Many of you may have followed me and my system last season. I am looking forward to a new season, and I hope you enjoy my picks. Good Luck!!
** 2 Unit Picks** Vikings +5
Lines makers are giving the Saints the edge at home tonight. This is to be expected, but my system sees some value in the Vikings. Defense and the ability to run the ball will make the difference tonight. Emotions will be high in New Orleans tonight, but I expect the Vikings to get revenge for last season’s NFC Championship by pulling off the upset in a hostile environment. My system has this game capped as a pickem with a total of 50.5. Thus, my prediction is that the Vikings win this game by a score of 27-24. Good luck and enjoy the first NFL game of the season!
Overall Record (0-0-1) -.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (0-0-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units
Total Unit Based Record (0-0-.2) -.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (0.00%)
I have three picks to kick off the first Sunday of NFL action. Below are the picks with analysis:
Broncos +3 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): According to my system, the wrong team is favored in this matchup. I have this game capped at Broncos -3. Orton should have time to look for his receivers today, as he goes up against a Jags defense that has struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. In fact, the Jags had only 14 sacks last season (worst in the NFL with the next closest team being the Chiefs with 22). The Jags are a team that thrived on 3rd down last year, converting 45.1% of their 3rd down opportunities. The Broncos must get them off the field when they have the chance. 3rd down conversion % will likely be a telling statistic at the end of this game. Look for the Broncos to win this game by the score of 23-20.
Panthers +6 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): I expect the Panthers to be much improved this season with Moore starting at quarterback and two very dangerous running backs in Stewart and Williams. My system has Carolina defeating the Giants by 1 point. Per my ratings, the Giants had the most ineffective defense in the league last season, and I’m not sure if we will see much improvement this season. The Giants allowed opposing quarterbacks to have an average quarterback rating of 93.16, which was fourth worst in the league. Look for Moore to have a good game today, but I expect us to see a large dose of Stewart and Williams. I predict that the Panthers will win by the score of 23-21. Upset Alert!!!
Cardinals -3.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): Quarterback questions abound in this matchup. Who will step up? The Cardinals released Leinart and cleared the way for Anderson to be the undisputed starter. In my opinion, this clears the air and takes a lot of stress off of Anderson. Now he just has to play football. The Rams were highly inefficient on offense and ineffective on defense last season. I don’t expect that to change overnight. The Rams defense was shredded by opposing quarterbacks and struggled to get off the field on 3rd down. Fitzgerald has a big day today, as the Cardinals win by 10+ points. I predict that the Cardinals win by the final score of 27-14.
Overall Record (1-2-1) -3.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-1) -3.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1-1) -.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units
Total Unit Based Record (2-5.5-.2) -3.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (25.97%)
Tough start to the NFL season yesterday, and I only have one small play for tonight. Good luck and remember that this is a marathon not a sprint! We get stronger as the season progresses.
Chargers -4.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): A contrarian at heart, I try not to make it a habit of siding with the public, but my system has a small play on Phillip Rivers and the Chargers tonight. Sure they have question marks. Will they miss LT? Can they win with Vincent Jackson suspended? Last season, the Chargers had the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL according to my ratings. Unfortunately, they only averaged 3.3 yards per rush, which was worst in the league. Maybe trading LT was the right move. My system has this game capped at Chargers -8. I predict that Rivers shreds this Chiefs defense and the Chargers win by a score of 27-17. Good luck and enjoy Monday Night Football!
Overall Record (1-3-1) -4.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-1) -3.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1-1) -.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-1) -1.1 Units Total Unit Based Record (2-6.6-.2) -4.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (22.73%)
Coming off of a great Saturday in college football, I hope to see continued success this week in the NFL. The lines are tight, but I have found value in three of the early lines. Last week was tough, but many times, the first few weeks of NFL action are slow. Remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system is designed to win over long periods of time. Give it time and good luck today! Below are my picks for today:
Cardinals +6.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): After just one week, Atlanta’s offense was ranked 30th in the league (per my ratings). Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense was ranked 7th in defensive effectiveness. I expect for the Falcons to improve their offensive efficiency this week and move towards a more appropriate level for a team with this talent level (ranked 10th-15th in offensive efficiency). My system has the fair value line at PK. Meaning no team has a distinct advantage in this matchup. Thus, this game could be a coin toss, so I want to be on the side getting points.
