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$600 on the Heat +2 @ SA
Risking $660 to win $600 on Miami Heat +2
Tonight Miami goes into SA to play a red hot Spurs team that will be without arguably their best player in Parker. The Heat have not had success at all playing against SA in the past but that obviously was with different teams. Miami really seems to play with more intensity on the road. Lebron and Bosh just don't play at home like they are playing in their house.
Miami's loss last night has no affect on this play. The Spurs don't have perimeter defenders on the wings to control this game. If you think about it, every elite team Miami has lost to has a good defender at the 2 and 3. Orlando with J Rich and Q rich (Van Gundy was very smart for utilizing him yesterday after leaving him on the bench for most of the season), Boston with Ray and Pierce, the Bulls with a combination of Brewer/Bogans at the 2 and Deng at the 3, all of them being very underrated defenders, and the Mavericks with Marion/Stevenson and Butler when he was there. Ginobli and Richard Jefferson are both horrible defenders and they'll both get exposed tonight off the dribble. The Spurs don't have any good 1 on 1 defenders at the g/sf spot outside of george hill, and their team defense is average at best. Some people say "Lebron and Wade need to score 65 combined to win games." You need to understand that when Lebron dishes out 10 assists thats roughly 25 or so points right there. Wade dishing out another 6 assists is another 15 points. That's 40 points just off making plays. It's not about scoring. It's about making plays.
The Spurs bench is solid at home and the majority of the reason they have been so successful. George Hill will be starting tonight and it would not surprise me if Popovich's golden boy is asked to check Wade tonight for periods of the game. Gary Neil, Bonner, Quin, and Mcy D will all get minutes tonight off the bench for the Spurs. I take a look at these guys games and I just don't see ANY explosiveness at all to be able to take advantage of the Heat's weak interior defense. Duncan looks slow and has become mainly a faciliator out of the post, and not really a real threat to score down low anymore, although he's still a great overall player. Blaire has been a beast on the glass lately but he is very undersized tonight. Aside from Gary Neil and maybe Mcdyse or a few shots from Bonner I don't see anyone on the Spurs bench being able to provide any spark in this game. The Heat's bench has been non-existent this season and this will be a game where you see some of these guys step up. I was called delusional for expecting a solid game from Miami's bench but I guess we will see who is right tonight. Mike Miller, Bibby, and whoever else the Phillipino decides to bring in (whether its james jones, joel anthony, eddie house) will all contribute tonight. Overall Miami has been not bad at limiting the 3 point shot over the past couple months aside from yesterday. It was obvious everyone was collapsing on Howard last night and the ball movement let ORL get those wide open 3's. This is a simple adjustment when watching on film and Orlando would have gotten blown out if they let Howard just play 1 on 1. Tonight they will use that strategy against Duncan and Blair and will stay home on SA's perimeter shooters.
Aside from all these points, the Spurs just don't have the speed to keep up with the Miami Heat. They are way too fast on the wings, and in transition. The guys on the Spurs bench are ridiculously slow as well- putting Lebron in for one part, then having the luxury of having Wade on the court against the Spurs BENCH is going to give this team big problems. They really have no solid 1 on 1 defenders outside of George Hill and Tim Duncan.
I have won my last 3 big nba plays, the most recent 2 being the $1000 on the Lakers and the $700 on the mavs. I don't normally lose these big plays so I would honestly be careful if you're taking the spurs tonight.
Good luck to all on their plays
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Originally Posted by Goat Milk
wow heat getting schooled.
