[k13]

TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.


To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:


Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).


To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:


Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).




Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER

Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars


Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills
St. Louis Rams
Miami Dolphins
Dallas Cowboys


Here are the Week 15 Vegas NFL Rankings:
Pregame.com's Week 15 Vegas NFL Rankings

Rank	Team	Home-Field	True Power	Bettor Bias	Point-Spread Power
1	Green Bay Packers	4	100	1.5	101.5
2	New England Patriots	3.5	96.5	1	97.5
3	New Orleans Saints	3.5	96	0.5	96.5
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.5	95.5	1	96.5
5	Baltimore Ravens	3	95	0	95
6	San Francisco 49ers	3	94	0	94
7	New York Jets	3	92	0	92
t-8	Atlanta Falcons	3	91.5	0	91.5
t-8	Dallas Cowboys	2.5	91.5	0	91.5
t-8	New York Giants	3	91.5	0	91.5
11	Philadelphia Eagles	2.5	91	0	91
t-12	Detroit Lions	3	90.5	0	90.5
t-12	Houston Texans	3	90.5	0	90.5
14	Denver Broncos	2.5	89.5	0	89.5
t-15	Miami Dolphins	2	89	0	89
t-15	San Diego Chargers	2.5	89	0	89
t-17	Arizona Cardinals	2.5	88.5	0	88.5
t-17	Cincinnati Bengals	3	88.5	0	88.5
t-17	Tennessee Titans	2.5	88.5	0	88.5
t-20	Oakland Raiders	2.5	88	0	88
t-20	Chicago Bears	2.5	88	-0.5	87.5
22	Carolina Panthers	3	86	0	86
t-23	Minnesota Vikings	3	85.5	0	85.5
t-23	Seattle Seahawks	3	85.5	0	85.5
25	Washington Redskins	3	85	0	85
t-26	Buffalo Bills	3.5	84.5	0	84.5
t-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	84.5	0	84.5
28	Cleveland Browns	2.5	84	0	84
29	Kansas City Chiefs	2.5	83	-0.5	82.5
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	82.5	0	82.5
t-31	St. Louis Rams	2	80	-0.5	79.5
t-31	Indianapolis Colts	2	80	-1	79
Week-to-Week Injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)
Ben Roethlisberger: 3.5 points
Matt Hasselbeck: 2.5 points
Josh Freeman: 2 points
Christian Ponder: 2 points
Matt Moore: 2 points
Colt McCoy: 1.5 points
Adrian Peterson: 1 point
Matt Forte: 1 point
Kevin Kolb: 1 point

The following injuries are season-ending, and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans minus-3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs minus-2 (Matt Cassel); Bears minus-3 (Jay Cutler).


Most Overrated and Underrated Teams

Wins	Best Team (Rk)	Worst Team (Rk)
10 or more	Packers (1)	Texans (t-12)
7 or 8 wins	Jets (7)	Bears (t-20)
5 or 6 Wins	Eagles (11)	Chiefs (29)
4 or less	Dolphins (t-15)	Colts (t-31)

All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the New England Patriots are 10-3 SU but only 7-6 ATS; the Carolina Panthers are 4-9 SU but 7-5-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking.




Projected Spreads



We projected the Week 15 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the Packers, Steelers, Giants and more.
Projected Week 15 NFL Spreads

Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.

Home	Road	Open	True Power	Point-Spread Power
Falcons	Jaguars	-11	-12	-12
Bucs	Cowboys	+6.5	+5	+5
Giants	Redskins	-7	-9.5	-9.5
Chiefs	Packers	+14	+14.5	+16.5
Vikings	Saints	+7	+7.5	+8
Bears*	Seahawks	-3	-4	-3.5
Bills	Dolphins	+1.5	+1	+1
Texans	Panthers	-6.5	-7.5	-7.5
Colts	Titans	+6.5	+6.5	+7.5
Rams	Bengals	NL	+6.5	+7
Raiders	Lions	+1	pk	pk
Broncos	Patriots	+6	+4.5	+5.5
Eagles	Jets	-2.5	-1.5	-1.5
Cardinals	Browns	-6.5	-7	-7
Chargers	Ravens	+2.5	+3.5	+3.5
49ers	Steelers	-2.5	-1.5	-.5
* Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections)

[k13]

Jets getting huge respect.

Bal -1.5 was always fishy and still is.

[Sledge187]

This list is stupid!

[zsr]

Shocked to see San Fran still getting a lot of respect after struggling with Arizona and Baltimore, also wow at Tampa falling that far, makes sense though. Thanks for posting these.

[SteveRyan]

Great post!

I might add these data fields to my spread sheet for next season.

What is your opinion on Sagarin rankings?

[k13]

Great post!

I might add these data fields to my spread sheet for next season.

What is your opinion on Sagarin rankings?

I check them every week but mostly to see SOS(schedule rank) and some other tidbits.

Based too much on wins and not an actual team ranking, more useful for college football.

[DJ Dana]

I really think TB is worth fading the rest of the year because of some content I've read this week. Apparently a lot of their locker room has quit on Raheem Morris. Sorry no link at the moment but jeez, it has to have some validity cuz they just gave up 41 pts to the Jags, right?


Great, insightful post btw OP. Thanks for the effort and info....

[Night-Tripper]

I really think TB is worth fading the rest of the year because of some content I've read this week. Apparently a lot of their locker room has quit on Raheem Morris. Sorry no link at the moment but jeez, it has to have some validity cuz they just gave up 41 pts to the Jags, right?


Great, insightful post btw OP. Thanks for the effort and info....