Bills +13 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): This spread is large for a reason. The Bills struggled to get anything going on offense against the Dolphins last Sunday. Spiller failed to get off to the start that many expected. Thus, Rodgers and the Packers are big favorites this week. It all makes perfect sense, except that we have only played one game. The scary part for Green Bay backers is that 75% of the public agrees with the odds makers. As a contrarian, I hate picking with the public. My system has this line capped at Packers -7. I will take the points and hope that the Bills can generate some offense. Maybe Spiller will have a breakout game this week.
Steelers +5.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): No Roethlisberger, no problem. This Steelers defense stymied the Falcons running game last Sunday, allowing just 58 yards on the ground. Can Johnson break through this defensive front seven? As a Fantasy team owner, I hope so, but for the sake of this pick, I hope that Johnson struggles to get anything going on the ground today. My system has this game capped at Titans +2. A sharp contrast to the Titans -5 we are seeing at most books. Take the points and realize that you may not need them today. This is my UPSET ALERT!!!
This is coming from walterfootball.com: "I really like the Titans to cover the spread here for two reasons. First, this is a big revenge game for them. A loss to Pittsburgh on opening night last year sent them reeling into an 0-6 start.
Second, and more prominently, I can't imagine Pittsburgh coming close to matching the same intensity it had against the Falcons. I loved the Steelers to cover the spread in that game because I knew they'd play at 110 percent with Ben Roethlisberger out. Really good teams simply step up in the first game without their best player. This does not, however, apply to the second game.
In nearly every instance I've tracked over the years, a team missing its star quarterback for a second contest really struggled after winning that first game. This is only natural; in such a physical sport, it's nearly impossible to bring 110 percent to the table two weeks in a row."
so be warned about this game good luck either way ...
Overall Record (2-5-1) -9.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-3) -9.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (2-1-1) +1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-1) -1.1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (4-13.2-.2) -9.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (22.99%)
Yesterday was tough. The Cardinals and Bills took it on the chin, but the Steelers managed to pull off the upset in Nashville. Tonight should get us back on the right track. Below is my pick:
49ers +5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): The Saints love the spotlight. They excel when the lights are on and the pressure is high. Unfortunately for the Saints they are running into a hungry 49ers team tonight. The 49ers struggled on offense and defense last week, but looking back to last season the 49ers ranked second in defensive effectiveness (per my ratings). Plus, their offense was ranked seventh in offensive efficiency (per my ratings). In my opinion, these statistics represent the true 49ers. Look for this team to bounce back in a big way on Monday Night Football. This game will likely go back and forth with several lead changes. My system has the 49ers losing by no more than a field goal, but I would not be surprised to see the 49ers pull of f the upset. Thus, I’m putting the Saints on UPSET ALERT!!! Good luck tonight!
Overall Record (3-5-1) -7.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-3) -9.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (3-1-1) +3.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-1) -1.1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (6-13.2-.2) -7.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (30.93%)
Today, I have two big 4 Unit Picks. Both are dogs traveling to tough venues, but I am confident that both teams can walk away with the “W” if they play up to their numbers. Thus far, we have had a slow start to the NFL season, but I fully expect today to be a step in the right direction. Good and enjoy the picks!!
Titans +3 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): I have the Giants finishing no better than 3rd in the NFC East this season. Something just seems to be missing with this team. The Titans are coming off a mistake laden loss to the Steelers last Sunday, and they will be hungry for a win. Both the Titans and the Colts lost last Sunday. The difference between the two teams seems to lie on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, the Giants were dead last in defensive effectiveness according to my ratings, and they have showed very little improvement this season (ranked 30th currently). In contrast, the Titans are shutting teams down on 3rd down and forcing big plays. In fact, the Titans have only allowed their foes to convert only 17.2% of their 3rd down attempts. The Giants are allowing opponents to convert 42.9% of their 3rd down attempts. My system has the Titans winning this game by a touchdown. UPSET ALERT!!
