Originally Posted by
2daBank
Originally Posted by 2daBank
Originally Posted by 2daBank
12/23
Temple +3..way more battle tested squad here, owls have played the 12th toughest schedule in the country. Uga has a few decent wins but against softies like st Mary's and Marquette. Owls way more hard nosed squad than those teams and don't think uga physicality will bother them. I do worry a little bit about about offensive rebounding but think the advantage uga has there will be offset by temple winning the turnover battle. Ultimately as we talked about with Uga the other day they need to get to the foul line to have much success offensively and owls rank 10th in the country in ft allowed. Uga did have a unreal offensive game the other day vs gtech but I just don't expect them to repeat that effort as that was way out of norm for them. I like Alston and quinton rose to be the difference here in a game I think the dog can win outright
Ull/Clemson under 147..toughest thing about this one is there really no favorable comps as ull hasn't played much of a schedule and the few decent teams they have faced are nowhere near tigers caliber and even worse not close stylistically so having to make few assumptions here but think they the correct ones.
1st and foremost pace, ull 77th in adjusted tempo however that is more due to teams they face shooting early in the clock. As I mention often I tend to lean to the deliberate team imposing their style and think that absolutely will be the case here, just don't see them speeding the tigers up. Secondly cajuns 109.7 adj efficiency comes from offensive rebounding where they rank 13th in the country and FTs where they get 21% of their points. That is all well and good but those numbers were piled up facing the 305 schedule in the country! They now facing a tigers team that is 21st in the country in defensive rebounding and 12th when it comes to points allowed at the charity stripe as teams only get 13.7% of their points at the line.
Points are not gonna be easy to come by for the cajuns, you can throw out that 85.2 points a game the Cajuns score cause this a huge step up in class from not just the norm but anyone they have faced. I think if they get the 63 tigers allow on average they will have done well. For arguments sake let's give them 65 which quite honestly I think 5 higher than they will actually get. That leaves Clemson needing 83 to beat us, is that possible? Yes. Likely? No. Tigers average 77 but that down to 72 their last 3. They have only hit or exceeded this number 4x on the season and 3 of those 4 came against atrocious teams ranked outside the top 200 while the other was a 83 point effort vs a pretty bad unc ashville team they held to 53. In fact of those 4x tigers hit 83 or more 2 of them still stayed under this number, one barely went over totalling 150, and just one flew past this number. As I said I would be surprised if la la hit the 65 I'm giving them for arguments sake. Tigers take away the 2 main things cajuns do to achieve their high season average, I see this as being played right around 140 giving us those 7 points of perceived value I crave
Southeast Missouri st +7... really don't think there a whole lot separating these teams, they both beat siu by almost identical score only difference being semo did it on the road while slu was at home (a game siu gifted them by the way!). Obviously I don't like my hometown squad as seems I fade them quite often, I can't help it I watch them a lot and I'm not impressed. I feel like they get benefit of a lot of calls for some reason. Travis fords team likes to put their heads down and initiate contact which has lead to the 4th best FT rate in the nation but imo it pure garbage! Red hawks have some capable shooters and slu pretty poor defending the 3, I think between that and the motivation for these kids from little school in cape to compete with the city boys be enough to have this game competitive till the end
Bama-2.5.. hope I'm not making a mistake here, as I mentioned loved bama at pk but that number long gone. I considered waiting and seeing if comes back down but just don't want to lose anymore and have it end up being -3 or -4 later on. I'm comfortable here still being just one possession but don't want to lay more. As I mentioned above horns have really struggled offensive since their leading scorer got hurt, 2 of the 3 games since they have managed 52 and 47! Bama plays strong defense so life not gonna get any easier here, while horns defense is absolutely legit and one of best in the country they gonna have their hands full containing sexton outside and hall down low. Guards rule the world and bama has one of the best ones in the country.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Reply With Quote
