1. 12-18-12 04:52 PM #1
    Louisvillekid1
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    Xavier +8 vs (11) Cincinnati, Wednesday Evening...

    8 is a lot of points in this rivalry, especially since this game is going to be played at a neutral location Downtown.

    I'm close to locking this in, can't imagine the line going anywhere but down, looking deeper into this match-up now.

    Thoughts on this matchup?
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  2. 12-18-12 05:14 PM #2
    CollegeOverUnder
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    I hope Xavier beats the shit out if cincy
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  3. 12-18-12 06:19 PM #3
    Louisvillekid1
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    already went to 7.5
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  4. 12-18-12 06:26 PM #4
    southpaw74
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    Xavier isn't very good. Line is probably close.
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  5. 12-18-12 06:49 PM #5
    hkarmy_kenny
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    Hey LKid,

    For what it's worth, here's data from my model on this game :

    PREV GAME SCORING MARGIN COMPARISON: -10 Cincinnati

    RAW STAT EFFICIENCY MARGIN: -6 Cincinatti

    SOS ADJUSTED MARGIN: -7.5 Cincinatti

    TEMPO ADJUSTED ON NEUTRAL COURT: -5.5 Cincinatti

    PREDICTED PACE MARGIN: -17 Cincinatti

    Predicted pace margin based off of Cincinnati having 72 possessions vs. Xavier's 64 possessions. Also, this number gets bloated higher than the other predictions due to Cincinnati's strong defensive abilities.

    Essentially based on stats & possession predictions, Cincinnati wins this game. Xavier will cover only if they can dictate the pace and slow down Cincinnati.

    Cincinnati Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.154 (#54)
    Xavier Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.212 (#35)

    Cincinatti Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.559 (#8)
    Xavier Opp Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.0 (#228)

    ----

    My own opinion:

    Xavier can't keep it close due to Bearcats defense. Cincinnati dictates pace and wins by 12...on paper
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  6. 12-18-12 06:55 PM #6
    hkarmy_kenny
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    I hope I don't skew your own capping with this info though, as I feel you are a way more experienced capper than I.

    But my questions for you are :

    1) Due to the rivalry, will Xavier statistically perform greater than their previous games?

    2) Do you feel Xavier will match shots against Bearcat's defense?

    3) Do you feel Xavier can limit Cincinnati possessions for the majority of this game?

    If so, then they may cover +8
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  7. 12-18-12 07:16 PM #7
    CollegeOverUnder
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    Quote Originally Posted by southpaw74 View Post
    Xavier isn't very good. Line is probably close.

    Xavier is better then they actually are. People dont give them enough credit there actually a well rounded team IMO
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  8. 12-18-12 07:20 PM #8
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by hkarmy_kenny View Post
    Hey LKid,

    For what it's worth, here's data from my model on this game :

    PREV GAME SCORING MARGIN COMPARISON: -10 Cincinnati

    RAW STAT EFFICIENCY MARGIN: -6 Cincinatti

    SOS ADJUSTED MARGIN: -7.5 Cincinatti

    TEMPO ADJUSTED ON NEUTRAL COURT: -5.5 Cincinatti

    PREDICTED PACE MARGIN: -17 Cincinatti

    Predicted pace margin based off of Cincinnati having 72 possessions vs. Xavier's 64 possessions. Also, this number gets bloated higher than the other predictions due to Cincinnati's strong defensive abilities.

    Essentially based on stats & possession predictions, Cincinnati wins this game. Xavier will cover only if they can dictate the pace and slow down Cincinnati.

    Cincinnati Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.154 (#54)
    Xavier Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.212 (#35)

    Cincinatti Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.559 (#8)
    Xavier Opp Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.0 (#228)

    ----

    My own opinion:

    Xavier can't keep it close due to Bearcats defense. Cincinnati dictates pace and wins by 12...on paper
    That's great work man,
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  9. 12-18-12 07:25 PM #9
    hkarmy_kenny
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    Quote Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder View Post
    Xavier is better then they actually are. People dont give them enough credit there actually a well rounded team IMO
    Agreed. They are well rounded and have the definitely ability to cover this spread.

    Quote Originally Posted by southpaw74 View Post
    Xavier isn't very good. Line is probably close.
    Also agree - I think the line is on point.
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  10. 12-18-12 07:29 PM #10
    CollegeOverUnder
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    all i no is im gonna be really biased and alreayd like XAVIER in this spot with out even capping the game but ill be back tonight to cap it actually
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  11. 12-18-12 08:12 PM #11
    HoulihansTX
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    Saw Cincy play twice in a tourny in Vegas. They are for real. Senior leadership, and athletic ability that compares with anyone in the country.
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  12. 12-18-12 08:45 PM #12
    TheBetBuysDanK
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    Some brilliant capping going down in this thread. Wish I could contribute something of actual value.

    I hope cincy works them over though, after the way the Xavier players talked so much shit after the cross city shootout last years. "We got a bunch of thugs in our lockeroom. Not gangsters, but tough guys. We ZIPPED 'em up!" All that was totally uncalled for.
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  13. 12-19-12 11:50 AM #13
    MasterP10
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    Cincinnati -7.5 in absolute blowout
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  14. 12-19-12 12:04 PM #14
    TheSituation87
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    Cincinnati is going to have more FGA, better FGP, and the key to there DD win is the Rebounding. The rebounding difference will give Cincinnati the more FGA.

