[Tully Mars 63]

Last year preseason was very good to me and I tanked the regular season. This year I haven't been able to pick more then one winner each week preseason. I hoping that means I'll have a great regular season. I'm planing a European vacation next spring and would prefer not to go Chevy Chase style.

[LT Profits]

I hit well over 60% in preseason from 2002 to 2010. Last year was my worst preseason ever and this year I am treading water (-3 units). It is not as easy as it used to be.

[Stevedore]

Don't bet against St. Louis...Fisher treats the 4th game like most coaches treat the third game; why the line is -5

[bobbyk1133]

I hit well over 60% in preseason from 2002 to 2010. Last year was my worst preseason ever and this year I am treading water (-3 units). It is not as easy as it used to be.

That's because you still blindly follow outdated trends. The league has changed, but you're not adapting. I've seen many cappers fall into irrelevancy because their old strategies no longer work and they either can't adjust or they're too stubborn to recognize it.

Coaching trends are not always a reflection of their "philosophy" ,but often times tied to the quality depth at QB. Andy Reid is a great example. Anyone who blindly faded him the last two years got kicked in the teeth because they didn't factor in the QB rotation.

Other examples from this week...

Lewis is 7-2 in week 4 NFLX, but Pagano publicly told us the importance he had on this game.
McCarthy is 1-5 in week 4, but KC's 2nd and 3rd stringers have got annihilated all preseason.
Turner is 5-2 in week 4, but SF's backups have been outstanding all preseason.

For preseason, research always wins out over trends.