[mundane]

for reference, check this thread... http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...-nba-math.html

here's an excel worksheet i made for this so called "70% system". im calling it 'beta' right now as im sure i missed out on something. feel free to comment.

lemme know... tweak it as u please! i could have missed something. it's just a draft but i figure i'd share it now.

btw.. the only feasible play right now is PISTONS. i think the other ones dont qualify coz of injuries (houston) and back to back (magic). suns, hmm im not sure how to quantify injuries so ill leave that up to u but even if it qualifies for calculation, it's a NO PLAY anyways 4.12 only. Knicks @ Bulls, system got fubar bcoz they have an identical record! LOL!

try to plug in the numbers urself. this worksheet only needs 6 numbers from u then it will tell u if it's a play, no play or play the other team ats. u'll have to research injuries, back to back and read the notes and filters urself if the games ur looking at is qualified for this system.

best of luck fellas! let's beat the books!

disclaimer... this could be wrong as i dont really have a firm grasp of this 'system'. i just based it upon my noobie comprehension.

[Devon]

Great work, mundane!

Defintely keen to have a look at it with some numbers and see how it goes! Cheers.

[mundane]

here's a screenshot for those who are curious...

like i said, leave a comment here. ill tweak it some more if need be.

[mundane]

oh wait.. pistons is only 19 games in.. i guess it's not officially a play for this system. proceed with caution!

[Fiasco]

good stuff

[nzwarrior]

I downloaded it but it had no formula is that link the one with the actual spreadsheet that you use?

[jtnguyen79]

good stuff i'll probably try it on a night when there's less games

keep it up

[nzwarrior]

Is MIL +6.5 a play going by the system? I still dont quite understand it.. Not too sure if my maths is right on this one. The 6.5 seems to low to play with the bucks inconsistancys but i wanna try the system out?
Thanks

[Boner_18]

the link is busted... I made my own to test it out, but its not as purrrty as yours, can you repost?

[The_Kid]

Thanks for putting this information in excel, mundane. This will be interesting if you keep this thread up the rest of the NBA season.

[Devon]

Is MIL +6.5 a play going by the system? I still dont quite understand it.. Not too sure if my maths is right on this one. The 6.5 seems to low to play with the bucks inconsistancys but i wanna try the system out?
Thanks

No, it not.

Play needs to be above 10 (or equal to?) for a play to happen.

[ManBearPig]

So according to this system the only play tonight is the pistons. The one bet I wasnt about to make. Well I hope for at least tonight this system is a little inaccurate so that I can win some straight cash.

[nzwarrior]

No, it not.

Play needs to be above 10 (or equal to?) for a play to happen.

I thought if its equals -1 or less you play the fade?
I probably worked it out wrong anyway though like i said im still not sure how it works...

[mundane]

pistons is not even a play. 19 games only for them coming in on this game. SO STILL NO OFFICIAL PLAY accrdng to the 'system rules'.

[Boner_18]

Great, dloaded it! Thanks for making such a snappy version Mundane, love the "SBR" tab.

[Boner_18]

Aren't the Blazers and Bulls both plays?

[Devon]

Hmm... doesn't this line

If the number is less than or equal to -1, then you play the other team ATS.

get canceled out by this?

The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY!

Becuase no matter which team you put first and you get a "negative" number, if you switch the teams around (home first on the card and vice versa), the number is the same but a positive number and pending on the negative number it may be LESS than or MORE than 10.... which is resolute for the second quoted line.

Maybe it should read...

The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY! OR if the play is -10 or lower, then play the opposing team ATS

Thoughts people?

[mundane]

identical records for both teams - knicks and bulls.u dont have a lesser number to subtract the other ones number.

magic has a better winning % than blazers so i guess that's the selected team. BACK TO BACK for them though, so a no-play accdng to the rulez. but if u plug in the numbers, it says play the opposing team ats (play blazers). but it's not an 'offical' play.

none of the games qualify actually.

