Remember most gamblers don't wait until Sunday to start gambling. Most people who plays with a local usually lose most of their balance on College Saturday, and are just breaking even at best with the NFL public plays covering. If people are disciplined enough to just bet Sunday's all once then the bookie would get cracked, which is never the case. A dude with my local was up 20k and ended having only 3k profit by the end of Sunday. Trust me, the bookies never lose in the long run.

Dont know how so many people get buried by College Football. Much easier to cape IMO.

[StackinGreen]

But my question is more about the turnovers and WHERE they are ocurring. Every turnover last night led to instant scores. You can't cap that. It can help the UNDER too but did nothing to. Even late 3rd, why is Newton, in 3rd and long, fumbles for no reason and PHL scores, otherwise scoreless quarter. Then, 3rd and 19 TD on a heave at the end for no reason, what's Philly doing?

[stevenash]

Dont know how so many people get buried by College Football. Much easier to cape IMO.

Only problem with NCAAF is too many -24 games on the board.
You can't handicap a backdoor cover.

[House]

Dont know how so many people get buried by College Football. Much easier to cape IMO.

exactly what I was thinking Mo

[thetrinity]

Unless any of you guy actually plays at alocal, none of you know jack sh1t if a bookie got hit hard or not. Remember most gamblers don't wait until Sunday to start gambling. Most people who plays with a local usually lose most of their balance on College Saturday, and are just breaking even at best with the NFL public plays covering. If people are disciplined enough to just bet Sunday's all once then the bookie would get cracked, which is never the case. A dude with my local was up 20k and ended having only 3k profit by the end of Sunday. Trust me, the bookies never lose in the long run.

a lot of guys who use locals arent that serious and only bet the nfl.

the nfl handle is way bigger than anything else, including college football.

last season the "public" got murdered in the nfl, this year it seems the public plays have done fairly well overall.

everyone should keep in mind that the nfl season is a small sample size, you only have 256 games in a season, not counting playoffs, so them being buried or winning for a year really isnt a big deal, like other guys said the books will win anyways.

personally, i rather fade the public, because you can almost always get a better number at bovada, even with those thieves dealing dual lines. I do use a local sometimes as well and he often gives better lines when I am fading the majority of his bets that he has taken (especially on Pittsburgh games).

[stevenash]

a lot of guys who use locals arent that serious and only bet the nfl.

I used to work in an 'office'

Don't kid yourself, offshore has not hurt the full time local, I'm not talking about the guy who takes action Labor Day to Super Bowl Sunday, I'm talking about the full service, all year round local, they still have plenty of serious dime players.

I wish I knew where to obtain such statistics, but I bet the percentage of small time rec players that play with locals is equal to those who play offshore.

[pavyracer]

I already see some inflated lines in NFL. Books trying to make the sheep bet chalk.

Bengals +7.5
Buccaneers +7.5
Raiders +11.5

These will all cover and wouldn't be surprised if they win outright.

[BadLuckSanta]

I already see some inflated lines in NFL. Books trying to make the sheep bet chalk.

Bengals +7.5
Buccaneers +7.5
Raiders +11.5

These will all cover and wouldn't be surprised if they win outright.

Neither of those teams are winning outright

[stevenash]

^
Bengals should cover.
Don't trust Oak for nothing.
TB game already moved to 8.5

[No coincidences]

yeah, guys get caught up with fading the public and thinking they cant lose.. they dont realize the labeled sharps and their money are what moves lines... kids here need to pay more attention to line moves and less about the sbrodds consensus garbage...

if anyone says that betting the panthers was sharp, after it moved off 7, they need a refresher course on what the word actually means.

Who said anything of the sort?

[No coincidences]

Haha wow. And that's just in the last few months.

Coming from the guy who's had an on-going troll feud with crusty that has nothing to do with nothing, spamming up the board with the same shit over and over again, that's an interesting reaction.

Yeah, eight threads in six months. Crazy.

[t-wizzle]

So. Defensive.

[lakerboy]

Classic coiner thread.

[pavyracer]

I already see some inflated lines in NFL. Books trying to make the sheep bet chalk.

Bengals +7.5
Buccaneers +7.5
Raiders +11.5

These will all cover and wouldn't be surprised if they win outright.

Sharp guy here.