1. 01-09-13 11:54 AM #1
    BigDeem5
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    Baltimore Ravens to win AFC +1100

    This is worth a unit.

    Simple reason - experience.

    They were a dropped TD ( by Lee Evans) away from getting in super bowl. This is virtually the same team (- WEBB).

    Boldin and Smith are a good WR tandem.

    Flacco can go 10-25 or 20-26 for 300 yds. I understand he is inconsistent, but Denver's defense failed miserably last year in playoffs and could do it again.

    I believe the +9 is a GREAT bet, but ML is worth a shot.

    Odds are they will go up against the Patriots, who they should have beat last year. Patriots have gone in slumps with struggling with protecting Tom Brady, this could happen again.

    By no means is this a lock - but it is a good possibility.

    Ray Rice and an experienced defense is what they can lean on.

    Getting 11:1 on your $ to a team that beats Denver 35-45% of the time and NE about 40% is definitely worth it.
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  2. 01-09-13 11:57 AM #2
    innovation
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    Nice avatar yo!

    If they face NE perhaps but nobody is thinking if they go to Houston who they beat at home just barely last time they matched up post season.
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  3. 01-09-13 11:59 AM #3
    VegasInsider
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    Save your unit Deemer.

    Has a team ever went on the road and defeated #1 and #2 seeds en route to the SB??

    They might sneak by Denver, but the chance of Flacco outplaying Manning AND Brady in back-to-back weeks is slim to none. It's even more slim that Manning AND Brady play horrible in back to back weeks.
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  4. 01-09-13 12:03 PM #4
    k13
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    Odds are closer to 3% of this happening.
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  5. 01-09-13 12:06 PM #5
    BigDeem5
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    Save your unit Deemer.

    Has a team ever went on the road and defeated #1 and #2 seeds en route to the SB??

    They might sneak by Denver, but the chance of Flacco outplaying Manning AND Brady in back-to-back weeks is slim to none. It's even more slim that Manning AND Brady play horrible in back to back weeks.
    Flacco outplayed Brady last year in Foxboro. Denver is the biggest test.
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  6. 01-09-13 12:09 PM #6
    nosniboR11
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    I thought you were tired of starting threads about your plays, all plays not just cbb.
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  7. 01-09-13 12:09 PM #7
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDeem5 View Post
    Flacco outplayed Brady last year in Foxboro. Denver is the biggest test.
    I was just about to say that. I think its worth it Deemer, good luck.
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  8. 01-09-13 12:12 PM #8
    Mr Handicapable
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    Indy Resident that knows PFM

    PM owns Baltimore.....they have a blitzing scheme and he destroys blitzing. The best way to defend PFM is to drop off coverage and let him nickel-n-dime you between the 20s. It worked vs Indy quite a bit because Dungy's Cover-2 was too soft and too easy to figure out by good QBs (Brady 30ppg in his career vs Indy). The Colts also couldn't run the ball in the redzone that well and didn't have big physical WRs to win jumpballs....or good special teams. DENVER HAS ALL THAT COVERED!! Brady might get them if Gronk is 100%...or maybe Rodgers in the SB 38-37 but thats it. NO ONE ELSE HAS A SHOT!

    Stat for the day.....PMs teams avg. 26.8 ppg during his career. John Fox is now 48-3 straight up(12-0 this year) when his teams score 26 or more.

    Scratch that.....Coach Fox is now 51-3 when his teams score 26 or more!!
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  9. 01-09-13 12:14 PM #9
    BigDeem5
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    Okay Mr Handicap. Where was Denver last year vs NE in the playoffs? Giving up 28 in 1 half!
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  10. 01-09-13 12:25 PM #10
    Mr Handicapable
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDeem5 View Post
    Okay Mr Handicap. Where was Denver last year vs NE in the playoffs? Giving up 28 in 1 half!
    They gave up over 500 yds (31) to NE this year....Brady is pretty good if you haven't heard. Fox/Del Rio have made some key changes since their 2-3 start though. Porter got hurt and Chris Harris & the other kid (ran it back 100 vs Balt) but cant remember his name have greatly outperformed Porter. They also got Joe Mays MLB out of the lineup because he was getting killed over the middle in the passing game. Jim Leonhard (Jets) started getting some playing time in the nickel and he's a smart vet that knows where to be.

    I've also seen the Ravens alot this year...they've taken some steps back. The O-line isn't protecting as well or getting push for Rice. The D is getting old and Torrey Smith has regressed. Bolden is too slow to get open on Champ Bailey....will be no factor either. Ray Rice even looked worse than Pierce last week....don't see how Balt. even keeps this within 10 unless late backdoor.
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  11. 01-09-13 12:58 PM #11
    Big Bear
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    save your money kid.

    put that unit on ravens +10 on saturday instead, that game will be fairly close but even if the Ravens win they won't win in
    Foxboro
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  12. 01-09-13 01:09 PM #12
    k13
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    7 point or higher spreads are only winning 15% of games this year.