This will be the second time in my gambling career that I've actually bet on the Cowboys.

[SteveRyan]

To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:

Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).

So, would I also have to take the True Power of the away team and subtract from it the True Power of the home team and then compare the two values?

For example:

Jacksonville: 82.5
Atlanta: 91.5 and 3

(91.5+3)-82.5 = 12
82.5-91.5 = -9

This shows that Atlanta is favored by 21 True Power points.

Correct?

[k13]

So, would I also have to take the True Power of the away team and subtract from it the True Power of the home team and then compare the two values?

For example:

Jacksonville: 82.5
Atlanta: 91.5 and 3

(91.5+3)-82.5 = 12
82.5-91.5 = -9

This shows that Atlanta is favored by 21 True Power points.

Correct?

No, true power is 9 points.

[SteveRyan]

No, true power is 9 points.

How did you arrive at 9 True Power points if Atlanta is the home team?

Using the formula you gave, I come up with 12.

[k13]

How did you arrive at 9 True Power points if Atlanta is the home team?

Using the formula you gave, I come up with 12.

True power = 9
Points-spread power = 12

[SteveRyan]

True power = 9
Points-spread power = 12

Sorry to keep hammering away at this, but I'm just not getting it.

According to the original post, point-spread power = (true power + bettor bias). But you have stated here that the point-spread power is (Home Team True Power+Home Team Advantage)-Away Team True Power.

That is how you came up with 12.

I have integrated True Power into my spread sheet so that when I input the NFL match-ups every week it automatically inputs the True Power for each team and makes the calculation. If I'm not doing the calculation correctly then it's all a waste of time.

Please calculate the Monday night game for me so that I can see what result I will need to be computing to calculate the projected winner.

Pittsburgh: 2.5 / 95.5
Seattle: 3 / 85.5

[k13]

Sorry to keep hammering away at this, but I'm just not getting it.

According to the original post, point-spread power = (true power + bettor bias). But you have stated here that the point-spread power is (Home Team True Power+Home Team Advantage)-Away Team True Power.

That is how you came up with 12.

I have integrated True Power into my spread sheet so that when I input the NFL match-ups every week it automatically inputs the True Power for each team and makes the calculation. If I'm not doing the calculation correctly then it's all a waste of time.

Please calculate the Monday night game for me so that I can see what result I will need to be computing to calculate the projected winner.

Pittsburgh: 2.5 / 95.5
Seattle: 3 / 85.5

The Article is from ESPN Insider. I did not create the numbers, they are what vegas uses for creating point spreads.

The projected lines are at the bottom of the article. Hope that helps.

[SteveRyan]

The Article is from ESPN Insider. I did not create the numbers, they are what vegas uses for creating point spreads.

The projected lines are at the bottom of the article. Hope that helps.

After looking at the projected lines at the bottom of the article, I can see that the instructions they gave on how to do the calculation is incorrect. They instruct you to add the home team True Power to the Home Advantage, and then subtract that from the road team True Power. That however, is not how they came at the projections they give at the bottom of the article.

The correct way of doing it is this:

(Road Team True Power)MINUS(Home Team True Power + Home Field Advantage)

In the same way that we would say 10 minus 5 = 5.

Road Team True Power = A
Home Team True Power = B
Home Field Advantage = C
Margin of Victory = X

A-(B+C)=X

A=82.5
B=91.5
C=3

82.5-(91.5+3)=-12

-12 is the answer they have at the bottom of the article. The answer reflects the home team margin of victory.

[Blissit02]

This will be the second time in my gambling career that I've actually bet on the Cowboys.

wreck em fuckin tech

[SteveRyan]

I sent the following Email over to Chad Millman at ESPN Insider:

Hello,

I recently saw your blog on power rankings and noticed an error in how the True Power is calculated.

The blog says, "To calculate the projected winner of any matchup: Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team)."
If you use this formula, the result is opposite to what the result should be.
For example, if we calculate the True Power for the Thursday night game in Atlanta using the formula above, the result is Atlanta +12.
This would suggest that Atlanta is the dog by 12 points!!
Here is the correct way to do the calculation:
(Road Team True Power)MINUS(Home Team True Power + Home Field Advantage)

In the same way that we would say 10 minus 5 = 5.

Road Team True Power = A
Home Team True Power = B
Home Field Advantage = C
Margin of Victory = X

A-(B+C)=X
Jacksonville True Power = 82.5
Atlanta True Power = 91.5
Atlanta Home Advantage = 3

A=82.5
B=91.5
C=3

82.5-(91.5+3)=-12

-12 should be the correct answer because Atlanta was the favorite. The answer reflects the home team margin of victory.
Over at pregame.com, they did all these calculations for week 15 and showed -12 for Atlanta. Looks like somebody figured out that the formula they gave was wrong, but didn't bother to correct it.

Evidently, Millman then emailed the guys over at pregame.com. They changed the wording in their power ranking blogs.

It used to say: "To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:"

It now says: "To calculate the projected margin of victory for any matchup:"

The formula they give is actually correct, because it is designed to calculate a margin of victory, not an actual winner. Nor does it calculate if the home team will be the favorite or the dog.

For example:

If we do the calculation for last weeks game of Green Bay vs KC, the answer comes out -14.5.

(83+2.5)-(100) = -14.5

This does not reflect the home team, unless you seem to think that KC should have been favored 14.5 points.

The formulas answer will sometimes be negative, sometimes positive. Problem is, you dont know which team the answer reflects.

That's why they changed the wording to "Margin of victory". It's someones margin of victory, you just need to figure out who (Green Bay in this case because they were the obvious favorite).