[Inkwell77]

So team A beats team B at home in the first game of the season by 27 points (the line for this game was Team A -6.5pts).
Then 1 month later team A is playing team B again at team B's home court.

Team A had 20 offensive rebounds while team B had 5 offensive rebounds. Team A missed 36 shots (43%) and Team B missed 38 shots (28%). Team A made 5 3-pointers (26%) and Team B made 3 3-pointers (21%). Team A had 12 turnovers and Team B had 17 turnovers.

As the season has progressed Team A has shot 42% from the field and opponents have shot 42%. Team A has 99 offensive rebounds while their opponents have grabbed 57 offensive rebounds. There are more stats that I could go into, but this line just seems wrong. I just don't get it. Is homecourt that important? I feel like a kid on christmas or some shit, this should not be happening. Is this the ultimate trap? I don't get it. I feel this is one of these games where by gametime the line moves 6 points from the original number.

I don't see any way this line can be any less than the original line of Team A -6.5pts. So the line comes out and the line is Team A -4.5pts.

Everything I see online says the exact same players will be playing in this game as the original game. Team B has not improved significantly, they are 3-6 overall and 2-5 ats. just lost by a ton in their last game and had no shot from the opening tip.


I think I may be losing a lot of money tomorrow, fellas. ****
I'm relatively new, been betting for a year, but I just don't see how I lay off this. Money management seems difficult in this type of situation.

[CollegeOverUnder]

I like that you didn't include the team names in this that would ruin your hole question

[lite1up]

I know what game he's referring to, and yes, it sticks out like a sore thumb. Can't find any way to justify laying off of this one, other than the "too obvious" angle.

[grizzlies1]

???

[snoopaloop31]

Maybe you should hold your bet till just before tip-off. Line movement might give you more info.

[lite1up]

I don't know, I can't even see line movement talking me out of this one. Honestly feels like Xavier at Butler to me, the clearly better team here should win by at least 7, with the potential for a blowout.

[grizzlies1]

Which game??

[lite1up]

Locked and loaded on this one, top play of the day after researching this play. Also like Penn State +8 at Duquesne. GL

[BernardMadoff]

blah blah blah

[EPote14]

what games is this that there talking about? anyone?

[cheesehead004]

Cal Poly @ SJSU

[EPote14]

k thanks

[NardVa]

Being at home can make the difference in winning and losing. Also playing somebody for the 2nd time can be the difference in the out come of the game. One game that comes to mind is Norfolk St playing Marquette. First game Marquette at home beat Norfolk ST by 31. The 2nd game on a neutral court a few days later Marquette won by 2.

[lite1up]

Nice call, Inkwell!

Wasn't as easy I thought it would be, but there are no style points in betting.