Falcons +3.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): The public loves the Saints! They have a flashy offense and a defense that creates big plays. What is not to love? For starters, the Saints’ defense has allowed opponents to convert 45.5% of their 3rd down attempts and have only managed only 1 sack (tied for last in the NFL). Secondly, they no longer have one of their most dangerous weapons (Reggie Bush is out with an injury). Finally, the public loves the Saints. According to my system, this line is based entirely off of last season’s stats and public perception. I have this game capped at Saints +4.5. There is definitely some value in this line. In fact, I would not be surprised to see the Falcons pick up a win in this division rivalry game. UPSET ALERT!!
Overall Record (7-6-1) +3.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-3) -9.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-1-1) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-2) -2.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (18-14.3-.2) +3.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.38%)
Yesterday was a great day! Both the Titans and the Falcons pulled off the upsets leading the way to a 4-1 day with two 4 Unit WINNERS!! Tonight, I have no picks. The line is very tight, and I would encourage everyone to wait until next weekend. Once again, there is NO VALUE IN TONIGHT'S LINE. Good luck to those that chance it!!
Overall Record (7-6-1) +3.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-3) -9.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-1-1) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-2) -2.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (18-14.3-.2) +3.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.38%)
Panthers +12.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): This is a spread that will be covered due to a solid running game. Williams and Stewart have started slow this season, but look for them to get on track today against a Saint’s team that is allowing 4.39 yards per rush. The longer Brees sits on the sideline, the greater the likelihood that the Panthers cover this 12.5 point spread. My system has the fair value line at Saints -7. Good luck and enjoy the NFL action!
Qustion: Any way you can exploit opening lines? I ask because the Panthers line opened at 15. I got it at 13.5 last week but I was pissed I let it go threw a key number. That hurts long term.
Overall Record (8-8-1) +4.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-3) -6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-1-1) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-4) -4.4 Units
Total Unit Based Record (21-16.5-.2) +4.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.70%)
Bucs +7 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): The Bucs are coming off of a bye week, and they are playing a Bengals team that is recovering from a tough loss the Browns last week. My system has the fair value line at Bengals +1. This may come as a shock to many, but I fully expect this game to be decided by less than a field goal either way.
Eagles +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): The Eagles have several question marks, but what team doesn’t. The key to this game will be the Eagle’s defense. This Eagles defense has 12 sacks this season and they are holding quarterbacks to an average rating of 61.22. Combine this with Smith’s struggles thus far this season, and I don’t expect him to have much success. My system has the fair value line at 49ers +8. Thus, I am putting the 49ers on UPSET ALERT!
Overall Record (12-10-1) +10.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (3-3) -.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-1-1) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-6) -4.6 Units
Total Unit Based Record (29-18.7-.2) +10.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (60.54%)
No time for write-ups this morning, but below are today’s NFL picks. Nothing above a 2 Unit Pick this week. The lines are tight, and this is far from the best NFL card we will see this season. Take it easy today and enjoy the football. Good luck!
Overall Record (15-13-1) +9.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (3-3) -.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (4-8) -4.8 Units
Total Unit Based Record (33-23.1-.2) +9.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (58.61%)
No time for write-ups this week, but I wish everyone good luck! Enjoy the NFL action!
Overall Record (17-14-1) +12.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-9) -4.9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (37-24.2-.2) +12.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (60.26%)
Giants +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): The Giants will have Romo running for his life tonight. The Giants have logged 21 sacks this season, and opposing quarterbacks have averaged a mere 68.21 quarterback rating. On offense, the Giants will likely try to dominate this Cowboys defense on the ground. The giants are averaging an impressive 4.67 yards per rush, while the Cowboys are allowing teams to average 4.24 yards per rush. Manning will likely see favorable 3rd down yardage due to the Giants running game, which will keep the Cowboys on their heels and allow the Giants to win the time of possession battle (my prediction: 32 minutes Giants to 28 minutes Cowboys). My system has the Giants at -2.5 with a total of 48. Good luck and enjoy this UPSET ALERT!
Overall Record (18-14-1) +13.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (6-9) -3.9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (38-24.2-.2) +13.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (60.90%)
Happy Halloween! Today, we only have three picks. The NFL lines are tight this season. We just have to take the value that is out there and run with it. Good luck and enjoy the NFL action!
