Marquette already won by 30, couldn't post in time.

Article by Alan Boston posted by Chad Millman:
College basketball season starts in November, but does anyone really pay attention until January? Didn't think so. You could argue that the same goes for the players -- because while games obviously count between Thanksgiving and Christmas, no one gets to the NCAA tournament by winning games in mid-December.


Teams make the NCAA tournament, ultimately, by passing muster in their conference. In the eyes of the selection committee, those wins are worth twice as much as any pre-January victory. Players play harder, coaches focus more, practices have the intensity of made-for-the-paparazzi love affairs cooked up by two publicists desperate to keep their clients relevant.


Wiseguys know this. In fact, they count on it to make their living.


"Pre-conference there is travel, local rivals, tournaments, teams who have never seen each other before. It's a different mindset," says college hoops betting guru Alan Boston. (Read a previous blog entry I've done with him by going here.) "When it comes to conference time it is just teams that are familiar with each other who will play all-out, because conference means everything."


In years past, Boston used to be able to tell when a team was going to give its best nonconference effort and when it was going to mail in a game. Old-school smarts call these "flat spots." But in the past several years, with the advent of more and more early-season tournaments and the dominance of AAU summer programs, finding dead spots is hard and no longer a winning thought.


"In today's modern basketball -- with big money in the fray -- these kids have become more like robots in their approach," Boston says. "They work a lot more and practice a lot more on their own; they have less balance in their lives. It's not a bad thing but more of a reflection of the need to make the NCAA tourney and for schools to make all that money. Where normally some teams would be flat for games, they are driven all the time to play at the highest level. Flat spots are few and far between.


"But the AAU training has changed how you look at in-conference games, too. These kids are used to playing three games in a day for seven straight days. They don't get as tired and they don't get as rattled. Look at the Tennessee Volunteers. They threw four players off a team that likes to use depth to press full-court and they blow out Charlotte and then beat the No. 1 team in America, the Kansas Jayhawks. And then, against the Auburn Tigers, they are in a perfect spot to level off and they end up blowing them out. They were flat at the start and it did not matter. In the old days that wouldn't have happened. When they pour their heart and soul into three straight games and you think a team isn't going to show up, they show up anyway.


"Nowadays, one of the biggest keys for betting in conference games isn't finding a team that won't show up. Blowouts don't happen that often. You need to find a team that will have its home run game.



"As an example, last year Wichita State was struggling; they had a brilliant new coach in Gregg Marshall who has a very intricate system and they got into conference play and started slow. Then they were at home, playing a team at the top of the heap in the conference. I think it was Creighton. They had yet to win, so you know at home against a league power they will give absolute max effort. They had a few days to get ready and even though they had been losing, they looked like they were getting comfortable with the system. In an atmosphere that would be wild I thought they would have unrelenting focus. Sure enough, they won easily."


All this said, let's take a look at Boston's breakdown of some Sunday games:


Providence Friars at Marquette Golden Eagles
"Marquette -- not a very deep team -- has played a series of close games in the Big East against top competition. They beat Georgetown, had two wars with Villanova and lost to West Virginia by one. They are 1-3 in the conference. Four in-conference games and four wars. Now they have had a few days to get ready for Providence, a team that fell behind to a terrible DePaul team. I expect them to have a lot of energy against Providence. They will come out with the same effort DePaul did, and I can see this game getting out of hand. I can see them saying, 'Enough is enough; let's just blow this team out.' That is what they have done against teams they have been athletically superior to this year. And they are going against a sloppy Providence team that doesn't play very smart all the time. I would expect that if DePaul can get Providence nine down during the game, then Marquette can kill Providence. They are thinking, 'We are bubblish for the NCAA tourney and need this game.' Marquette easy."


Illinois State Redbirds at Drake Bulldogs


"Drake has struggled in their pre-conference games, losing to SIU-Edwardsville at home and only beating Binghamton by one. But in their last three Missouri Valley games, they have lost close to Creighton and beaten both Southern Illinois and Missouri State. Drake is a perfect example of the possible pre-conference conference disparity. Their nonconference results would not get them a win in the Missouri Valley. They were apparently ironing things out or fine-tuning their set plays, or are just young. It would appear Illinois State is now a winnable game. But I think Drake perhaps overachieved a bit the last few and will level off, even if they have improved a lot. Betting focused road favorites is a good thing. I'd take Illinois State by 10."