    Now you want to win two in a row??? Be nice.

    But this is not SBR Poker.
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  13. 01-09-13 01:13 PM #13
    SamDiamond
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    This isn't worth a ML look at all.

    It's has as much value as playing a scratch off lottery ticket.

    I think you could get a late bd cover, that is possible. But you're not getting a ML win here, and there is a big difference between "perceived value" and actual value.

    I mean, if you're going to use 2011 as your handicapping tool then where the hell are the New York Giants? Things change so quickly in the NFL from year-year, that it is fool's gold to try and make something that happened 12 months ago.
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  14. 01-09-13 01:18 PM #14
    Erock87
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    Surprised you're not waiting til 3 PM when the steam drops off it...

    This is dead money. Joe Flacco doesnt win games, Rice/Lewis do. And he won't go into Denver, and THEN into Foxboro, beating two top teams with top QBs. Just not happening - it's that simple. Zero value in a bet that doesn't win.
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  15. 01-09-13 01:29 PM #15
    BIGDAY
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  16. 01-09-13 01:40 PM #16
    rUnVnME2
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    OP must be playing those "10cent" units, with his horrible picks...
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  17. 01-09-13 01:52 PM #17
    Vesuvius
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    Not a chance, more like 25% chance to win in Denver and then 20% chance in NE... 5% chance ... not +EV
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  18. 01-09-13 02:34 PM #18
    wantitall4moi
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    Just parlay them, theyll be +400 this game, if they win that they will be +430 at New England, or of Hou wins Balt would be +380 or more there.

    +1100 is shit odds.
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  19. 01-09-13 03:03 PM #19
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    Has a team ever went on the road and defeated #1 and #2 seeds en route to the SB??
    Giants just did it last year, beating GB (#1) and SF (#2)

    I don't feel like rooting through the stats, but any time a lower seed goes to the SB, they gotta pass the #1 and #2.
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  20. 01-09-13 03:20 PM #20
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Giants just did it last year, beating GB (#1) and SF (#2)

    I don't feel like rooting through the stats, but any time a lower seed goes to the SB, they gotta pass the #1 and #2.
    Steelers in 2005, beat #1, #2 and #1 in SB.
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  21. 01-09-13 03:37 PM #21
    nrok2118
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    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
    Just parlay them, theyll be +400 this game, if they win that they will be +430 at New England, or of Hou wins Balt would be +380 or more there.

    +1100 is shit odds.
    Yeah parlay both and you should get over 20:1, dont cut yourself short
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  22. 01-09-13 03:45 PM #22
    PAULYPOKER
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    Deem,

    quit fukkin around................
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  23. 01-09-13 04:23 PM #23
    d2bets
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    Terrible odds. Just terrible. Just bet em +395 ML and put it on them next game if they win.
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  24. 01-09-13 04:55 PM #24
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Missing a zero at the end
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  25. 01-09-13 05:11 PM #25
    mngambler
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    no statistical analysis that proves this bet has any value whatsoever...just seems guys like to be cute and contrarian around playoff time and waste money
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  26. 01-09-13 05:38 PM #26
    GunShard
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    I wouldn't put your money on Joe Flacco.

    Optimal bet on Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

    This is a passing only league now, it used to be a both passing and defensive.
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  27. 01-09-13 07:11 PM #27
    slacker00
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    Weather forcast for Denver on Saturday, High: 20, Low: 12, 20% chance of snow, wind E 7 mph.

    Any Ravens backers praying for snow?
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  28. 01-09-13 07:13 PM #28
    bobby heenan
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    hey good luck with that
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  29. 01-09-13 07:51 PM #29
    tblues2005
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    Good Luck!! Don't see it happening!
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  30. 01-12-13 10:50 PM #30
    BigDeem5
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    1 down. Check in all the morons and Peyton mannin lovers
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  31. 01-12-13 11:02 PM #31
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDeem5 View Post
    1 down. Check in all the morons and Peyton mannin lovers
    K rodgers lover

    better hedge this shit Brady > Ravens D refs love Brady and won't help Ravens like they did today
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  32. 01-12-13 11:11 PM #32
    GunShard
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    Talk shit when Tom Brady loses first. You didn't win yet.
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  33. 01-13-13 12:45 AM #33
    BigDeem5
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    Brady or not... Ravens got a shot
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  34. 01-13-13 12:48 AM #34
    PAULYPOKER
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  35. 01-13-13 02:39 AM #35
    Full Time Hobo
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    Makes a nice hedge now
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