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Indianapolis Colts +140 ML (Week 2)
I'll attempt to bet on a "No Vig" line. Which is any line greater than +100.
1. Andrew Luck is a better Quarterback than Christian Ponder.
2. A Quarterback is as good as his recievers. The Colts have a better recieving core than the Vikings.
3. Vikings have a weak secondary, Luck will exploit this with his recievers. Vikings had chance to draft Morris Claiborne CB into their team.
4. Home field advantage. Ponder has not been consistent winning on the road.
5. The Vikings do have Peterson to score points for them.
6. Out of the teams on the Colts schedule, the Vikings game is an opening for the Colts to win their first game with Luck. It's now or never to win a game.
I'll post my personal rules to gambling for anyone new to gambling:
1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll. Be discipline.
Kelly Criterion basically says to bet large on -110 and bet small on -500, and bet large on a straight bet, bet small on a parlay bet.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
"Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;
whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted." -Sun Tzu, the Art of War
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.
17. Moneyline favorites are more likely to win than Moneyline underdogs. Favorited lines are juiced because of this reason.
18. Learn from your mistakes. Most gamblers don't learn from their mistakes. That's why I made these gambling rules.
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Originally Posted by fergie's balls
