1. 01-26-09 05:35 PM #1
    hajune
    hajune's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-07
    Posts: 219
    Betpoints: 0

    Marquette is a good play

    The reasons are many and I will give you some of them but not all of them.
    Maquette's power rating that I use and is very good should have them as a 4 point favorite.
    They are a great travel team and a great underdog team. They have covered over 60% in the past 12 years and nothing is there to suggest they have changed character.
    They are 4-0 when the spread is 3 or less this year. Marquette is at their best in these type games. They are not a good double digit favorite burt a good team to play when supposivly competitive against teams with roughly equal ability.
    They have an excellent point spread record since
    Christmas and seem to be getting stronger !!!
    On the other hand Notre Dame has only covered 2 spreads since early Dec. One was against lowly Depaul , who is one of the ten worse point spread teams in college this year! The other was Georgetown who is mired in a severe slump and N D caught part of that. ND has UNDERACHEIVED all year and is rated 5-7 points better then they are from stats I use. They have lost their last 3 games by about 9 points a game and has been giving up a lot of points doing so. In the last 3 games they have given up an average of 85 points a game . Good teams do not do that.
    Win or lose I feel good about this game . I got +120 odds at Matchbook on them. Hard to believe I got these odds but I will take them.
    Cheers if I win
    If I lose then
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-26-09 05:40 PM #2
    PittChicGambles
    PittChicGambles's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-09
    Posts: 1,125
    Betpoints: 0

    Im behind you hajune...I put some money on marquette money line and first half point spread..Lets win this!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-26-09 05:45 PM #3
    patsfan2727
    patsfan2727's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-28-07
    Posts: 579
    Betpoints: 0

    This game seems WAAAY to easy to me. Can somebody justify why Marquette is a +140 dog? because ND "doesn't lose at home" and they just lost one at home? they already lost to Ohio St. at home a month ago. I need justification here about ND....Marq+3.5 looks good but still deciding on the +140
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-26-09 05:45 PM #4
    MrMonkey
    MrMonkey's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-08
    Posts: 2,278
    Betpoints: 0

    I know your knowledge is greater then mine and numbers all point to Marq., but I think it is ND's night! Why did coach play starters for 175 minutes against Depaul???? 2 nights removed? Possibly like football coach time management brain freeze on sideline occurred? Why do you have 3-4 assistants? Could be a tight win but crowd should will them to victory? Hopefully by 4+. Good luck!

    MrMonkey
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-26-09 05:46 PM #5
    PittChicGambles
    PittChicGambles's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-09
    Posts: 1,125
    Betpoints: 0

    Pats..go with Marquette...way too good of a team to be that big of an underdog...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-26-09 05:47 PM #6
    keitht
    keitht's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-08
    Posts: 878
    Betpoints: 260

    notre dame has lost one game in three years at home,,, aaa do the math
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-26-09 05:48 PM #7
    keitht
    keitht's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-08
    Posts: 878
    Betpoints: 260

    no big men to answer luke and luke
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-26-09 05:48 PM #8
    Ralphie1412
    You Come at the King You Best Not Miss
    Ralphie1412's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 13,963
    Betpoints: 1209

    Irish are 8-0-1 ATS the game after losing 3 consecutive games in a row under coach brey.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-26-09 05:48 PM #9
    PittChicGambles
    PittChicGambles's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-09
    Posts: 1,125
    Betpoints: 0

    yea..odds are in our favor then...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-26-09 05:51 PM #10
    patsfan2727
    patsfan2727's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-28-07
    Posts: 579
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by keitht View Post
    notre dame has lost one game in three years at home,,, aaa do the math
    yo, didn't they lose at home Vs. ohio state this year?
    Plus Uconn, that is 2 THIS YEAR
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 01-26-09 05:52 PM #11
    PittChicGambles
    PittChicGambles's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-09
    Posts: 1,125
    Betpoints: 0

    you tell him babe
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 01-26-09 05:53 PM #12
    kroyrunner89
    kroyrunner89's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-08
    Posts: 1,191
    Betpoints: 2663

    how well marquette has covered spreads over the last 12 years has absolutely no bearing on this game. different game, different team, different spread
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 01-26-09 05:54 PM #13
    Ralphie1412
    You Come at the King You Best Not Miss
    Ralphie1412's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 13,963
    Betpoints: 1209

    i have never felt better about my irish bet then i do right now, nothing like fading the SBR squares.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 01-26-09 05:54 PM #14
    kroyrunner89
    kroyrunner89's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-08
    Posts: 1,191
    Betpoints: 2663

    and losing on the road to a very subpar tennessee team doesn't exactly mean they're a great travel team
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 01-26-09 05:55 PM #15
    PittChicGambles
    PittChicGambles's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-09
    Posts: 1,125
    Betpoints: 0

