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Saints vs Falcons; Official SBR MNF Thread
Hey all, welcome to the MNF thread. Falcons vs Saints should prove to be another classic
Will Drew Brees break Dan Marino's record Monday night?
Do the Falcons have what it takes to win a big game on the road, or even a road playoff game?
Is the Falcon's defense good enough to slow down the Saints' offense?
Let us know!
Also, check out my articles on this game, starting with my piece on the opening numbers
I posted this on another thread but since this is the official thread, here you go. I like ATL +7 maybe even ML.
How do you not take 7 or more? Plus Saints have Busted Giants and Lions on MNF this year so public should drive the line up. MNF has sucked this year and they are looking for a marquee close game with some suspense.
Since 2008 here's the results of the last 7 games between the two teams.
ATL by 14
NO by 4
NO by 8
NO by 3
ATL by 3
NO by 3
NO by 3 (OT)
They have scored 20, 29, 35, 26, 24, 17, and 26 points against ATL (average of 25 points per game). Their aveage ppg overall during that same time period is a full 4 points per game more.
Not likely to be a blowout in either direction.Additionally ATL Def is at full speed now, if they cant get it done this week they never will.
FLOWERY BRANCH — The Falcons’ secondary could be at full strength for their matchup with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints’ vaunted passing attack.Starting right cornerback Brent Grimes, who has missed three games after having knee surgery, is set to return to practice on Tuesday. Also, cornerback Kelvin Hayden, the team’s top nickel back who was out with a dislocated toe, could return to practice by Thursday.
Some other ATL stats from football outsiders I was not aware of.
#8 overall, #10 offense, #5 defense, #21 special teams. ATL #5 in weighted DVOA, which puts less significance on older games (such as totally excluding opening day in Chicago).
Offense is #7 passing and #28 rushing. Defense is #12 passing and #3 rushing.[/color]
Last edited by rockhardfister; 12-21-11 at 11:13 AM.
I honestly think that Atlanta doesn't stand much a chance to win. New Orleans is nearly unstoppable in their home. Atlanta is good, but New Orleans is playing the best football in the NFL right now, and Drew Brees is playing better than ever.
Anybody that goes into NO has a good chance of getting their doors blown off. Betting ATL is very risky here but I think this game like the last 4 will be close. These teams know each other too well.
saints will give 100% effort to win right?
I hate betting on games in the last 2 weeks. You never know who is gonna show up... If I had to I'd take Saints. So hard to bet against Brees, Brady, or Rodgers.
ill take atl and the points...not like atl doesnt know what they are getting themselves into and typically these games are tight..id expect Saints to win so i suppose you could tease them but atl and the points is good with me..
lean under as well, of coarse there gonna be some fireworks but 52 (who knows maybe higher)? they both be in the 20's but think it will sneak under, atl isnt in a hurry when the have the ball and should be even a bigger emphasis to ball control against saints.. would also expect them to make saints work for their points...
I know this is irrelevant to this thread but I'm liking the under on Bears vs. Packers 42.5 as well...... And yeah on Bodog its 53 now for the o/u atl vs. saints Thats a lot of points!
Originally Posted by BoutDemCowboys
not sure if i will touch the gb gm or not...if you made me play the total i would prob take under but gb unders scare me more than just about anything...certainly understand it as chi offense is terrible and their d has a history of containing rodgers, i would worry more about special teams and defense setting up scores (especially packs defense against whoever bears throwing out there at qb),along with rodgers getting a few of coarse..
Brees and the Saints average something like 35 points in the dome. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense isn't built to score that many points.
had another good weekend so I put in a 1.5u teaser....GB -2, NO +3.5, and Ov 42...I like it
Teasing the Saints seems like the best play here. Saints are white hot and playing at home, but hard to ignore the Rivalry history.
Not betting this game but like someone mentioned this will be the Falcons test to prove to myself and the world that they can win on the road in the playoffs. Their defense is playing the best I've seen it in a few years now but the offense needs to be a bit better. The Falcons have had a full 10 days off since their last game against the Jaguars on Thursday in Week 16. I don't know if that'll help them be more prepared or will it be the cause of a slow start that they might never be able to recover from. Personally, I fukking hate the Saints so I'll bet them against the Falcons but its going to be a tough game for the dirty birds and this will really show their true colors. BOL everyone with their wagers in this game.
Do Falcons really need to win this game for playoff positioning? This is something else you need to consider.
no falcons don't need this game. they are in.
Given the history of close games between these teams would it be smart to bet Saints ML and Falcons +7? Would that be pointless?
while that may be true what atl offense is built to do is keep saints O off the field..
Something to Ponder. If CHI loses tonight ATL is in. Looks like Saints have the #3 seed. ATL could very well be the 6th seed (If they want to). So, what hand does ATL really want to show in this game knowing that there is a great chance they will be in NO in 2x weeks anyway.
good point
True and on Defense they always make the Saints nickel and dime them down the field. Not many big plays...lots of 3rd down situations.
Does Atlanta really have anything to play for now ?, I'm thinking Saints -6.5 is money.
I may be wrong but I think NO doesn't have anything to play for and ATL needs to win to get the #5 seed. I'm thinking atl +7 may be the right side
New Orleans still has a chance at getting a first round bye
falcons win outright. saints sucker square bet
I will put $ on No, because someone wants to make history, but ATL will just show up, better to prepare for playoff, it's good enough for them to get in.
New Orleans will desperately want that BYE week and the #2 seed. They will be playing for their lives tomorrow. They know if they can win tmoro and San Fran lose (Who are On the road final game of season) they clinch the Bye. Easy choice - gimme the best QB in the League.
you do realize that sf plays the Lambs right? hardly any chance of losing that gm, more likely Lambs get shut out another week than actually beat 49ers playing for the 2 seed..
Man, you beat me to the punch on this one. I wonder what the line difference would be for that San Fran game based on Saints winning vs. losing. Double digits for sure if Saints win, who knows if they lose and San Fran doesn't care about the game. Of course, St. Louis could be in line for the # 1 pick if Indy wins and so they may end up having less incentive no matter what.
Atlanta team total over 23 looks like a pretty solid investment. The last two legitimate offenses the Saints faced at home both gained nearly 500 yards of offense each. Atlanta nearly gained that much on them in the first matchup without a healthy Julio Jones.
That is not a good defense at all. It is certainly not built to stop the no huddle set of the Falcons. It is real tough to get the right packages in the game against that offense and defenses get worn down. When your defense gives up yardage in half miles against a conventional offense, you will not fare well against one you can't even substitute in to counter.
I am taking Brees right out of the equation. I will bet that the Atlanta offense will click for at least 24.
The way it stands now wouldn't they face off in the first round? How does that affect this game
Falcons win or lose by 3, those are the scenarios
I think these are fairly significant:
2011 Trends (Regular Season)
The Falcons are 6-6 ATS.
The Falcons are 3-4 ATS away.
The Falcons are 2-2 ATS as the underdog.
The Falcons are 1-1 ATS as an away underdog.
The Saints are 10-4 ATS.
The Saints are 6-0 ATS at home.
The Saints are 9-3 ATS as the favorite.
The Saints are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite.
Saints crack the can open tonight!
Everything points to the over. 2 potent qbs, sproles, Turner. However. If one has reason to believe that Atlanta may cover /win outright, that is implying that their defense can somewhat contain brees in the dome. They both play well in domes, so I still think over is the right call.
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