[Tom Rodgers]

Kentucky should win this game by at least 7 and that's why I like the -4 line for the Wildcats tonight. They are a young, but powerful team coming it number 11 on the power scale going up against the Tide who come in at 174. If history repeats itself here are the trends: Alabama is 1-4 ATS and 1-4 SU in its last 5 when playing at home against Kentucky. Kentucky has been know to throw up some points averaging 80 a game. Overall their defense only allows 62 while Alabama goes for 68 and allows 57. I love a matchup where the defense's are about the same, but one offense out scores the other on average. I used this same formula in last nights win with Kansas -3.5 vs Baylor and it paid out big time. Take into account that Kentucky has lost 3 games against Uconn, North Carolina, and Georgia. All very good teams. Alabama has lost 7 there biggest defeat was at #18 Purdue and tonight they've got to face #12 Kentucky.

[Chandler]

Tom, how would you compare the schedules of Kentucky and Bama? what is your take on the experience factor?

[DerekMadden]

Kentucky has seen way better opponents..

alabama is in the sec west and last week lost to Arkansas..

Alabama's D is fairly good but down the strectch i.e. (2h 6-9 minutes left) their shooting becomes very lack luster
which is where i think Kentucky either extends the lead or if behind a by very little at the most, pulls ahead and Alabama becomes disheartened and starts to take poor shots and Kentucky never looks back

Kentucky wins by 7+

[Tom Rodgers]

I use the Ratings Percentage Index which I pull information from team rankings.com to tell me how a team plays within their schedule. When it comes to a young team, typically they are not good at the free throw line in pressure situations. So what I look for in a matchup like this is the team that can outscore their opponent without the added pressure of being away from home and having to win behind the line.

[Tom Rodgers]

Kentucky has seen way better opponents..

alabama is in the sec west and last week lost to Arkansas..

Alabama's D is fairly good but down the strectch i.e. (2h 6-9 minutes left) their shooting becomes very lack luster
which is where i think Kentucky either extends the lead or if behind a by very little at the most, pulls ahead and Alabama becomes disheartened and starts to take poor shots and Kentucky never looks back

Kentucky wins by 7+

I agree with the defense, in a lot of the key categories they match up, but once fatigue and frustration sets in Alabama will colapse as long as Kentucky keeps on making baskets and causing turnovers.

[Tom Rodgers]

I'd like to see a fast start like that Auburn game.

[Regul8er]

If Kentucky hits open looks and gets ahead, Bama simply doesn't have the firepower to play catch up.
If kentucky cant hit open looks, this thing will come down to the wire, with the first to 60 winning.

Don't think for a second Coach Cal will overlook Alabama. His boys will be as focused as if they were playing Vandy or Louisville. Focus and execution doesn't always go hand in hand though.

[LockPickMaster]

KenPom
UK 67 Bama 60

RealtimeRPI.com
UK 79 Bama 69

[BigDofBA]

People are saying this game is a trap and sharp money is on Bama????

I took Kentucky.

I watched Bama play Oklahoma State and wasn't impressed. They didn't look that good to me. This is a team that is 10-7 and has lost to teams like St. Peters. When Bama has played anyone decent that have lost.

I don't think Kentucky is a lock by any means but I feel like they cover this. Small play on Kentucky.

[Tom Rodgers]

Great comments and insight on the game tonight. I'm ready for tipoff.

[Tom Rodgers]

Wow Alabama is making some incredible last second three's and Kentucky needs to just drive to the basket. They looked great at the start, but now they're in trouble. This is where a young team can fall apart. Second half corrections have to be coming, Calipari is losing his mind right now.

[allenc85]

Gotta like both Kentucky and Under 2nd half - I seriously doubt Bama keeps shooting they way they have, think Kentucky may route them second half

[Tom Rodgers]

Gotta like both Kentucky and Under 2nd half - I seriously doubt Bama keeps shooting they way they have, think Kentucky may route them second half

I felt the same way on my initial assesment of the game, I just don't like the ball handling of Kentucky right now. Mainly, I like a comfortable lead with the team I'm betting with, second half here we come.

[laxbrah420]

nvm

[ukbsktbll]

Well when they cant hit any FTs or rebound they cant do anything

[Tom Rodgers]

Well we talked about youth and if it came down to the wire that alabama would prevail. Kentucky overcame a 20pt deficit so I know they've got some potential in March, but as for tonight they beat themselves.