1. 02-24-13 08:44 PM #1
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    Iowa State +1 vs. Kansas on Big Monday

    Cyclones have won like 23 straight at home, and were an absolute choke job away from being KU in Lawrence earlier this season. Do they exact revenge here?
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  2. 02-24-13 09:36 PM #2
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Tough call Coin but Ku did shoot 50% from the field and 42% from beyond the arc in last game. I would def not count on them putting up shooting #'s that good again on the road. Gonna be another down to the wire tight "coin flip" type game but I would lean Cyclones at home if I bet this. GL

    Also noticed KU made 38 trips to the foul line compared to only 20 for Iowa st. Not sure if there was some home reffin going on or Ku was just being more aggressive and attacking the rim more that game. Both teams solid ft teams as well tho in around 72%. Gonna be a nail-biter I'm sure!
    Last edited by R.P. McMurphy; 02-24-13 at 09:51 PM.
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  3. 02-24-13 09:41 PM #3
    curtrambus
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    I'm passing and betting Cuse instead Marquette ain't no Georgetown.
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  4. 02-24-13 10:02 PM #4
    HOT WINGS
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    I will be on Cyclones for sure. Just waiting to get best ML possible
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  5. 02-24-13 11:05 PM #5
    BlitzTheBooks
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    Easy money: Kansas State 1H. Done and done. Those other 3 are basically a coin flip. Lines are razor sharp.
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  6. 02-24-13 11:08 PM #6
    ChiHawk86
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    The game in Lawrence, guard play for KU was terrible. 6-21 shooting from Johnson and Tharpe, and that was sorta the beginning for Johnson's slump. He has been making much better decisions past few games and his knees are feeling a lot closer to %100.

    I'm not saying KU wins because KU historically does not do well in Ames, but I wouldn't be so sure of an Iowa State victory here.
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  7. 02-24-13 11:26 PM #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Tough call Coin but Ku did shoot 50% from the field and 42% from beyond the arc in last game. I would def not count on them putting up shooting #'s that good again on the road. Gonna be another down to the wire tight "coin flip" type game but I would lean Cyclones at home if I bet this. GL

    Also noticed KU made 38 trips to the foul line compared to only 20 for Iowa st. Not sure if there was some home reffin going on or Ku was just being more aggressive and attacking the rim more that game. Both teams solid ft teams as well tho in around 72%. Gonna be a nail-biter I'm sure!
    ISU doesn't play much D, and they're not exactly a "structured" offense. A lot of individual talent. I've never been a Korie Lucious fan at the point.
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  8. 02-25-13 07:14 AM #8
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlitzTheBooks View Post
    Easy money: Kansas State 1H. Done and done. Those other 3 are basically a coin flip. Lines are razor sharp.
    I wouldn't be so sure on that bet. ISU is a high tempo, 1H team.
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  9. 02-25-13 07:18 AM #9
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Think he's referring to the K-st Wildcats Nino vs Texas Tech.
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  10. 02-25-13 07:20 AM #10
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Think he's referring to the K-st Wildcats Nino vs Texas Tech.
    Ah, didn't see the State part. Thought he was referring to Kansas 1H.
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  11. 02-25-13 07:44 AM #11
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Cyclones have won like 23 straight at home, and were an absolute choke job away from being KU in Lawrence earlier this season. Do they exact revenge here?
    Yes they do and -1 -102 is a better bet than +1 -110
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  12. 02-25-13 07:44 AM #12
    LT Profits
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    ISU is one of my favorite bets all year in this spot
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  13. 02-25-13 08:03 AM #13
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Far as "spots" go you could very well be right L.T. Aside from the obvious factors that Iowa st is a very good ball club and totally dominate at home. The Hawks come into a spot here where they got 2 wins off opponents they were hell bent on avenging earlier losses to (OSU and TCU). Mission accomplished for them now they go into an angry hornets nest themselves. Long as Cyclones can dictate pace here and hitting there shots I have to lean homers here. GL everyone
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  14. 02-25-13 08:07 AM #14
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Either way strap on your seat belt and get ready for a bumpy ride cause this will be one of those last min or even o.t. thrillers that will be decided by a bucket or 2 most likely.
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  15. 02-25-13 08:08 AM #15
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Far as "spots" go you could very well be right L.T. Aside from the obvious factors that Iowa st is a very good ball club and totally dominate at home. The Hawks come into a spot here where they got 2 wins off opponents they were hell bent on avenging earlier losses to (OSU and TCU). Mission accomplished for them now they go into an angry hornets nest themselves. Long as Cyclones can dictate pace here and hitting there shots I have to lean homers here. GL everyone
    It sounds like you read my thread. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...day-night.html
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  16. 02-25-13 08:28 AM #16
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Damn I just did lol. Great minds think alike I guess haha. Seriously tho I'm from the midwest less than an hour away from Lawrence actually and know the B12 very well. KU fans b.t.w. are some of the most obnoxious jokers on the planet. Total front-runners who don't know shit about hoops or anything not regarding KU. Funny too how they all disappear when football comes around! Fukk KU

