[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

THE NFL WEEK 2 SURPRISE:



The NFL is getting ready to go live in a few short weeks. There is always
great anticipation in week 1, and most will consider betting on the under as it
is anticipated with a lot of new faces on each roster, and limited 1st team reps
in the NFLX, that offenses will struggle out of the gate.



That in theory sounds like a solid plan, except it simply has never
translated to reality. The time to play the under is to low week 2 totals, where
you have an anticipated low scoring game, and the X-factor, which is what makes
it tick.



Today's newsletter looks at that X-factor often overlooked by bettors, both
professional and novice. The fact is, the theory from the week 1 consideration,
that team's simply have not had a lot of reps together, or time on the field,
leads us to the promise land in week 2, while others think now that they have a
full game under their belt, they are ready to score big. WRONG!



What apparently happens is that lack of reps leads to getting used to those
bumps and bruises incurred in game 1. Players need time to adjust to the
contact, and after week 1, it becomes learning to deal with the stiffness, aches
and pains all over again, from lack of action.



Remember offensive players will have more contact in game 1 than they have
had since last December, and with the lack of reps, they apparently are not
ready for it. the translation is exploitable in week 2, as the offense appears
slowed.



So what we are looking for are anticipated low scoring games in week number
2, those with a posted total of less than 40.



These teams have played to the under at:



89-53-6 for a huge advantage of 62.7%! That is since 1989!



Bring the home team in off a week 1 over and we get:



41-19-3 for a 68.3% success rate



Bring both teams in off an over and we get:



12-3 to the under for an 80% success rate



So while lots of cappers will be trying to sniff out under advantages in
week 1, you now know the real advantage lies in week 2!

[innovation]

The collective bargaining agreement has changed and because they have limited the amount of hitting in practice it's the defense which is lagging behind.

Hard to know how this will effect the future but I would not trust the past to tell me.