1. 01-18-20 02:07 PM #1
    KRIT
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    Fading Ranked Road Teams In College Basketball

    Just going to track it in here. Been money pretty much every year in college hoops. Will track spread, if someone wants to track the money line feel free but I’m too lazy to do that.

    As of now, we got 2-1. Lots pending.
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  2. 01-18-20 02:17 PM #2
    asiagambler
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    You could just take 2 seconds and run a query using a free database and get these results instantly. You can even check how it's done all season (53.5%)

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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  3. 01-18-20 02:19 PM #3
    asiagambler
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    53.8% including today's 2-1
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  4. 01-18-20 02:24 PM #4
    KRIT
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    Wow would have thought much better? Is that query showing when teams were top 25 when that game was played?
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  5. 01-18-20 02:31 PM #5
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    Wow would have thought much better? Is that query showing when teams were top 25 when that game was played?
    Yep, you can play around with the rankings too, for instance if you wanted to restrict it to just top 10 at the time:

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    Or if you wanted to see just how ranked away favourites did:

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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  6. 01-18-20 03:17 PM #6
    jjgold
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    Basically just take-home teams that’s what he’s saying against pretty good teams
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  7. 01-18-20 03:23 PM #7
    Jaug
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    Easy money
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  8. 01-18-20 03:32 PM #8
    JIBBBY
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    Sharp betting Krit I agree.. Fading ranked road teams paying off so far today!!!

    https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/scoreboard/
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  9. 01-18-20 03:34 PM #9
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    What's the record if one simply faded all ranked teams (at the time) when they played unranked teams?
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  10. 01-18-20 03:40 PM #10
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    What's the record if one simply faded all ranked teams (at the time) when they played unranked teams?
    There is no web link that shows that I don't think or that I can find??????

    I've noticed that treading and cashing though early on in this college season so far ATS most of the time.. That's why I posted in this thread.
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  11. 01-18-20 03:47 PM #11
    KRIT
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    7-2 so far today.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: JIBBBY
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  12. 01-18-20 03:56 PM #12
    krk1030
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    This year has just been brutal for road teams.

    Although some big wins on the road for Seton hall and Kansas today.
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  13. 01-18-20 03:57 PM #13
    Otters27
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    Good strategy
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  14. 01-18-20 04:12 PM #14
    hehfest
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    I think there may be some correlation between the college football games being over, and less NFL games to bet on. The mush money all moved right to college basketball this weekend. So mush worked all week, then hit the book this weekend or last night. They probably parlayed and teased every one of those ranked teams together in different combos. I don't think this will be a trend though. It was a mush moment. The mushes will probably do it again next weekend but might be taking a weekend off after getting drilled.
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  15. 01-19-20 07:27 AM #15
    jjgold
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    CBB Top 25 teams went 7-12 ATS vs. unranked opponents Saturday with 6 SU losses by No. 4 Auburn, No. 5 Butler, No. 12 West Virginia, No. 16 Wichita State, No. 20 Colorado & No. 21 Ohio State
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  16. 01-19-20 07:29 AM #16
    jjgold
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    Jibby play with this site

    https://killersports.com/
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  17. 01-23-20 10:02 PM #17
    darrell74
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    This thread deserves a bump.

    Happened again tonight with Michigan State at Indiana.
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  18. 01-23-20 10:27 PM #18
    jjgold
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    They seem like they just can’t win
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  19. 01-23-20 11:19 PM #19
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Jibby play with this site

    https://killersports.com/
    Way ahead of you JJ, been looking in on that site for a while now for trend settings....https://killersports.com/nba/trends
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  20. 01-24-20 06:50 AM #20
    jjgold
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    Jibby your always looking for an edge
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  21. 01-24-20 10:09 AM #21
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Jibby your always looking for an edge
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  22. 01-24-20 10:54 AM #22
    jjgold
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    How do you like that site
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  23. 01-24-20 11:47 AM #23
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    How do you like that site
    I like it, little tough to navigate thru it..

    It shows the trends and serves it's purpose..

    This site works too.. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/trends/ats_trends/
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  24. 01-24-20 12:40 PM #24
    CappinTerp
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    Look at the BIG10 home teams winning at a high %...Just last night Indy knocks off Mich.St.
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  25. 01-24-20 03:26 PM #25
    Conqueror
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    Nice to see a thread like this.

    My theory on ranked teams based some years of observation is as follows:
    1) When favored by double digits at home, play them to cover the 1H spread.
    2) When favored on the road by less than 10 points, take the home dog to win SU.
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  26. 01-24-20 05:06 PM #26
    kingdom
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Jibby play with this site

    https://killersports.com/
    lol. which jjgold is this. the normal one says trends don't matter lol. everyone is focused on this, but a much better fade is unranked dogs on the road with lines <10.

    10-35 ats for a 22% cover rate and 17-30 o/u at 36%

    https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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  27. 01-25-20 12:09 AM #27
    steel26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    Nice to see a thread like this.

    My theory on ranked teams based some years of observation is as follows:
    1) When favored by double digits at home, play them to cover the 1H spread.
    2) When favored on the road by less than 10 points, take the home dog to win SU.
    So does Illinois v Michigan game apply to rule 2
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  28. 01-25-20 12:35 AM #28
    silver39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    Nice to see a thread like this.

    My theory on ranked teams based some years of observation is as follows:
    1) When favored by double digits at home, play them to cover the 1H spread.
    2) When favored on the road by less than 10 points, take the home dog to win SU.
    A trend I have been following since December 2nd is taking the "Unranked favorite against a ranked teamed" doesn't matter home or away. Started off 11-0 is now at 15-5-1.

    Not sure if anyone can get that formula in there? The closest I could get was ranked underdogs but its includes against ranked teams


    Tomorrow Michigan and Florida fit this trend
    Last edited by silver39; 01-25-20 at 01:08 AM.
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  29. 01-25-20 12:44 AM #29
    badgerguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by steel26 View Post
    So does Illinois v Michigan game apply to rule 2
    I dont think so cause Michigan is not the dog. -3.5
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  30. 01-25-20 01:05 AM #30
    KRIT
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    Nice input in this thread. Here are the plays to track for tomorrow.

    Michigan -3.5
    Providence +1.5
    Richmomd +6.5
    Texas Tech -4.5
    Arizona State +6
    Florida -2

    Another trend I’ve noticed is playing unranked home faves when they play against a ranked team. So Florida -2 tomorrow.
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  31. 01-25-20 01:08 AM #31
    silver39
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    Another trend I’ve noticed is playing unranked home faves when they play against a ranked team. So Florida -2 tomorrow.
    This fits the trend I was just saying about. Michigan also fits.

    However have found this to be good home or away unranked fav. vs ranked
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  32. 01-25-20 07:52 AM #32
    Jayvegas420
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    Would you still do moneyline if the ranked Road team is playing a higher-ranked home team?
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  33. 01-25-20 12:38 PM #33
    silver39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    Would you still do moneyline if the ranked Road team is playing a higher-ranked home team?
    For the trend I’ve been following no. 1 team must be unranked
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  34. 01-25-20 12:49 PM #34
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingdom View Post
    lol. which jjgold is this. the normal one says trends don't matter lol. everyone is focused on this, but a much better fade is unranked dogs on the road with lines <10.

    10-35 ats for a 22% cover rate and 17-30 o/u at 36%

    https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    Does this apply to all games or only when the unranked team is playing a ranked team?
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  35. 01-25-20 12:51 PM #35
    johnnyvegas13
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    Anyone playing Florida -2

    I almost think Baylor has value as dog
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