Overall Record (18-17-1) +10.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (6-12) -7.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (38-27.5-.2) +10.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (57.84%)
Overall Record (22-19-1) +9.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-3-1) +7.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (9-12) -4.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (43-33-.2) +9.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.43%)
We had a great day yesterday, and I am expecting more of the same today in the NFL. Good luck!!
Overall Record (23-23-1) +5.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-3-1) +9.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (9-15) -7.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (45-39.6-.2) +5.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.07%)
Bears +1.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): According to my system, the wrong team is favored to win tonight’s game. My one fear is that the Dolphin’s convert 45.7% of their 3rd down attempts. Fortunately, we have Thigpen at the helm tonight, and I fully expect this Bear’s defense to keep him guessing. Per my ratings, the Bear’s have the 2nd most effective defense in the NFL, and opposing quarterbacks have an average rating of just 65.62 when they face these “Monsters of the Midway.” My system has the Bears winning this game by the score of 21-17 despite allowing Miami to outgain them by more than 40 total yards of offense. Good luck and enjoy this UPSET ALERT!
Overall Record (24-23-1) +6.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-3-1) +9.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (10-15) -6.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (46-39.6-.2) +6.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.61%)
Yesterday was ugly. We went 3-9 in college football and need to bounce back in a big way today. My system has 8 NFL picks that have a high probability of hitting. Good luck and enjoy today’s NFL action!
Lions +6 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS at home this season, and my system has the fair value line for this game at Cowboys +2.5. Don’t worry about the fact that the Lions will be starting Hill today, and they lost to the Bills last Sunday. Per my ratings, the Cowboys’ defense ranks 30th in effectiveness, and they allow opposing teams to an average quarterback rating of 103.65. Hill should be able to settle into a groove today and pull off the “upset.” Thus, I am putting the Cowboys on UPSET ALERT, and predicting that the Lions win by the score of 26-23.
Seahawks +11 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Packers/Vikings Under 45 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Overall Record (26-29-1) -4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-7) -11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-5-1) +6.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-17) -7.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (49-52.8-.2) -4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.04%)
Happy Thanksgiving to all that read this thread! Good luck and please enjoy this time with family and friends! Maybe you can even watch a little NFL action with the family. Just a thought.
Lions +6.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): The Lions are the best two win team in the NFL. Injuries and bad breaks have plagued this team all season. Thanksgiving will provide this Lions team with a little time in the spotlight, and I expect to see them take full advantage of this opportunity. The Patriot’s have the most efficient offense in the NFL, but their defense is shaky. The Patriot’s defense allows opponents to convert 50.7% of their 3rd down attempts. Not to mention the fact that opposing quarterbacks have an average quarterback rating of 93.6. These stats bode well for a Lion’s offense that is ranked 6th in offensive efficiency (per my ratings). Obviously, my number one concern is whether or not the Lion’s defense can slow down Brady. In my opinion, the key to this game will be the Lion’s ability to rush the passer. Thus far, the Lion’s defense has forced 27 sacks. If they can do this tomorrow, we may see the Lions pick up their third win this season. My system has the fair value line for this game at Lions -1. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!
Overall Record (26-32-1) -10.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-1) +3.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-7) -11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-5-1) +6.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-19) -9.9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (49-59.4-.2) -10.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (45.12%)
Titans +6 (Risking 5.5 Units to Win 5 Units): The Underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. Plus, the Titans have the edge on offense and defense in this matchup. Per my ratings, the Titans have the 2nd most efficient offense and the 4th most effective defense in the NFL. This may leave you scratching your head, but statistically speaking, the Titans are the best .500 team in the NFL. The Titans have question marks at quarterback, but what better team to face than the Texans. The Texans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to have an average quarterback rating of 107.71. It may not matter who is throwing the ball for the Titans. My system has the fair value line for this game at Titans -6. Good luck and enjoy this UPSET ALERT!
