Tampa caught some breaks in ’05 to go 11-5. They won’t be so lucky in ’06, and appear headed for last place in the NFC South.
The Bucs are a generic mediocre team.
On offense, they have a mediocre QB in Chris Simms, a very good RB in Cadillac Williams who wore down when he was injured part of last year, and their premier WR Joey Galloway turns 35 this year, and I expect his numbers to decline after a solid year last year. The OL is suspect. Despite an emphasis on the ground game, Buc QBs were sacked 41 times last year, and that number is going to go up in 2006.
On defense, their strength, they have many aging starts including Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, and Simeon Rice. The 'D' carried the Bucs in 2005 along with their ground game. They will be hard pressed to repeat that performance.
In 2005 the Bucs went 11-5, but they were total frauds. They somehow went 5-1 in the division, splitting vs. Carolina and beating the Homeless Saints twice. Two 3-point wins (1 in OT) vs. the down Falcons got them to 5-1. The 2005 non-division schedule was ridiculously easy. They got the NFC North; they beat the Packers by 1 point, and won at home vs. Detroit by 4 getting them to 3-1 vs. the NFC North. They played the AFC East, and got Miami earlier in the year before the Dolphins sorted out their game. They went 2-2 vs. the AFC including a loss to the Jets. Yes, the Jets. They cheated Washington 36-35 in a bizarre home game, and they managed to lose to the 49ers. Yes, the 49ers. That's strong football.
Add it all up, and 2005 the Bucs had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Arguably they have the most difficult 2006 schedule in the league. In fact, the Bucs likely will only be favored by 3 or more in one game this year (11/5 vs. the Saints). Look for money to keep pouring in on the Ravens in Week 1 vs. Tampa.
The Division games will not go nearly as well for them, especially with Atlanta and New Orleans improved and with double revenge. I give them 3-3 in division.
They get the AFC North, and the easiest game will be in the snow in Cleveland on 12/24. At best, 2-2.
They get the NFC East, (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, NY Giants). Remember Washington will have this one circled after last year's debacle in Tampa given this game occurs almost in an identical spot on the calendar this year as last year and the circumstances of the regular season loss (yes, the Washington playoff win vs. Tampa is a big offset to this). At best, 2-2 and 1-3 very likely.
Their other two games are at Chicago in the December cold, and they finish the year vs. Seattle. 1-1 at best.
Their bye comes very early in the year, this is never a good thing. Thirteen of their 16 games this year are vs. teams that are all favored to win over 8 games.
The Bucs won the 2002 Super Bowl. After this, they went 7-9, 5-11 and somehow went 11-6 last year. 2005 was the aberration. Like many SB champs, and premier teams that decline, the wheels come off as the veterans are never excited to play hard trying to get to 8-8 or 9-7. As soon as the year goes sour, the attitude collapses and the team tends to quit giving full effort.
Pencil these Bucs in for LAST in the division this year, 6-10. Look for a monster losing streak beginning 11/13 @ Carolina, 11/29 vs. Washington, 11/23 @ Dallas, 12/3 @ Pittsburgh, 12/10 vs. Atlanta, 12/17 @ Chicago, 12/24 @ Cleveland, and 12/31 vs. Seattle.
Note, the Bucs do get a few breaks in their schedule. Many of their home games have the visitor arriving on the second game of road trips. Also, they get some early home games in the heat, which will help them. And I don't like that they get Seattle to end the season (could be a throwaway game for the Seahawks) I'd prefer this to not be the case, but the planets never align perfectly.
The Bucs are going down in 2006. UNDER 8.5 -160 (fine to play UNDER 8 -110) is my NFL 2006 Season Wins BEST BET. 4.80 units to win 3 units.
Last edited by SBRforum Staff; 08-08-06 at 09:39 AM.
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