    Go marquette!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 01-26-09 07:57 PM #16
    pimike
    SPORTS IS MONEY
    pimike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-23-08
    Posts: 37,102
    Betpoints: 90410

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 01-26-09 08:16 PM #17
    hajune
    hajune's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-07
    Posts: 219
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by PittChicGambles View Post
    Im behind you hajune...I put some money on marquette money line and first half point spread..Lets win this!
    I am glad you went with them. I give out games to a service I work with and he is letting me post plays this year that I give him. I work hard at handicapping and felt strongly about this play. This was my only play today.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 01-26-09 08:18 PM #18
    Vonnegut
    Vonnegut's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-08-09
    Posts: 1,499
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie1412 View Post
    i have never felt better about my irish bet then i do right now, nothing like fading the SBR squares.
    nice call
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 01-26-09 08:23 PM #19
    hajune
    hajune's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-07
    Posts: 219
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by patsfan2727 View Post
    This game seems WAAAY to easy to me. Can somebody justify why Marquette is a +140 dog? because ND "doesn't lose at home" and they just lost one at home? they already lost to Ohio St. at home a month ago. I need justification here about ND....Marq+3.5 looks good but still deciding on the +140
    I did not get to your reply but my method of playing games when I play the win line is to play about 20-25% of my money on it and the rest on the spread. I got Marquette at +120 and change ( +2 1/2) at Matchbook early in the morning. The line went to -3 1/2 at that point. ND does not have a good enough team this year to substain their home court edge at home . They will lose another or two before it is over.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 01-26-09 08:33 PM #20
    hajune
    hajune's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-07
    Posts: 219
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by MrMonkey View Post
    I know your knowledge is greater then mine and numbers all point to Marq., but I think it is ND's night! Why did coach play starters for 175 minutes against Depaul???? 2 nights removed? Possibly like football coach time management brain freeze on sideline occurred? Why do you have 3-4 assistants? Could be a tight win but crowd should will them to victory? Hopefully by 4+. Good luck!

    MrMonkey
    I think it is wise to pay attention to long term history from teams like Marquette. They are a cover magnet in this situation and have been for years. Some teams ae great travel teams and some are not. Marquette is a top 10 travel team over the past 20 years. Having said that what they do in the present depends on whether a team has the same demeanor as the past. They do. The counter argument to be made is N D's home prowess. Notre Dame is not the same type team that has been the major part of that big win streak. They have underacheived all year, are young and are a year away from being a major threat.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 01-26-09 08:34 PM #21
    hajune
    hajune's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-07
    Posts: 219
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by PittChicGambles View Post
    Pats..go with Marquette...way too good of a team to be that big of an underdog...
    You are right.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 01-26-09 08:46 PM #22
    hajune
    hajune's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-07
    Posts: 219
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by keitht View Post
    notre dame has lost one game in three years at home,,, aaa do the math
    I just did. You are off by 1. I have a question for you. If a person flips heads 30 times in a row what are the chances he will flip heads again. Of course it is 50-50. In that case the recent past has nothing to do with the future. Woud you play Notre Dame at home if they were playing the Lakers ? The point I am making is that this is not primary handicapping but secondary. Notre Dame is not the same as they were on the streak. It is important to putthat into your handicapping bag. You can get a lot of value when doing so. Marquette had a whooping 8 point power rating difference over ND and were a hot team playing a cold team. Those are primary factors and the important ones. Please do not take what I said in the wrong way.
    Goo luck to you
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 01-26-09 08:56 PM #23
    hajune
    hajune's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-07
    Posts: 219
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie1412 View Post
    Irish are 8-0-1 ATS the game after losing 3 consecutive games in a row under coach brey.
    That stat is almost meaningless. It falls under trend handicapping. There are many reasons why that happens and is not a primary factor. It falls under a trend and trends will get you into trouble. You must look at like situations and compare them with today's game. If a team has adifferet demeanor as ND has this year that will get in the way of good handicapping. You will get into serious handicapping trouble if you view this as a primary factor.
    Good luck to you and do not think take what said in the wrong way.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | NCAA Basketball Betting | Next Thread »