I'm holding out on Seattle -3.5 right now. I feel that it could drop to -3 or better before kickoff given all the public support for the 49ers in this matchup. I will make my decision then. 3 is a crucial number in football and this little extra half pt is holding me up from pulling the trigger on it.
Here is my write-up on the Denver/New England Under 56 pick I did on another website:
UUUGGGHHH... I've been debating what to do with this game all week. The spread has been bouncing around a lot. Im a Broncos fan and REALLY want to bet on them, but my first reaction when the line came out at -7 was WHOA that's too much. I actually felt New England was the better value. Now the line has come down somewhat, but I still feel theres too much risk. This game should be a pickem, IMO. So because of my initial reaction, my loyalty to a team involved, the public play being New England, Broncos playing a revenge match at home, and the way the line has moved, I see this game easily going either way. Its a toss-up in my book and there's little value in it unless your money is on the Pats. Everyone is focused on comparing Brady and Manning in this game, but they are forgetting there's a defensive side of the ball, too. Vegas knows Joe Public is betting on a high-scoring game with two studs behind center and the O/U shows that. The line opened at 54.5, which is a bit high, and has been pushed up even further by the public where it is now at 56. This is where the value lies in this game. The weather in Denver on gameday is supposed to be gorgeous, so its not going to be a hindrance to either side moving the ball. However, Denver should be going into this game with a defensive mindset. They blew it last year (Jacoby Jones anyone?) on defense, despite who stands behind Center. Everyone wants to see bells and whistles in this game, but I believe it will be a lot more hard-fought than what the pundits are saying. After thinking about this game from every possible angle, I see the totals being the weakspot in this match-up. I'm going with the Under on this one. I think its truly the sharpest play you can make.
After mulling over the two games, these are my 3 other plays on them:
Denver Broncos -5½
49ers@Seahawks Over 40
Seahawks -3½
GL everybody today. Should be one of the best AFC and NFC championship weekends we have seen in a very long time. I'm excited to come home after church and enjoy the day here in a couple hours!
1. Will the Denver Broncos have a Rushing TD in the game? Yes (Broncos Rushing TD) in game -115
2. Team to have the Longest Punt return in the game? Denver Broncos (Longest Punt Return) -115
3. Team to have the Longest punt in the Game? Denver Broncos (Longest Punt) -125
4. Team to have the Longest Kickoff return in the game? Denver Broncos (Longest Kickoff Return) -115
5. Team to record the 1st QB Sack in the game? Denver Broncos -130
6. Wager is on which team gets to 10 or more points 1st. (SEA @ DEN) - Race to 10 Points: Denver Broncos -140
7. Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game? Yes (Onside kick) +150
8. Team to miss the First Field Goal in the Game? Seattle Seahawks (First Missed Field Goal) -115
9. Total Punts in the Game? Over 8½ (-125)
10. Will Montee Ball (DEN) score a TD in the game? Yes +250
11. How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha" during the game? Over 27½ (-135)
12. How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the official US National Anthem? Over 2 minutes 25 seconds +120
13. How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the game?(7200) Under 1½ (-110)
14. How many times will Eli Manning be shown on TV during the game? Under 1½ (+110)
15. What will be higher? First Half Total Points by the Broncos -150 Feb 02/14@05:30p Competitor: Gold Medals by the USA
16. Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff? Erin Andrews -140 Feb 02/14@05:30p Competitor: Pam Oliver
17. How many times will "12th man" be said during the game? Under 2 (-130)
18. Will the Halftime show break the record for most watched ever (Record Madonna 114 million viewers)? Yes +200
19. What will Bruno Mars be wearing on his head at the start of his halftime performance? Fedora EVEN
20. Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the mention first in his speech? God 3/1
21. Will Wes Welker drop a pass in the game? Yes -140
22. Will Richard Sherman receive a pass interference penalty in the game? Yes +150
23. How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the game? Under 2 (-150)
24. K.Moreno rush attempts/. Over 14½ +100*
25. M.Ball rush attempts/. Over 9½ +105*
26. G.Tate pass receptions/. Over 3½ -115*
27. M.Ball pass receptions/. Over 1½ -145*
28. DEN players to score any manner/. Over 3½ +100*
29. Total accepted penalties over 12½ +125
30. First punt distance over 41½ yards -140
31. DEN wins by exactly 20 points +6000
32. Total points scored 51-55 +453
33. R.Sherman intercepts a pass +265
34. P.Manning rush att ov 1½ +165
35. Denver Broncos +1 -108
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