I am new here. I am a sucker, or square as it is. I have no shame in saying this. I'm 24-years-old, have been betting for entertainment for about 6 years and just enjoy betting to make games more interesting/for the fun of it. This season, I decided to put a small bit of money into 5 Dimes and try to take the game a little more serious, to see how well I can do. I have some extra time this fall to devote to a new hobby, and this would be the one. There seems to be some good advice on these forums, and my goal is to learn through experience and the example of some of the successful people on this site.
I've never really committed to tracking my betting in previous years, and so I only know that in some weeks I'd win, some weeks I'd lose, and surely fell into all of the pitfalls of your casual bettors/suckers.
A few things to know:
1) I am going to approach this with 100% honesty. There will likely be weeks when I get almost nothing right. So it goes.
2) I am betting small amounts. I am going to make lots of mistakes. I am going to make all of the mistakes, actually. In fact, I will probably invent some new mistakes, just so that I can make those ones, too. Do not tail me. Probably fade me. Have your grandma fade me, too. Let's make everybody some money here.
3) Eagerness/action is a problem. I start by saying, "I will try to keep it to X number of bets this week", and before I know it, I've got a dozen. That is something I'll be working on to find better value.
4) Advice, criticism, encouragement, discouragement -- whatever, it's all appreciated. I'm humble. I'm here to learn.
5) I'll be updating this thread with my weekly picks. I am also an avid hockey fan, and when the NHL kicks back in, may give that a whirl, if I am still above water by that point.
System
Surfing the forums for a few days, one of the things I've decided to do is bet to a chart based on the strength of my prediction. In other words, better predictions = higher bet. I am not sure if this is even the way to do things, but until I learn otherwise, this is the way I'm going to do them.
Based on 200 Units
6* Pick - 10% of Units (20U)
5* Pick - 5% of Units (10U)
4* Pick - 3.5% of Units (7U)
3* Pick - 2.5% of Units (5U)
2* Pick - 1% of Units (2U)
1* Pick - 0.5% of Units (1U)
These are approximate. The actual numbers may vary slightly. I have more than 200 in play, this is just what I've based my percentages off of to keep a reserve.
1* Pick and 2* Pick will be considered are action plays and leans accordingly. 3* is a heavy lean or a parlay/teaser play. 4* is is a light lock, 5* is a heavy lock, 6* is a sure thing. You might never see me bet a 6*, I don't know. 3* and up are ones I'd really like to discuss in detail.
So I'm hoping this is the right forum, and I'm looking forward to discussing with you all my many, many failures and my occasional success.
Risked: 105.45 U Won: 13.25 U Lost: 8.50 U Net:+ 4.75 U
NCAA Completed Picks ** 9/1/11 - BGSU over Idaho, +100: 2.00 U to win 2.00 U - WIN ** 9/1/11 - UNLV +34.5 over Wisconsin: -110, 2.20 U to win 2.00 - WIN * 9/2/11 - Baylor over TCU, +145: 1.00 U to win 1.45 U - WIN ***PARLAY: 9/3/11 - UCLA ml, Michigan -14, Minnesota +24.5, Oregon - 3, Boise State -3.5, +2875: 5.00 U to win 143.73 U - LOSS *** 9/3/11 - Boise State -3.5 over Georgia, -110: 5.50 U to win 5.00 U - WIN * 9/4/11 - Texas A&M/SMU UNDER +145: 1.00 U to win 1.45 U - LOSS ** 9/5/11 - Miami over Maryland, Moneyline, +160: 2.50 U to win 4.00 U - LOSS ** 9/5/11 - Miami/Maryland OVER 47, +112: 2.50 U to win 2.80 U - WIN
NFL Completed Picks
NFL Props (Outstanding)
** Green Bay Packers Regular Season Wins UNDER 11.5; -145: 2.90 U to win 2.00 U *** Minnesota Vikings Regular Season Wins OVER 7; -125: 6.25 U to win 5.00 U ** New York Jets Regular Season Wins OVER 10; +115: 2.00 U to win 2.30 U *** Seattle Seahawks Regular Season Wins OVER 6.5; +180: 5.00 U to win 9.00 U ** Washington Redskins Regular Season Wins OVER 6.5; +150: 2.00 U to win 3.00 U ** Arizona Cardinals Regular Season Wins UNDER 6.5; +180: 2.00 U to win 3.60 U ** Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Wins OVER 10.5; +150: 2.00 U to win 3.00 U ** Buffalo Bills Regular Season Wins OVER 5.5; -125U 2.50 to win 2.00 U ** Cleveland Browns Regular Season Wins UNDER 6.5; +140: 2.00 U to win 2.80 U ** Dallas Cowboys Regular Season Wins OVER 9; +100: 2.00 U to win 2.00 U *** Field vs. Patriots to win AFC East; +140: 5.00 U to win 7.00 U ** Field vs. Eagles to win NFC East; +110: 2.00 U to win 2.20 U ** Field vs. Packers to win NFC North; +210: 2.00 U to win 4.20 U ** Tennessee Titans to make the playoffs; +315: 2.00 U to win 6.30 U *** Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs; +230: 5.00 U to win 11.50 U *** St. Louis to make the playoffs; +155: 5.00 U to win 7.75 U
Week of September 8th-12th NFL Week 1; NCAA Week 2 Picks
(as of Tuesday, September 6th)
NCAA * Toledo + 19 vs Ohio State; -110: 1.10 U to win 1.00 U
NFL ** Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Detroit Lions; +105: 2.00 U to win 2.10 U ** Detroit Lions ML vs. Tampa Bay Bucs; +105: 2.00 U to win 2.10 U *** Carolina Panthers ML vs. Arizona Cardinals; +265: 5.00 U to win 13.25 U ** New England Patriots -8 vs. Miami Dolphins; +110: 2.00 U to win 2.20 U * New Orleans Saints ML vs. Green Bay Packers; +185: 1.00 U to win 1.85 U
** New York Jets -4 vs. Dallas Cowboys; -110: 2.00 U to win 1.82 U
--- 3 TEAM TEASER --- *** Buffalo Bills + 10 vs Kansas City Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings +15 vs. San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts +14 vs. Houston Texans
5.00 U to win 10.00 U
--- 5 TEAM TEASER --- ***
Cincinnati Bengals +13 vs. Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals/Cleveland Browns OVER 29.5 Points
Washington Redskins + 9 vs. New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks +11 vs. San Fransisco 49ers
Oakland Raiders + 9 vs. Denver Broncos
5.00 U to win 23.25 U
-- 4 TEAM PARLAY --- *** Detroit Lions ML vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Atlanta Falcons ML vs. Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks ML vs. San Fransisco 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles/St. Louis Rams OVER 44
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
TwentyLion's 2011-12 Football Thread
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