Originally Posted by
Machine Choice
REWIND: XAVIER @ DAYTON (Feb 11)
(I chose Xavier to cover -3, they lost by 13)
1. Pulled down the lines from Greek, Bookmaker and Bodog (my three books) and compared it to what the Sagarin Predictor model showed for the game. Predictor showed Xavier winning by four, even with Dayton having home-court advantage. Edge: Xavier
2. Analayzed the schedules of each team and asked four questions: 1. How many times had Xavier beaten a team of Dayton's caliber by four points 2. How many times did a team of Dayton's caliber finish a game within four points of Xavier 3. How many times had Dayton NOT lost by more than four points (either at home or on the road) to a team of Xavier's caliber and 4. How many times did Dayton play a very tight game against a team much worse than Xavier? To answer these questions, I used the Sagarin ratings of every team that Xavier and Dayton had faced. Dayton was ranked 60 in Sagarin. Xavier was ranked 13. The results: Xavier = 3, Dayton = 4. Edge: Dayton
3. Then I flipped over to Statfox and analyzed ATS trends in these categories: home/away (as applicable to this game), Tuesday nights, versus conference opponents, versus teams with a winning record, versus good defensive teams giving up < 64 ppg, February games, and last five games. The results yielded these ATS win percentages for each team in the above categories: Xavier 35-17 (67%), Dayton 21-33 (38%). Edge: Xavier
4. Then I looked at strength of schedule. Dayton's strength of schedule was around 260, Xavier's was around 48. Against teams ranked in the Sagarin top 50, Dayton was 1-0 and Xavier was 4-2. Dayton had only faced one team in the Sagarin top 50, so they were actually an unproven team. Clearly Xavier had much more experience facing solid teams in a nationally televised primetime game (remember the LSU game in Baton Rouge?). Edge: Xavier
5. Then I looked at how both teams performed in their most recent game. Xavier had lost on the road to Duquesne by four points, which was actually due to Duquesne shooting a FREAKISH 81% in the first half. Meanwhile, Dayton got blown out by a much poorer Charlotte team. Edge: Xavier
6. Then I averaged the PF/PA for both teams in their last five games only. I compared these results with the strength of schedule of those five teams (using Sagarin). The PF/PA breakdown showed the teams at dead even, HOWEVER, the SOS of Dayton's previous five opponents was only 135 whereas for Xavier it was 101. Edge: Xavier
7. Then I read the Yahoo Team Reports for both teams in order to pick up on rumors, illness, grade issues, etc...I learned that Xavier's freshmen point guard could have problems against Dayton's full-court press. I leaned that Xavier's 7" tall Freeze was having ankle issues. I also learned that Dayton was concerned about not being able to get inside the paint against Xavier's superior size, especially since Dayton's FG% had been poor in their recent games. I learned that Dayton was 0-6 vs Xavier in their previous 6 matchups and that Xavier's average MOV in those games was more than 14 points. Edge: even, leaning Xavier
I read all of these things and figured: which of these teams has the edge, which is more "proven"?
Xavier -3
Then I cracked a couple of beers, got comfortable, and watched Dayton destroy my play and research. That's gambling! You use as much research as you can, place the best bet you can, and then hope to win 60% of the time. When you lose, at least you can look at yourself in the mirror and know that you did your homework and didn't fall for a sucker play. The key is money management. Money Management means you will always come out on top in the long run!