[No coincidences]

Miami opens -3/-2.5 vs Denver, Line flips and is Denver -2.5/-3 now

A short line won and lost but which one is more important?

Well obviously the closing line is the most important, though it is worth noting where early money goes -- especially in the NFL.

[k13]

Closing, but I guess it also depends on the book line as well.

The only place I saw Atlanta closing as a dog was Bodog. Maybe Greek as well though? Most had either PK or -1.

I don't count loser books. Only Pinnacle and thegreek really matter to me.

[serc]

So does this "learning process" help you make money in the long run? I see that you always talk about line movement and how it favors one side, I am not convinced that you figured this thing out, if you had done, then you woul have made a killing everyweek by selecting the right side. Just my 2 cents

Well obviously the closing line is the most important, though it is worth noting where early money goes -- especially in the NFL.

[No coincidences]

I don't count loser books. Only Pinnacle and thegreek really matter to me.

I'm pretty sure Pinny closed at -1 for ATL. Again, not sure on The Greek (think they might have been -1 for NO).

Bookmaker and Matchbook also had ATL -1.

[chilidog]

With an opening line of -2.5 or less, 10-16 this season.
With a closing line of -2.5 or less, 7-16 this season.

[No coincidences]

With an opening line of -2.5 or less, 10-16 this season.
With a closing line of -2.5 or less, 7-16 this season.

For home faves of -2.5 or less?

[Elysee26]

Great post. Everything is correction. Betters get to thinking teams are better than they are. The trick is to find matchups that are close and hedge (i.e. TEASE) your angles. When Vegas makes a line it is NOT what they think the finals score will be, it is a number that they think the PUBLIC will bet 50/50. Vegas lives and dies with the juice. I've spent too much time doing this to think that there are Square and Sharps. That is the dumbest thing in the world.

[k13]

When a line flips sides like the, don't think the closing side has lost once this year.

But I'll have to check closer.

You are right though, a high % of these small spread faves lose. Even higher if you consider the opening/closing lines.

[P.F.Kasooff]

SBR needs more threads like this one

[No coincidences]

When a line flips sides like the, don't think the closing side has lost once this year.

But I'll have to check closer.

You are right though, a high % of these small spread faves lose. Even higher if you consider the opening/closing lines.

If what chili posted is true, I'm going to kick my own ass for not following this to a T.

[geebert74]

Taking a side across the board is foolish. You deserve to lose if this is the case here.

[chilidog]

With an opening line of -2.5 or less, 10-16 this season.
With a closing line of -2.5 or less, 7-16 this season.

But for last season, with an opening line of -2.5 or less, 51-35 for the season. And with a closing line of -2.5 or less, 21-15 for the season.

It's just variance.

[No coincidences]

I've spent too much time doing this to think that there are Square and Sharps. That is the dumbest thing in the world.

There are winners and losers. That's it.

Hell, look at Kansas State Saturday. Line made zero sense. Public pounded the home dog. "Sharps" hit A&M. Line kept going up. Public kept hitting K-State. Big money on A&M. What happens? What everyone thought would happen if you take line movement and everything else out of consideration.

This is why you can't just blindly follow a given formula. If the line movement matches your lean, go with it. If it works with what I posted here, go with it. But if it doesn't, pass.

You'll win more than you lose, but it's not an exact science. Never will be.

[No coincidences]

But for last season, with an opening line of -2.5 or less, 51-35 for the season. And with a closing line of -2.5 or less, 21-15 for the season.

It's just variance.

Really? Interesting.

Seems like I've been burned all my betting life by taking short home faves. Then again, I bet college more than pro, so maybe there' something to that (again, softer lines, more games).

[k13]

If what chili posted is true, I'm going to kick my own ass for not following this to a T.

The -3 spreads are the ones doing most of the winning for the small spreads.

If you take those out, huge difference.

[d2bets]

I don't think any large trend rules of thumb like this are going to be fruitful over the long-run in an appropriate comparison. Simply betting all closing road dogs of +1 to +2.5 is not going to make you a long-term winner. To have a shot, you need more refined subsets.

[No coincidences]

I don't think any large trend rules of thumb like this are going to be fruitful over the long-run in an appropriate comparison. Simply betting all closing road dogs of +1 to +2.5 is not going to make you a long-term winner. To have a shot, you need more refined subsets.

Again, I'm not advocating just blindly betting them all.

With favorable line movement -- especially RLM -- you can win with picking and choosing your spots. A lot.

My guess is if you bet sides based on the following and nothing else, you could retire a rich man:

1) Road dogs of +1 to +3 with RLM
2) Home dogs of +1 to +6.5 with RLM
3) Home faves when the public backs the dog

Of course, next to none of us have that kind of discipline.

[bb_skoots]

^^^writing this down and putting it next to my computer.

[k13]

No coincidences, don't let someone tell you can't pick every game across the board and have an edge. The more games, the less variance, the less luck involved. College Football is a great example.