Packers/Falcons Under 47.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Overall Record (28-33-1) -13.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-1) +3.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-7) -11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (10-5-1) +8.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (12-19) -8.9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (52-64.9-.2) -13.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (44.41%)
Overall Record (30-35-1) -15.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-1) +3.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-8) -14.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (11-6-1) +8.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (13-19) -7.9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (55-70.4-.2) -15.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (43.79%)
Tomorrow's picks are posted below:
Packers +14 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units)
Redskins +7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Jets/Steelers Over 35.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Overall Record (33-36-1) -8.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-1) +7.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-8) -14.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (13-6-1) +12.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (13-20) -9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (63-71.5-.2) -8.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (46.77%)
Below are today's picks:
Vikings +13.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Redskins +7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Jets/Bears Over 36 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Vikings/Eagles Over 37 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Both picks for the Vikings/Eagles game are cancelled due to inclement weather. Please check back later for updated picks on this game. Good luck, and I hope everyone enjoyed going 2-0 today!!
Overall Record (35-36-1) -5.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-1) +7.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-8) -14.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (14-6-1) +12\4.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (14-20) -8 Units
Total Unit Based Record (66-71.5-.2) -5.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.93%)
Below are Tuesday night's picks:
Vikings +13.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Vikings/Eagles Over 37 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): Only take this if you can get this total at 38 or lower. This will likely only be the case if you locked it in very early. Good luck!
Overall Record (37-36-1) -1.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-1) +7.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-8) -11.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (14-6-1) +14.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (15-20) -7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (70-71.5-.2) -1.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.40%)
Overall Record (38-36-1) +2.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-1) +11.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-8) -11.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (14-6-1) +14.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (15-20) -7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (74-71.5-.2) +2.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.79%)
My system is an astonishing 8-1 on its last 9 NFL picks. Look for that to continue as we move through the Playoffs. Today’s picks are posted below:
Chiefs +3 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Packers +2.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): The Packers begin their journey to the Super Bowl today against Vick and the Eagles. The key to this game is the Packer’s defense. Per my ratings, the Packers have the most effective defense in the NFL. They have 47 sacks this season and they have held opposing quarterbacks to an average quarterback rating of 64.6. Look for the Packers to pressure a banged up Michael Vick and force some turnovers. My system has the Packers winning this game by 2+ points. Thus, I am putting the Eagles on UPSET ALERT!
Overall Record (39-37-1) +2.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-1) +11.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-8) -11.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (15-7-1) +14.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (15-20) -7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (76-73.7-.2) +2.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.70%)
I have two picks for Sunday’s Playoff games. Per my system, both underdogs should keep these games within 6 points. Good luck and enjoy the action!!
Overall Record (40-38-1) +3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-1) +11.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-8) -11.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (15-21) -8.1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (78-74.8-.2) +3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.98%)
Above is my updated record. Unfortunately, my sytem does not have any picks for today's games. Both lines are accurate. Should be an exciting day of NFL action. Below are my predicted lines for the 4 possible Super Bowl matchups:
Steelers/Packers: Packers -.5 with a Total of 38
Steelers/Bears: Steelers -3 with a Total of 38.5
Jets/Packers: Packers -3 with a Total of 40.5
Jets/Bears: Jets -.5 with a Total of 40.5
After looking at these predicted lines and the predicted outcomes of today's games, I feel very confident that we will see the Steelers and the Packers playing in the Super Bowl. Good luck and enjoy today's action!!!
Overall Record (40-38-1) +3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-1) +11.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-8) -11.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (15-21) -8.1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (78-74.8-.2) +3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.98%)
Here we are on Super Bowl Sunday with kickoff just hours away. The spread is right on with the Packers having the slight edge at -3, but the Total of 44.5 is too high. Per my system, we have the top two defenses in the NFL squaring off tonight. 57% of the Packers games this season have ended with a total less than 44.5, while 66% of the Steelers games have ended with a total less than 44.5. My system predicts that the final score of tonight's game will be 20-17 in favor of the Packers. Good luck to those that pick a side!
Steelers/Packers Under 44.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units)
Overall Record (40-39-1) -1.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-8) -11.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (15-21) -8.1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (78-79.2-.2) -1.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.56%)
Finally getting around to updating my record as I prepare for next fall. Definitely a dissapointing year in NFL and College Football for my system, but remember that this is a system designed to work over long periods of time. Meaning, you willl not win every week or even every season. I hope everyone enjoys the Kentucky Derby today!
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***The Knuckleballers 2010-2011 NFL Tracking Thread***
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