    Think ur selling it to hard b.t.w. with "possible the best bet of the year" It's a good spot but still gonna be wire to wire as I mentioned and all about who executes best in the final moments. Kind of a coin flip but I LEAN Cyclones here and most likely put something down on them. Good winnin!
    Last edited by R.P. McMurphy; 02-25-13 at 08:58 AM.
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  17. 02-25-13 08:57 AM #17
    HOT WINGS
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    ISU is one of my favorite bets all year in this spot
    Mine as well.... GL LT
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  18. 02-25-13 09:06 AM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Think ur selling it to hard b.t.w. with "possible the best bet of the year"
    Not really, I objectively made this line ISU -2.5 before it came out. I am rarely off by THIS much, but I think the difference is due 100% to Kansas being such a public team as opposed to any "game" concerns (i.e., injuries)
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  19. 02-25-13 09:10 AM #19
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    I am clashing with Pomeroy here, he has KU -2 (which probably explains KU opening as favorite).
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  20. 02-25-13 09:28 AM #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I am clashing with Pomeroy here, he has KU -2 (which probably explains KU opening as favorite).
    Iowa State worries me because of the "freestyle" way that they play. I've seen quite a few of their games, and while they have a ton of talent, they're one of those teams who will get up by 8 but still chuck a three-point attempt with 30 on the shot clock. Again, a lot of that is due to the fact that they have a score-first PG in Lucious.

    They need to get off to a good start. If not, they might be playing catch-up all night long. This is basically ISU's chance at making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team -- do they get their signature win or cave under the pressure? It's not exactly like they can take a "nothing to lose" approach to this game.
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  21. 02-25-13 09:48 AM #21
    dabeags
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Iowa State worries me because of the "freestyle" way that they play. I've seen quite a few of their games, and while they have a ton of talent, they're one of those teams who will get up by 8 but still chuck a three-point attempt with 30 on the shot clock. Again, a lot of that is due to the fact that they have a score-first PG in Lucious.
    I don't like to bet on Iowa State for that reason. They rely so heavily on the jump shot that when they are off they are almost a sure loss, they also don't defend all that well as they are undersized inside.

    With that said, they are a pretty good match up against KU. KU lives on the defensive end of the ball, and their plan in large part is to funnel everything in towards Withey who is possibly the best defender of the rim in CBB. The problem is, that Iowa State has 5 players on the floor who can shoot it out to the three point line. This draws Withey away from the paint allowing for a guy like Lucius to get into the paint and either get to the rim or kick it out to a open guy for three. You also have the chance for second chance points from a guy like Ejim who is a great rebounder as an undersized 4.

    On the flip side, Iowa State normally doesn't defend all that well but certainly has length and athleticism to do so on the perimeter. I fully expect KU to pound it into the paint on offense like they did against OSU. If they are getting fouls and put backs then it could be a long night for ISU.

    With all that said, I am hoping the line moves a bit more in KUs favor and I can get an ISU +1 or 1.5 later on.
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  22. 02-25-13 09:51 AM #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    This is basically ISU's chance at making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team
    I disagree with this, I think they are in unless they totally flame the rest of the way.
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  23. 02-25-13 09:55 AM #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by dabeags View Post
    I don't like to bet on Iowa State for that reason. They rely so heavily on the jump shot that when they are off they are almost a sure loss, they also don't defend all that well as they are undersized inside.

    With that said, they are a pretty good match up against KU. KU lives on the defensive end of the ball, and their plan in large part is to funnel everything in towards Withey who is possibly the best defender of the rim in CBB. The problem is, that Iowa State has 5 players on the floor who can shoot it out to the three point line. This draws Withey away from the paint allowing for a guy like Lucius to get into the paint and either get to the rim or kick it out to a open guy for three. You also have the chance for second chance points from a guy like Ejim who is a great rebounder as an undersized 4.

    On the flip side, Iowa State normally doesn't defend all that well but certainly has length and athleticism to do so on the perimeter. I fully expect KU to pound it into the paint on offense like they did against OSU. If they are getting fouls and put backs then it could be a long night for ISU.

    With all that said, I am hoping the line moves a bit more in KUs favor and I can get an ISU +1 or 1.5 later on.
    Outstanding post.

