Final 2011 Vegas NFL Power Rankings
February, 6, 2012
FEB 6
2:15
PM ET
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By RJ Bell
AP Photo/Jim Prisching
Despite the Giants' Super Bowl win, Vegas gives the most respect to the Saints and Packers.
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports-betting market and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.
Here are the Final 2011 Vegas NFL Rankings:
Pregame.com's Final 2011 Vegas NFL Rankings
Rank Team Home-Field True Power Bettor Bias Point-Spread Power
t-1 New Orleans Saints 4 100 1 101
t-1 Green Bay Packers 4 100 0.5 100.5
3 New England Patriots 3.5 99.5 1.5 101
4 New York Giants 3 97.5 1.5 99
t-5 Pittsburgh Steelers 2.5 96 0.5 96.5
t-5 Baltimore Ravens 3 96 0 96
7 San Francisco 49ers 3 95.5 0 95.5
8 Philadelphia Eagles 2.5 94.5 0.5 95
9 Atlanta Falcons 3 92.5 0 92.5
t-10 Dallas Cowboys 2.5 92 0 92
t-10 New York Jets 3 92 0 92
t-12 Houston Texans 3 91.5 0 91.5
t-12 San Diego Chargers 2.5 91.5 0 91.5
t-12 Detroit Lions 3 91.5 0 91.5
15 Miami Dolphins 2 91 0 91
16 Arizona Cardinals 2.5 89 0 89
t-17 Tennessee Titans 2.5 88.5 0 88.5
t-17 Oakland Raiders 2.5 88.5 0 88.5
t-17 Carolina Panthers 3 88.5 0 88.5
t-17 Cincinnati Bengals 3 88.5 0 88.5
t-21 Chicago Bears 2.5 88 0 88
t-21 Seattle Seahawks 3 88 0 88
t-21 Denver Broncos 2.5 88 0 88
t-24 Kansas City Chiefs 2.5 86 0 86
t-24 Washington Redskins 3 86 0 86
26 Buffalo Bills 3 85.5 0 85.5
t-27 Cleveland Browns 2.5 85 0 85
t-27 Minnesota Vikings 3 85 -0.5 84.5
t-29 Jacksonville Jaguars 2 83 0 83
t-29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 83 -0.5 82.5
31 Indianapolis Colts 2 82.5 0 82.5
32 St. Louis Rams 2 81 -0.5 80.5
Notes
Giants still not the best team?
Mike Colbert from Cantor shared the following numbers with me: If a Super Bowl rematch were scheduled for next week, the Patriots would be favored by 2.5 points over Giants.
If played on a neutral field:
Packers would be 3.5-point favorites over Giants.
Saints would be 3.5-point favorites over Giants.
In other words, Vegas considers three teams to still be clearly better than the Super Bowl champs, just as the Vegas Rankings estimate.
"First score = Giants safety" paid an eye-bulging 100 to 1 at some sportsbooks. One bettor has been confirmed to have won $50,000 on a safety-related bet at the MGM in Vegas.
Prop bet recap:
• The AFC won the coin toss after 14 straight NFC victories.
• National anthem over/under was 94 seconds at some sportsbooks, and 95 seconds at others; amazingly, the official time was 94.5 seconds (meaning over 94 seconds won, as did under 95 seconds).
• The Gatorade shower was purple (first time since 2003). Since purple wasn't listed at any sportsbook -- and neither was "any other color" -- all money will be returned to bettors (no winners, no losers).
• Over/under for Peyton Manning showings during game: 3.5. Result was under -- Peyton wasn't shown a single time.
• Over/under for Robert Kraft showings during game: 3.5. Result was over.
• Eli Manning MVP paid $220 for every $100 risked.
How big was the action on the game?
• Reports from a cross section of sportsbooks confirm this was the biggest-bet Super Bowl of all time, with over $10 billion dollars of action worldwide!
• Nevada, which accounts for less than 1 percent of worldwide action, is reporting significant increases over last year, with some saying the statewide Super Bowl record handle is within reach (note that the Nevada handle is more strongly affected by the general economy than the worldwide handle, due to travel expenses)
• Giants covered 3-point spread
(about break-even for sportsbooks)
• Giants won on the money line, $100 winning $135
(Big loss for sportsbooks)
• Total went under 53
(about break-even for sportsbooks; books varied the most with this result, with some winning big and some losing big)
• Props overall were a big winner for sportsbooks, as they nearly always are due to their high commissions.
• Giants cash Super Bowl future ticket: 19 to 1 odds in preseason
100 to 1 odds after Giants lost to Packers in regular season
20 to 1 odds at start of playoffs
(though the Giants' cashing on futures was the less profitable result for sportsbooks, overall futures were still a medium-sized win)
• Adding together spread, money line, over/under, props and futures action, Nevada is expecting a moderate-size win overall on the Super Bowl. That would make 20 of 22 winning years for Nevada (official results will be reported within the week).
Feedback from Vegas experts:
"We wound up slightly ahead. Considering the bath we took on the futures, I was happy with any plus figure. Still don't have the breakdown between props and game, but I'm guessing the props outdid the game by a little."
Chris Andrews -- Cal-Neva sportsbook chain
"Two key components for us were the game not going over in first half and winning a very nice bet with the halftime, as it came in Giants and under, which helped us immensely."
Jimmy Vaccaro -- Lucky's sportsbook chain
"The safety absolutely killed us. With the safety prop [Will there be a safety? yes/no], we took a huge hit. As well as with others that were connected to that prop. We gave out 100-1 to many guests for the 'First score of the game' prop. Safety by the NY Giants was listed at 100-1. Took in a lot of those."
Jay Kornegay -- LVH sportsbook
Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada.
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today.
I just see such a swing between some teams on home/road. I'd really want to see a "road" score.
New Orleans/Atlanta/Giants come to mind. It's very tough to go into New Orleans and win. Then again the Saints were not a very good road team. Matt Ryan almost always wins at home, but he's not good enough to consistantly win road games. NO and Atlanta are fantastic home teams but average road teams. Eli Manning and the Giants seem to not be phased at all to play on the road as he can win @ SF, @ GB, Patriots all in a row etc. The Giants road games are more like neutral games.
Giants will probably be better next year but won't win the super bowl.
Despite the playoff run, the Giants defense ranked 27th in yards this year and 25th in scoring. Next year they get their MLB back, T2, Tuck and Osi DE's probably won't be hurt all year, and the Giants must bring in a real tight end with both guys tearing ACLS. They will probably re-do that awful offensive line. Giants will probably be better than 9-7 in the regular season but it will be somebody elses turn to win it.
Not much to argue about here. Getting on a hot playoff run and winning the Super Bowl blows past the rankings. On paper, there are better teams than the Giants but in football there are often not enough games in a season for that to surface.
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Final Vegas Power Rankings (ESPN Insider)
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Originally Posted by benjy