    Cincinnati-76
    Xavier-65
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  15. 12-19-12 12:24 PM #15
    PaperTrail07
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    Im all over the Natti....Lv....I live in 614....i know these teams....Xav wont be able to hang....their good purdue win was lucky...
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  16. 12-19-12 12:26 PM #16
    PaperTrail07
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    Xav is just not that good
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  17. 12-19-12 12:27 PM #17
    PaperTrail07
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    purdue almost beat them and it was the 1st game in they didnt hit ONE THREE....and trust me ...they shot a few
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  18. 12-19-12 12:48 PM #18
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder View Post
    Xavier is better then they actually are. People dont give them enough credit there actually a well rounded team IMO
    I think X covers here personally as well, but what makes you say this and then rip Cincy? I don't understand how you can talk Xavier up and then say the Bearcats are a fraud.
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  19. 12-19-12 12:50 PM #19
    hkarmy_kenny
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    -9 already :P
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  20. 12-19-12 01:07 PM #20
    GiveMeaBJ
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    This line is high. Everyone is finally starting to notice a solid cincy team and the line is reflecting that. Both teams can play defense. The only real scrubs xavier played is fdu. They have a lot of solid wins and a good one over butler. Cincy has played no one really other than bama and oregon.

    A lot of bad blood an both teams come to play but i think cincy has guys like wright and kilpatrick who take a lot of bad shots. If those dont fall dont be surprised to see xavier outright.
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  21. 12-19-12 01:08 PM #21
    RetardStrength
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    My play here...

    I take it back... I am folding on picking a side...

    Gonna run with the OVER 136.5 only. I see a fast paced, high scoring game...
    Last edited by RetardStrength; 12-19-12 at 01:13 PM.
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  22. 12-19-12 01:08 PM #22
    Louisvillekid1
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    Im sticking w/ Xavier, throw the #'s out when capping this game...
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  23. 12-19-12 01:12 PM #23
    sitzlejd
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    Im in cincy and go to lots of uc games and will be there tonight. Going with Xavier +9.
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  24. 12-19-12 01:43 PM #24
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by RetardStrength View Post
    My play here...

    I take it back... I am folding on picking a side...

    Gonna run with the OVER 136.5 only. I see a fast paced, high scoring game...
    damn i played opposite, ,i see a tough physical gm,,lol...i think if anything you will have free throws on your side as id imagine refs wont be shy to blow the whistle, of coarse i have the fact cincy cant make free throws on my side,,then again maybe it is loose and up and down as both scared to start another fight? i dunno, i thought number was little high as i think it in xaviers best interest to slow it down, and that cincy d is tough, i have xavier right at 60 so guess just need cincy to stay at 76 or less which think should happen.. at least one of us win...lol
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  25. 12-19-12 01:53 PM #25
    RG3ING
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    Quote Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder View Post
    Xavier is better then they actually are. People dont give them enough credit there actually a well rounded team IMO
    Really "Xavier is better then they actually are" one of the dumbest An ignorant thing I have read on Sbr
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  26. 12-19-12 01:53 PM #26
    PorkChop
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    Thinking CINCI TT OVER 72.5
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  27. 12-19-12 02:18 PM #27
    CollegeOverUnder
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    Quote Originally Posted by RG3ING View Post
    Really "Xavier is better then they actually are" one of the dumbest An ignorant thing I have read on Sbr
    thanks fuk bag I appreciate it dont really care about anything a guy like you says because If I could go to college for a Major in College Basketball analysis I would already have a Master Degree
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  28. 12-19-12 02:32 PM #28
    PaperTrail07
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    I like that Porkkkkk
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  29. 12-19-12 02:38 PM #29
    JJJ
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    is xaviers 2nd leading scorer gonna play i know last game he was out with a concussion
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  30. 12-19-12 02:59 PM #30
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder View Post
    thanks fuk bag I appreciate it dont really care about anything a guy like you says because If I could go to college for a Major in College Basketball analysis I would already have a Master Degree
    If X is "better than they actually are" (whatever that means) and you obviously think Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the country, why is Xavier +9 not a play of the year type situation for you?
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  31. 12-19-12 03:14 PM #31
    TheeArchBishop
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    Remember Lyons was one of Xavier's best players last year and we all now he moved onto Arizona.
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  32. 12-19-12 03:26 PM #32
    CashDummy
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    +9 at 5Dimes right now. 9 is looking pretty good. Good luck!
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  33. 12-19-12 05:19 PM #33
    DennisT
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    Xavier +7 Feel good about the number. Cincy could lose their heads if the game is close and blow it.
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  34. 12-19-12 05:47 PM #34
    MrBig33
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheeArchBishop View Post
    Remember Lyons was one of Xavier's best players last year and we all now he moved onto Arizona.

    So that was expected he was a senior.
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  35. 12-19-12 05:54 PM #35
    DennisT
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    Other players have moved on also.
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