[fsu2010]

After a lot of time spent researching and figuring out what I thought to be true odds, I have made what I think will be my final futures picks for the tournament this year. Unfortunately there aren't too many reputable sites that have been doing futures all season, so the majority of these were booked through one site (some earlier in the season and some very recent. Not sure if I'm allowed to shout out the site I found some of these lines at, but if I am let me know and I'll hook you up). This is important, please understand that I do not believe any of these teams have a real shot at actually winning the tournament, however, I plan on hedging bets once the tournament starts. I used a few different methods for determining which teams had a lot of value. The most important part of the decision to pick these teams is their ability (in my opinion) to win their first (and possibly second/third round games etc.). This is what I have so far:

Marquette 100:1 50.00/5,000.00 - I believe this line is still on (Xsite) at 100:1. I think there is a lot of value in this pick because of the type of team Marquette is. Not only do they keep all of their games close, but they certainly have the guards (which is a key factor in winning tournament games). The only problem they had all season was lacking the big men. Marquette not only plays a lot of their games to overtime, they win the majority of them. Most of their OT wins this season have also been away games, showing they have no problem winning on the road. With Marquette's late season run, they should have no problem attaining a 6-7 seed. If Marquette is able to beat ND tomorrow and do well in the BE tournament earning a 6 seed, they will certainly be able to win their first round game. Their second round game (probably against a 3 seed) will be surprisingly easier than though. 3-6 matchups are something around 52%/48%.

Louisville 75:1 50.00/3,750.00 - I think this pick is a no brainer as long as Louisville actually makes it into the tournament. I have actually been waiting all season to get Louisville at over 60:1 (they were sitting between 30-45:1 all year). I think this line is still up on (Site X) as well. Louisville is obviously another great/quick shooting team. Add in the fact that they have an experienced/great coach, they could also be a sweet 16 team.

Florida State 100:1 50.00/5,000.00 - I like Florida State at these odds for many of the same reasons I like Marquette (as far as playing teams close and playing well on the road). FSU has shown signs of life towards the end of the season. If they can continue to shoot the way they've been shooting in the last 3 games, I think people are going to be surprised by them. Dulkys hit a real cold streak towards the middle of conference play this season, but has been able to pull himself out the slump. Lulu has also been playing much better, and he is slowly developing into somewhat of a shooting PG (which FSU desperately needs, we have had no real PG since I can remember. He's not perfect, but at least it's a step). Add in the size factor (FSU is the tallest team in division 1) with Alibi at 7'1 and Xavier Gibson at 6'11 and you have a team. Oh did I mention Michael Snaer getting into the starting lineup and starting to ball out. Man that kid can drive to the basket. Jordan Demercy leaving the team looks to have done wonders for FSU.

Gonzaga 50:1 60.00/3,000.00 - This one is obvious. Don't think this needs any explaining. Zaga is notoriously an awesome tournament team.

Wisconsin 50:1 75.00/3,750.00 - This is another team I think there is a TON of value in at this price. Wisconsin is one of the most underrated teams in the nation. Leuer also missed nine games in the middle of the conference schedule this season. With him back, along with Bohannon and Hughes, Wisconsin is going to be a tough team to beat. They have a good deal of quality wins this season, including huge out of conference wins over Duke, Maryland, and Marquette. Wisconsin is also a team that will not really be an underdog to any team (at least until they get to the sweet 16, and even then, probably not much of an dog) which is huge when I start to hedge.

Missouri 100:1 100.00/10,000.00 - This pick probably has the most value out of any futures pick I've seen out. This just makes no sense (the line has been 100:1 all season, still is). Missouri is a quick team that is going to make any team they play run the entire game. I don't think Mizzou will have too much trouble winning their first game, and the good thing about this pick is that Mizzou will not be a huge underdog to any team they play. This is essential when hedging bets starts to come into play.

Texas 10:1 50.00/500 - Obviously took this one a couple of months ago. I think they're getting 18:1 now, but I'm not too upset about it. I think Texas is going to be playing much better once the Big 12 tournament starts. Look for them to wake up and suprise you).

Xavier 100:1 50.00/5,000.00 - Got this bet in about a month ago and am really happy about getting them at this value. Xavier has been notorious for not only playing well on the road, but playing well in the tournament. This school has a lot of experience and is definitely capable of winning a few big games. Xavier has not lost to a team out of the top 40 all season. Their worst loss being a double OT loss at Wake Forest (which is by no means a bad loss). They have also been involved in 2 other 2OT games this season (2-1) against top 60 teams (Cincinnati and Richmond). I'm not sure exactly what seed Xavier is going to earn (depends on A10 tournament), but I can assure you that the A10 has become quite a strong conference. This team is by no means a joke, in fact, I have them being a top 20 team.

[fsu2010]

I'd also like to add that Florida State has a top 5 defense in the nation. I forgot to talk about Chris Singleton. When that kid starts to light it up, he is just sick. One of the best defenders in the nation. At 6'9, he plays much bigger, and is still quick enough to guard almost anyone they have played against. As long as FSU can continue to keep the offensive turnovers down and shoot like they have recently, they won't even need Alibi to ball out. (Alibi being a lottery pick is he decides to leave this season btw). They are 3 possible future NBA players on this team (Alibi, Singleton, and Gibson).

[chaka]

zags mystique still living off the 99-01 runs IMO -where they were 7-3 in 3 tourneys as a 10,10 and 12 seed

since then 8-8 including 3 first round knockouts

2002 as #6 los to #11 R1
2003 as # 9 beat #8 lost to #1
2004 as # 2 beat # 15 lost to # 10
2005 as # 3 beat # 14 lost to # 6
2006 as # 3 beat #14 beat # 6 lost to # 2
2007 as # 10 lost to # 7 R1
2008 as # 7 lost to # 10 R 1
2009 as # 4 beat # 13 beat # 12 lost to # 1

great win % against the bottom bracket dogs, cant beat the top seeds and avg against mid seeds
last 8 teams only have 1 more win than than 3 yr 99-01 teams

[2daBank]

Mizzou at 100 to 1 is crazy of coarse they been getting disrespected by lots of ppl all year, depending on whether or not they get screwed in the seedings id say they will present you a great hedge opportunity when they make the sweet 16

[fsu2010]

Mizzou at 100 to 1 is crazy of coarse they been getting disrespected by lots of ppl all year, depending on whether or not they get screwed in the seedings id say they will present you a great hedge opportunity when they make the sweet 16

For what it's worth, the line on Missouri is still open at 100:1. I thought about putting more money on it, but it's already my biggest future bet of the year. I really think that this line is so far off, I just don't understand it. If you're interested in knowing where I get the lines, just ask and I'll PM it to you or something.

[2daBank]

sure send it to me if you dont mind....my guess is it drops if Mizzou fuks around and beats Ku today, which is very possible