This is just simple following line moves/RLM/Fading public at an appropriate time. Also getting the worst possible line in most cases. 43 games over .500 just to be 54%, shows you how tough sports betting is when you look at who huge samples.

o/u is all Unders picked blindly. I'm not into totals but interesting to track.

[No coincidences]

I love having action on Sundays, but honestly, we should probably all just skip the NFL altogether.

As for college, k13, I see what you're saying, but you can also be choosy and strive for an even better record. It's easily obtainable.

[No coincidences]

^^^writing this down and putting it next to my computer.

[k13]

I love having action on Sundays, but honestly, we should probably all just skip the NFL altogether.

As for college, k13, I see what you're saying, but you can also be choosy and strive for an even better record. It's easily obtainable.

Yes you could try but after 10-30 years of being choosy you will come to the same thing as someone not being choosy in one year.

The last 12 years, no one has hit 60% in CFB with a large sample even with millions of people trying with no real money on it. Think about that.

[JR007]

lots of times the 3 just for homefield advantage

[brahmabull117]

Yes you could try but after 10-30 years of being choosy you will come to the same thing as someone not being choosy in one year. The last 12 years, no one has hit 60% in CFB with a large sample even with millions of people trying with no real money on it. Think about that.

I've easily hit over 60% since the start of the college season


If you can't hit 60% in college football picking 2-5 plays every saturday, you have no business sports betting. There are lines routinely that are off by 3-10+. College lines are just sooooo much softer than NFL lines


totals are also very easy in CFB - there are teams that go over or go under nearly every single week - you just gotta tail them when they're facing decent matchups.

[No coincidences]

I've easily hit over 60% since the start of the college season


If you can't hit 60% in college football picking 2-5 plays every saturday, you have no business sports betting. There are lines routinely that are off by 3-10+

Here we go....

[Inkwell77]

I don't think any large trend rules of thumb like this are going to be fruitful over the long-run in an appropriate comparison. Simply betting all closing road dogs of +1 to +2.5 is not going to make you a long-term winner. To have a shot, you need more refined subsets.

Putting short road dogs in a round robin teaser going across the key numbers has been fruitful over the long run these past few years. Especially if you look at those short road dogs in games where the total is relatively low. This is one of the reasons all these books changed their teaser odds. It's relatively uncommon to find books that book two team 6 point teasers at -110 in Vegas today (I think the Wynn and Cantor are the only books with these odds). Supposedly, in the past you could find better odds than -110 all over town.

[brahmabull117]

As for college, k13, I see what you're saying, but you can also be choosy and strive for an even better record. It's easily obtainable.

finally NC says something sensible

[k13]

I've easily hit over 60% since the start of the college season


If you can't hit 60% in college football picking 2-5 plays every saturday, you have no business sports betting. There are lines routinely that are off by 3-10+. College lines are just sooooo much softer than NFL lines


totals are also very easy in CFB - there are teams that go over or go under nearly every single week - you just gotta tail them when they're facing decent matchups.

You mean like Stanford over Oregon and Boise over TCU....??? Those were easy.

I can hit 100% if I pick only one play...no luck involved there

Brahma, next year do a spread sheet and pick every CFB game ATS. If you hit 60% I'll consider you the greatest handicapper in the history of existence. Good Luck.

[brahmabull117]

You mean like Stanford over Oregon and Boise over TCU....??? Those were easy.

I didn't play Stanford, I played the over and Boise was 1 of 2 losses all week (compared to 5 wins).

I can hit 100% if I pick only one play...no luck involved there Brahma, next year do a spread sheet and pick every CFB game ATS. If you hit 60% I'll consider you the greatest handicapper in the history of existence. Good Luck.

Pick every cfb game ats and hit 60%???



that's impossible. I can hit 60%+ doing 2-5 plays, no more

[No coincidences]

You mean like Stanford over Oregon and Boise over TCU....??? Those were easy.

I can hit 100% if I pick only one play...no luck involved there

Brahma, next year do a spread sheet and pick every CFB game ATS. If you hit 60% I'll consider you the greatest handicapper in the history of existence. Good Luck.

I really don't want this to turn into a thread of brahma sucking his own dick.

[GoBlue23]

I really don't want this to turn into a thread of brahma sucking his own dick.

[k13]

Pick every cfb game ats and hit 60%???



that's impossible.

At least we agree on something. Good thing you know. Back on topic.

[BigDofBA]

In college basketball, always bet road teams that are +2.

[brahmabull117]

At least we agree on something. Good thing you know. Back on topic.

I've never been a guy who thinks that you could beat Vegas betting large # of plays



Vegas is right on the money with probably 90-99% of potential bets you can make. That's why I laugh at these people who make 5,6,7,8 or even 9+ plays every weekend and think they're gonna make a bunch of $$

[k13]

There's a better "angle" which is a little more complicated and combines a few things.