Trying to collect my thoughts, welcome any discussions

Few games jumping out this week.

Mia/Buf: Over 43: 2013 Defense Rankings: Mia 16th against the pass, 24th against the run. Buf ranked 4th against the pass, and 28th against the run. Buf QB still questionable accuracy, Mia sports an improved offense and weak linebacking core. Last week Buf beats Chicago 23/20 in over time, against a 2013 defense rank of 15th against the pass, 32nd against the run. 167 passing yards vs. 193 rush (33 attempts).Mia beats new England 20 33, a 2013 ranked 18th against the pass and 30th against the run(New England improved secondary during off season). Mia 169 passing yard and 191 yards rushing on 38 attempts.Chi offense ranked up 427 yards against Buf, NE ranked up 315 against MIA.Some injuries in MIA and Buffalo defense.

I think both teams concentrate on their strengths in this one, running the ball, against weak run defenses. EJ Manuel in his second year, normally a time when quarterbacks start to improve. I like the over against a small total

ATL / Cin Under 48.5: 2013 rankings: ATL 21st against the pass, 31st against the run. Cinci 5th against the pass and 5th against the run. Off-season notes: Cincinnati offense shifting towards more of a run focus. ATL not improving on defense. Last week ATL beats NO at home, 34-37, ranked 2th against the pass and 19th against the run in 2013. Cinci beats Baltimore, 12th against the pass and 11th against the run. ATL gains 445 in the air and 123 on the ground on 25 attempts. Cinci 301 through the air and 79 on the ground on 26 attempts. ATL allows 472 Yards against NO offense, Cinci allows 420 total yards against Baltimore.

ATL has a tendency to play down when outside of the dome. Though the New Orleans defense are not slouches, the did not play up to their potential. I like Cinci to slow down the game and defend against Atlanta's pass attack. I think the total is pretty high, a result of the large total in the Atlanta game last week.

ARI/NYG over 43 : 2013 defense rankings: ARI 14th against the pass, 1st against the rush. NYG 10th against the pass, nyg 14th against the rush. Off-season notes: ARI lost key secondary players in the off season. NYG adjusting to offense scheme. Giants loss 14-35 against Detroit, gaining 144 through the air and 53 on the ground, Detroit ranked 23rd against the pass, and 6th against the run in 2013. ARI wins 18-17 over SD, passing 294 and running 109 against a defense 12th against the rush and 29th against the pass. Terrible play calling by ARI, continuing to run the ball when they were not gaining yards. NYG have a week to fix the problems on offense. Two veteran quarterbacks on teams that underperformed on offense the week before.

Both teams underperformed offensively last week. Ari, for gaining 403 total yards, did not put up the points you would expect. The Giants only managed to gain 193 total yards, against a normal Detroit defense. I think Eli and Carson turn this into a gunslingers duels. I believe total is low due to over reaction to last weeks scores.

STL/TB under 37: 2013 rankings: STL 9th against run, 19th against pass. TB 15th against run and 17th against pass. Offseason notes: Tb weak offensive line, new defensive coach, strong front 7. STL complete lacked of QB. Week 1: STL loses 34 to 6 against Min, ranked 31st against the pass and 16th against the run. Stl puts up 318 yards, and allows 345. 246 come through the air and 72 on the ground. Tb loses to Car 20 to 14, 264 yards of offense against a strong car defense. 162 passing and 102 rushing.

The lack of QB production on either of these teams, against decent defenses leads me to the under. Weaker passing defenses are less important, as both team will rely more on the run, going against each other’s strong suit. run defense.

Hou/Oak Under 39.5 2013 Defense rankings; Hou ranked 23rd against the run, 3rd against the pass. Oakland 13th against the run, 28th against the pass. Off season notes: Houston QB situation still a mess, Oakland improves defensive front seven, still weak in the secondary. Week one, Hou beat Was 17-6. 321 yards, 206 through the air and 115 rushing, 2013 Was defense rankings 20th against the pass, 17th against the run. Oakland loses to NYJ, 19-14. Oakland has total yards of 158 against a defense ranked 3rd against the rush and 22nd against the pass in 2013. Oakland allows 402 against a run focused jets offense.

I think both teams focus on the run in this game. Both defenses strong. Clock runs out with a score similar to the Hou game last week.