[boneheaded1]

Michigan -400
LSU - 225
Patriots -350
Steelers -500

bet $100 to win $178.57


First two games could potentially be close (especially Michigan) but they both win their games 4 out of 5 times.

The next two are practically gimmees but surprisingly high returns given their gimmee status.

Call this bet "square" all you want but chances of it hitting are better than chances of it losing and it's better than even money. That is called . . . value.

I ain't playin it for a c-note though. But it's getting $20 from me when I get home (don't have a mobile device and can't access my bookie from work).

[neverstoppers23]

I think if one team kills you , it might be the Patriots. Kind of risky picking them tonight with the way their defense has been playing. GL.

[acarmelo1]

Guy, do a 4 team RR combinations o 3 team parlay riksing 10 each way.

thank me later.

[acarmelo1]

Actually put 25 on each, you will get something like this:

Ticket#:976560 Sep 25 01:00 PM Sep 25 08:25 PM Sep 24 03:30 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 23 05:42 PM	NFL NFL CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (4P-3T) [397] NEW ENGLAND -350 [423] PITTSBURGH -525 [341] LSU -230	25.00 / 29.90
Ticket#:976561 Sep 25 01:00 PM Sep 25 08:25 PM Sep 24 12:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 23 05:42 PM	NFL NFL CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (4P-3T) [397] NEW ENGLAND -350 [423] PITTSBURGH -525 [344] MICHIGAN -425	25.00 / 22.27
Ticket#:976562 Sep 25 01:00 PM Sep 24 03:30 PM Sep 24 12:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 23 05:42 PM	NFL CFB CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (4P-3T) [397] NEW ENGLAND -350 [341] LSU -230 [344] MICHIGAN -425	25.00 / 31.97
Ticket#:976563 Sep 25 08:25 PM Sep 24 03:30 PM Sep 24 12:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 23 05:42 PM	NFL CFB CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (4P-3T) [423] PITTSBURGH -525 [341] LSU -230 [344] MICHIGAN -425	25.00 / 27.75

[boneheaded1]

Neverstoppers. What the heck is that? Yeah the Patriots D sucks. But is the Bills D any better? Tell me, who has the better offense?

Dude, it's a moneyline bet not a point spread bet. Patriots will win. May not cover, but they'll win.

[acarmelo1]

Just in case one team **** you up, at least you get 50% of your risking amount back

[Glitch]

michigan loses SU.

[vyomguy]

michigan loses SU.

I dont think so...On the other hand...I think LSU might be the one that breaks your parlay.

[boneheaded1]

Not bad acarmelo1. Like it. But under the chance that both LSU & Michigan lose, I lose them all. If only one loses, I win back one lost bet and only lose 50% of my total bet. I'd just rather gamble it all on one bet for a return increase of an extra 66%. But I certainly like your line of thinking.

[boneheaded1]

Glitch, normally I would agree with you but Brady Hoke built this San Diego team. He absolutely knows what they are capable of. He is not coming into this game overconfident at all. But Michigan has the size advantage up front. If they just play "5 yards in a cloud of dust" type of football, Michigan wins.

[boneheaded1]

I just feel that this bet wins 60% of the time (which I'm sure you all disagree). Which makes this a very + value bet (178% return on a bet I estimate to be a winner 60% of the time). Of course that's just my estimation. And let's not forget my username. I think it definitely comes into play here.

[vyomguy]

Stay away from LSU...they might lose straight up....take other ML chalk if you want..like ECU or georgia tech.

[boneheaded1]

If it loses. I'm just another idiot. If it wins people will say I got lucky.

But I go on the principal that if I see + value. I'll bet it. Not always for big money, but I'll bet it.

But then again you are talking to a guy who budgets losses into his weekly bets. I always put aside $20 for making four; $5, 8-15 team parlays. (mix of teasers and almost parlays).

Then I budget another $20 for a bet like this, moneylines on games where the spread is relatively low even though the favored team most likely wins more than 80% of the time. Just because a team is favored by less than 7 points doesn't mean they lose that game a lot (it means they lose it more often than 14 point favorite but that still doesn't mean it will be frequent occurrance). If just means the other team is good enough to not get blown out.

Those who play statistics like "Team A when favored on a rainy day when big boobie girls are in the stands is 10-12 ATS". Will TOTALLY disagree with/never understand my line of thinking regarding the low spread doesn't mean higher loss rate. But those who look at games individually, the people on the teams, etc. will understand what I'm talking about.

WOW. If that doesn't make me sound like a bonehead, I don't know what will. Can you tell I'm bored on a Friday at work?

[whoisROWDY]

I may be biased as I am a San Diegan, but dont take Michigan.. SDSU has their best team maybe ever.. Coming off an 9-4 season last year including a bowl win, and 3-0 this year they are NCAA sleepers.. They will be ranked after this week, you can bet on that..

[DrStale]

All 4 of those could lose...BOL tho

[acarmelo1]

Michigan Just won right?

[acarmelo1]

Actually put 25 on each, you will get something like this:

Ticket#:976560 Sep 25 01:00 PM Sep 25 08:25 PM Sep 24 03:30 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 23 05:42 PM	NFL NFL CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (4P-3T) [397] NEW ENGLAND -350 [423] PITTSBURGH -525 [341] LSU -230	25.00 / 29.90
Ticket#:976561 Sep 25 01:00 PM Sep 25 08:25 PM Sep 24 12:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 23 05:42 PM	NFL NFL CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (4P-3T) [397] NEW ENGLAND -350 [423] PITTSBURGH -525 [344] MICHIGAN -425	25.00 / 22.27
Ticket#:976562 Sep 25 01:00 PM Sep 24 03:30 PM Sep 24 12:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 23 05:42 PM	NFL CFB CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (4P-3T) [397] NEW ENGLAND -350 [341] LSU -230 [344] MICHIGAN -425	25.00 / 31.97
Ticket#:976563 Sep 25 08:25 PM Sep 24 03:30 PM Sep 24 12:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 23 05:42 PM	NFL CFB CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (4P-3T) [423] PITTSBURGH -525 [341] LSU -230 [344] MICHIGAN -425	25.00 / 27.75

By the way I have this on the SBR Book.

Come On!! I need points!!!!!!

[boneheaded1]

Wow. Looks like some people don't know their college ball as well as they think they do.

Arcarmelo1, I'm glad you tailed (albeit in your own way). Hope the rest hit. Good luck to us both. You want points and I want money!!!

[boneheaded1]

Rowdy. I agree with you that SDSU is the best they've ever been. But they were playing against the big league in the big house (I ain't saying Michigan is some GREAT team. But SDSU ain't quite in that league yet. SDSU has fast but at this level all the teams have big AND fast. I have no doubt though, SDSU should and most likely will, dominate their conference.

[Ice House]

looks good to me.

[acarmelo1]

For some Reason NE failed on us at the end.

[boneheaded1]

Brady with 4 picks?!?!? I still make this bet every time. Although the Steelers looked abslolutely pathetic.

I'm guessing a lot of Tom Brady's friends from high school all made out real nice.

From what I hear, they all had the same bets in Reno. A parlay; Bills moneyline, the total score over, and the over on Brady picks. Sounds a little fishy to me.

Tough year in the NFL and it's only week 3.

Thanks for tailing acarmelo. Appreciate the vote of confidence. Although next time you might be better served with someone else. for some reason every pick I post, turns out loser. most of my non-posted picks end up winning. The good thing is I still finished the week, $22 up given the bloodbath to my bets the Patriots caused.