[Chance Harper]

QBs lead Heisman, NFL MVP Futures

As Mel Brooks noted in History of the World, Part I, "It's good to be the king." The same is true for QBs when it comes to taking home Heisman Trophies and NFL MVPs. This year's Heisman race looks like a foregone conclusion with returning winners Tim Tebow of Florida and OU's Sam Bradford joining Texas' Colt McCoy as the top three favorites. Meanwhile in the NFL, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are the chalky picks.


There’s no I in MVP.

The NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award is the most prestigious individual honor in pro football. But when you’re handicapping the futures market, you need to look at more than just the one man under the helmet. The MVP is selected by the Associated Press, specifically by the 50 AP writers and broadcasters who cast their votes at the end of the regular season. Their criteria for what makes a player “most valuable” is not the same as yours or mine.

First and foremost, it’s best to be a quarterback. Out of the 53 MVP winners since the award was first officially handed out in 1957, 33 of them were QBs, followed by 17 running backs, one linebacker, one defensive tackle and one place-kicker. It’s difficult to argue against the emphasis on QBs; they are indeed the most important players on the field, and the difference in productivity between an elite QB and his back-up is usually staggering.


But it isn’t just enough to be valuable – you also have to be seen to be valuable, and what AP writers are looking for is a story to tell their readers. Very few people indeed pay attention to the work being done by offensive linemen, nor do they appreciate the difference between a great one and a good one. Fans of the Seattle Seahawks are probably more aware of this than most; their team produced 2005 MVP Shaun Alexander at running back and went to the Super Bowl, then began to unravel the following year when guard Steve Hutchinson signed with the Minnesota Vikings. Alexander went from Most Valuable to unemployed by the end of last year.

Perfectly logical, then, that the two men with the shortest MVP betting odds for the 2009 campaign (+480) are the two most famous QBs in the league: Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts and Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. Manning is the reigning and three-time MVP, while Brady won in 2007 after leading the Pats to an undefeated regular season.

There will be challenges for both men this year – Manning has a new head coach in Jim Caldwell, and Brady is coming off reconstructive knee surgery that forced him to miss nearly all of last year. But the love affair between them and the press is well established, and if Manning and/or Brady can meet these challenges, they’ll get even more MVP consideration.

The top tailback on the board is Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson at +850. He’s benefited from Hutchinson’s play on the offensive line, and from an endless cycle of dubious QBs whose best option has always been to hand Peterson the ball. But there’s a very good chance that Brett Favre, himself a three-time MVP, is going to join the Vikings this year. Although the love for Favre has turned a bit sour over the past few years, he’s still the biggest story in the NFL and is bound to take attention away from Peterson.

I’m definitely looking at Brady as the man in the best position to win MVP. New England went 11-5 last year with Matt Cassel, but didn’t make the playoffs because the 11-5 Miami Dolphins earned the tiebreaker. The Patriots have made a number of improvements on both sides of the ball (just as they did before the 2007 season), so all Brady needs to do to get the Pats back into the playoffs – and thus get all the glory – is play as well as Cassel did last year.

The bias toward QBs and RBs is just as prevalent among the 870 media members who vote on college football’s Heisman Trophy. Only five players from other positions have won the award since its inception in 1935, and eight of the last nine winners were quarterbacks. And just like the NFL futures market, the last two Heisman honorees are also the top two favorites: 2007 winner Tim Tebow (+200) of the Florida Gators and 2008 winner Sam Bradford (+275) of the Oklahoma Sooners.

This is where things get a little different than in the pros. Only one player has ever won two Heismans: Ohio State Buckeyes RB Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. Tebow and Bradford have already bucked the Heisman trend by winning as underclassmen, and Tebow is portrayed as a god by the college football media.

But it’s all about the storyline, and in my humble opinion, this is the year for QB Colt McCoy (+275) to lead the highly respected Texas Longhorns program back to the national championship. McCoy, by the way, is the only one of the three playing behind a solid offensive line this year. Coincidence? I think not.

[Fishhead]

I think a sleeper could steal the Heisman away from one of the big three this year...........I just hope he doesn't get arrested.

[cspurs]

as long as Tebow does not win, I could care less