1. 12-15-20 12:43 PM #1
    Orbison
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    Bonnies/Akron Under continues to be steamed - opportunity here?

    opened 143.5, down now to 135 at Heritage

    i'm tempted to fade this movement like yesterday's W&M/GW total which got steamed Under

    one important question, however, is if any key guys are out for either side or the Bonnies specifically? anyone have any info on that?

    the premise for wanting to play Over 135 now would be - first game for Bonnies and first D1 game for Akron - usually non-conference openers like this tend to be more free-flowing and the coaches let their guys run and get up and down a bit putting up shots, get them back in the flow. they're not nearly as structured as being 2 weeks into the season and in conference where things slow down a bunch and become much more disciplined with offensive sets and such

    anyone else have similar thinking and on the Over already?
    Last edited by Orbison; 12-15-20 at 12:46 PM.
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  2. 12-15-20 12:49 PM #2
    Orbison
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    a little buyback on the Over coming in now.. 136/136.5 out there now
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  3. 12-15-20 12:57 PM #3
    Orbison
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    no carolinakid around yet today hah
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  4. 12-15-20 01:01 PM #4
    CappinTerp
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    Fade....fade and fade..it may not come in here....but this has been the trend all season.Working on a video and this will be the the main topic , to tail or fade this point. Today on this game I bet the OVER 64 1st half.................................... ........good luck !
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  5. 12-15-20 01:01 PM #5
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Wondering why my local has taking down all bets for NCAAB
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  6. 12-15-20 01:11 PM #6
    Orbison
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    Quote Originally Posted by CappinTerp View Post
    Fade....fade and fade..it may not come in here....but this has been the trend all season.Working on a video and this will be the the main topic , to tail or fade this point. Today on this game I bet the OVER 64 1st half.................................... ........good luck !
    you're making a vid specifically on when to fade line movement? sounds cool, will be interested in seeing it. good luck on this 1H Over friend
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  7. 12-15-20 01:18 PM #7
    lonegambler23
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    Wondering why my local has taking down all bets for NCAAB

    locals lmao
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  8. 12-15-20 01:22 PM #8
    Orbison
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    Wondering why my local has taking down all bets for NCAAB
    pph software problem?
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  9. 12-15-20 01:23 PM #9
    stevenash
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    This game is OTB now at Heritage.
    I have no clue as to what's up.
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  10. 12-15-20 01:27 PM #10
    Orbison
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    it started 30 mins ago steve hah

    edit: or did you mean live betting potential?
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  11. 12-15-20 01:33 PM #11
    The Hat
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    lookin good for the over, Roy. On a pretty good first half pace so far at the under 8min tv timeout
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  12. 12-15-20 01:36 PM #12
    CappinTerp
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    Both teams in bonus,first half should come in.
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  13. 12-15-20 01:36 PM #13
    The Hat
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    Quote Originally Posted by CappinTerp View Post
    Both teams in bonus,first half should come in.
    superstrong play cap
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  14. 12-15-20 01:37 PM #14
    Orbison
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    pace is extremely fast but each team missing a ton of bunnies and uncontested 3's, this one would really be flying otherwise
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  15. 12-15-20 01:49 PM #15
    Orbison
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    big dead period of scoring could help 2H Over number, interested to see what it is
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  16. 12-15-20 01:49 PM #16
    The Hat
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    46 pts thru the first 12 min and in the bonus.....haven't had a chance to see the game. Did they go zone for the remainder of the 1H?
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  17. 12-15-20 01:53 PM #17
    CappinTerp
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    Win / loose fading these college hoop totals make sense .
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  18. 12-15-20 01:55 PM #18
    Orbison
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    Hat yeah, each team played some zone yeah, but the story of the 1H was Akron bricking every open 3 they had and both teams missing tons of bunnies in transition and in the paint. Bonnies missed a ton of open looks too. refs really let them play for the most part

    i wonder if the pace will keep up for the 2H or if Bonnies will start using more of the shot clock with the DD lead. Akron will need to continue playing fast since they're down DD so it's a tough call. each team's length is really bothering the other when it comes to trying to finish in the paint but each team has still pushed the pace regardless
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  19. 12-15-20 01:57 PM #19
    The Hat
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    I'm seeing halftime posted game totals of 132.5 or 133.5.........titlted juice on each.

    So, 71.5 or 72.5 second half roundabout equivalent.
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  20. 12-15-20 02:01 PM #20
    Orbison
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    2H Total of 72.5/73 is pretty sharp

    each team shot around 10% from 3 in the 1H which is incredible, you would think these numbers would improve a material amount

    playing 2H over 72.5 would put the total at 133.5 which would give you 3 pts of value vs. the closer
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  21. 12-15-20 02:02 PM #21
    The Hat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orbison View Post
    Hat yeah, each team played some zone yeah, but the story of the 1H was Akron bricking every open 3 they had and both teams missing tons of bunnies in transition and in the paint. Bonnies missed a ton of open looks too. refs really let them play for the most part

    i wonder if the pace will keep up for the 2H or if Bonnies will start using more of the shot clock with the DD lead. Akron will need to continue playing fast since they're down DD so it's a tough call. each team's length is really bothering the other when it comes to trying to finish in the paint but each team has still pushed the pace regardless
    sounds like a lil early season end of half fatigue
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  22. 12-15-20 02:05 PM #22
    The Hat
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    you on the over 2H?

    metrics year to date show Akron playing considerable faster tempo than St Bon
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  23. 12-15-20 02:06 PM #23
    Orbison
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    yeah the game went through a big dead period of scoring where all each team did was race down the floor and miss lay up after lay up, i think that's why each team is shooting so poorly from 3 because they lack the legs to follow through on their shots and thus front rimming most 3's
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  24. 12-15-20 02:06 PM #24
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Bonnies have way more shot attempts, if this keeps up, they should win easily
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  25. 12-15-20 02:07 PM #25
    Orbison
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    Hat i'm laying off 2H
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  26. 12-15-20 02:52 PM #26
    Orbison
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    scoring picking up again, each team feasting in the paint now, offenses far more efficient in the 2H by running more sets and motion

    9 pts away from the Over now
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  27. 12-15-20 03:06 PM #27
    Orbison
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    flies Over original posted total as well, books burn sharp money yet again on a total
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  28. 12-15-20 03:08 PM #28
    CappinTerp
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    Ended up with a split.....be attentive to moves of 4+ points,from the opening line.It's be crazy this season ,saw a 12 pt move last week !

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  29. 12-15-20 03:13 PM #29
    Orbison
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    yep love spotting these
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  30. 12-15-20 04:58 PM #30
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orbison View Post
    it started 30 mins ago steve hah

    edit: or did you mean live betting potential?
    I meant live
    Couldn't get a in game live bet do9wn all of a sudden.
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  31. 12-15-20 05:19 PM #31
    jjgold
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orbison View Post
    flies Over original posted total as well, books burn sharp money yet again on a total
    of course..always fade big moves
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