    I really like the Niang kid as well -- he's one of the better freshman posts I've seen this year.
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  24. 02-25-13 09:56 AM #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I disagree with this, I think they are in unless they totally flame the rest of the way.
    Maybe, but only because the Big 12 is so weak. Kansas is good but not great, and I think K-State is a product of a sub-par league more than a Top-15 team. Because of that, ISU doesn't really have any signature wins. Where are they at RPI wise?
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  25. 02-25-13 10:00 AM #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Maybe, but only because the Big 12 is so weak. Kansas is good but not great, and I think K-State is a product of a sub-par league more than a Top-15 team. Because of that, ISU doesn't really have any signature wins. Where are they at RPI wise?
    I pay no attention to RPI because it's pretty meaningless IMO. but ISU is 50th according to teamrankings
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  26. 02-25-13 10:04 AM #26
    dabeags
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Maybe, but only because the Big 12 is so weak. Kansas is good but not great, and I think K-State is a product of a sub-par league more than a Top-15 team. Because of that, ISU doesn't really have any signature wins. Where are they at RPI wise?
    Their RPI is weak because of their road losses. Teams that don't play solid D and rely on the jump shot will always struggle on the road.
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  27. 02-25-13 10:04 AM #27
    ChiHawk86
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    I am a big KU homer, lived in Kansas and graduated from KU. I am telling you most of the fans i've talked to are most worried about this game. Majority already have it circled as a loss. This game is going to be too close to play, I will be watching as a fan this game.
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  28. 02-25-13 10:05 AM #28
    dabeags
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Outstanding post.

    I really like the Niang kid as well -- he's one of the better freshman posts I've seen this year.
    First post!

    I have been lurking for some time, but I have quite a bit of knowledge about KU and Iowa State as I am a die hard K-State fan, grew up in KC so half my friends are big time KU fans, and now live in Iowa where I see all of Iowa States games.
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  29. 02-25-13 10:13 AM #29
    ChiHawk86
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    OH yea wouldn't it be nice for Bill Self to get win #600 in Ames where they are undefeated?
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  30. 02-25-13 10:14 AM #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiHawk86 View Post
    OH yea wouldn't it be nice for Bill Self to get win #600 in Ames where they are undefeated?
    Isn't it win #500?
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  31. 02-25-13 10:15 AM #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by dabeags View Post
    Isn't it win #500?
    Yes you are correct, my mistake. Win #500!!!
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  32. 02-25-13 10:46 AM #32
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Some good stuff in this thread! Were gonna see a great game either way I think. Faded both on Sat Iowa st -19.5 I figured look ahead to the bigger fish on Monday. And faded Ku -25 local inflated the line knowing homers would pound Ku and I took them both knowing how shitty KU is a.t.s. laying dd's. Anyway both small action bets but called my guy right after Hawks game and we got a small laugh when I said sukks for us! Lost both bets by 1.5 pts combined ouch haha!

    Anyway gonna have another "action" bet tonight an follow my Clones lean. Also to fade ku, the public, ad back the home team who wil hopefully perform better down the stretch and get a little home cooking from the zebras. Bol betting this game guys!
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  33. 02-25-13 10:56 AM #33
    ChiHawk86
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Some good stuff in this thread! Were gonna see a great game either way I think. Faded both on Sat Iowa st -19.5 I figured look ahead to the bigger fish on Monday. And faded Ku -25 local inflated the line knowing homers would pound Ku and I took them both knowing how shitty KU is a.t.s. laying dd's. Anyway both small action bets but called my guy right after Hawks game and we got a small laugh when I said sukks for us! Lost both bets by 1.5 pts combined ouch haha!

    Anyway gonna have another "action" bet tonight an follow my Clones lean. Also to fade ku, the public, ad back the home team who wil hopefully perform better down the stretch and get a little home cooking from the zebras. Bol betting this game guys!
    This KU homer did the same thing! You are right tho, KU is horrible ATS laying DD, just though TCU starters would atleast score 1 point in the 1st half!
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  34. 02-25-13 11:02 AM #34
    numismatist
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    To paraphrase the movie "War Games", the best way to win this game is not to play. This one stinks, there is no angle here that give me a good advantage on either side. I would be happy to pull the trigger on Kansas at anything +3 or higher but thats just a fantasy, if anything I see this going down to a PK by gametime when the public starts hammering Kansas.
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  35. 02-25-13 11:03 AM #35
    ChiHawk86
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    Quote Originally Posted by numismatist View Post
    To paraphrase the movie "War Games", the best way to win this game is not to play. This one stinks, there is no angle here that give me a good advantage on either side. I would be happy to pull the trigger on Kansas at anything +3 or higher but thats just a fantasy, if anything I see this going down to a PK by gametime when the public starts hammering Kansas.
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