[mundane]

devon, from what i could understand from that initial post by the person who brought this up, 0-9.9 is not a play. u dont play that game. basically a pass. he mentioned this system only gets about 100 games. the filters alone takes half of the nba games out (back to back, injuries, 20 games in the season, no 3 games after all star, starters shld be at least back in a week, missing starter = all these equates to NO PLAY on a game)

and i believe u always, start with the better team, winning percentage-wise. so that way, ull get a positive number to work with.

[nzwarrior]

Im confused... so if its a negative 1 or more its a PLAY for the dog? -0.99-9.99 a NO PLAY? And 10+ a PLAY for the fav? Is that correct?

[Devon]

Im confused... so if its a negative 1 or more its a PLAY for the dog? -0.99-9.99 a NO PLAY? And 10+ a PLAY for the fav? Is that correct?

Pretty much.

10 or greater = Play "selected team"
0-9.99 = NO PLAY
-1 or less = Play other team

Selected team = the team with the higher winning percentage, you put them in the equation first, see the print screen card mundane posted earlier.

[nzwarrior]

I worked that out wrong anyway i subtracted 3 from phoenix when i was supposed to add 3... For home advantage

[Devon]

Yeah, it's a no play.

Off the system topic.. Bucks do look great there, considering how the Suns have been playing this year and Bucks have been covering machines too. They would do decent with Bogut and with Redd back, more minutes - this should be close.

[nzwarrior]

Yeah I like the Bucks here but I’d rather 8.5, ML is tempting though but I’m pretty sure the Suns will do enough to win...

[turboj]

Hey, Mundane. Do You Have A Spreadsheet On Today Game? Thanks

[strybie]

Hey, Mundane. Do You Have A Spreadsheet On Today Game? Thanks

according to me you can use the same spreadsheat in game ?

Pacers@toronto : on both teams I get NO play
NYknicks@NJnets : on both teams I get NO play
MEM@OKC : NO play
Cha@NO : NO Play (play NO when spread is -8.5 of lower)
ATL@SA : NO play
MIN@DEN : PLay Denver -12 (and still OK till spread 16)

For the other games I don't see the lines yet

From now on the system should work because most teams played 20 games.

Let's see what de record will be for this system. 70% should be great

[SexyMit]

I couldn't figure out how to use the system... I tried imputting the data in there. How does the calculations work? Never used anything like that before but if it proven to make money over the yrs would be willing to give it a try.

[strybie]

Did the calculation for

Cle @ 76ers : It says PLAY CLE-6.5

So only two which have a result above 10 are Denver and CLE

I will play them both single and double; Hope it works

CLE - 6,5
DEN - 12

Other games are all : No play on the selected team.

Good luck to all

[mundane]

i think every game is a no play! (can somebody confirm?) devon?

because of back to backs and and the spread being 10 and higher. (i juzz woke up. i could be wrong.)

[AdaBarber]

If this is the link to that yousendit, it has expired. It won't download.

[Ineed$$]

Yeah, upload again, pls!

[Devon]

15/12 -

There is definitely one play, possibly a second. The definite play is Atlanta Hawks, while the possible play is Boston - if you can get Boston at -8.5 or lower than the play works, however, the line has moved to -9.

[Devon]

Having a second look at that Atlanta is not a play.

The reason being Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters.

The Bobcats have only just recently accquired two players who will start in their team via trade, we have to lay off them for at least a week according to the above rule. I know there's no rule as such on trades and etc but Bobcats games can't be touched for at for at least a week from one of two dates:

Wed 10 December - when Bobcats did the trade with the Suns; or
Sat 13 December - when Bell & Diaw started for the first time with the Bobcats.

[nick2060]

They don't say anything about trades, so i really don't think that rule applies. Also because its not like there regaining team chemistry, the chemistry has to be built from scratch essentially. Eitherway regardless as to whether you guys decide it should be a play im bettin on it so good luck everybody

[Devon]

Yeah, fair enough Nick.

Just floating out ideas, thinking out aloud... more on the fact that they would have had to readjust team chemistry with them but since there is no rule about trades, should be a play as you mentioned.