[stevenash]

UConn -26.5 is the largest point spread of any opening round game since Duke in 2002.

Every NCAA tournament since 2007 has seen at least one thirteen seed or worse win an opening round game with an average of two upset wins per tournament with the lone exception in 2017.
Every tournament is different of course, but history tells us to expect at least one major first round upset.

The MAC conference has proven to be a money maker for dog bettors.
Nine of the last 14 teams from the MAC to have made the tournament either has won a first-round game outright or kept the game within single digits.

(Akron anybody, the Zips came within inches of upsetting UCLA in 2022, and a lot of that team is still together).

Akron HC John Groce has four tournament wins, in 2010 as HC for Ohio he won a first-round game as a 14 seed, then in 2012 took 13 seed Ohio to the sweet sixteen.

Akron has a stout defense giving up just 65 points a game, plays a slowdown deliberate offense, that can frustrate Creighton.

Not for nothing, Enrique Freeman (Akron) led the nation in rebounds (13 per game)
I really like Akron +12.5 against Creighton.


Staying with the 13 seed or worse scenarios.

Don't sleep on the CAA (Charleston)
The CAA is 11-5-1 ATS in the tournament since 2011.

Patriot League (Colgate)
The Patriot League has pulled off some of the most monumental upsets in tournament history.
Lehigh over Duke, and Bucknell over Kansas.

Other sleeper doggies that could upset (or cover)
Vermont, who actually has the ninth best scoring defense in the nation, and keep an eye on Morehead State and Oakland.

More later as the week moves on.

[stevenash]

Only two #16 seeds have defeated a #1 seed.
UMBC over Virginia, and Fairly Ridiculous (FDU) that's a running joke here in the northeast over Purdue.

Four #15 seeds have advanced to the sweet sixteen.
Like Fairleigh Dickinson (which is the largest private school in NJ) two of them are also NJ universities.
Princeton and St. Peter's.

Two St. Peter's fun facts.
The only #15 seed to ever reach the elite eight is St. Peter's, and St. Peter's is only one of two schools to have won a sweet sixteen game as a +13 underdog (largest ever)