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  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #2556
    Originally posted by Love The Action
    NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/24/2012

    Play #1

    Grizzlies (+6) 1x (Locked)


    No time for a full writeup, but i'm jumping on the +6 at the open. If the grizz lost last night and rested their guys a bit more, this would have been a multiple unit play. The grizz are hot and actually have better overall advanced numbers on both sides of the ball. If you look at the numbers, the grizz are currently the better team quantitatively on both offense and defense. Both teams are in a fatigue spot, so that is a wash. I wish memphis lost yesterday ensuring big support for portland, but they remain the play regardless because of the value. I have this game set at +4 giving us a full 2 points of "value" on the side. Based on the foregoing, I am rolking with the Grizz for 1x. Good luck.

    Play #2

    Cavaliers/Heat over (202.5) 1x (Locked)


    I wish I would have locked this one in at the open of 201, but as I was checking the ref assignments, this one started to go up and sits at 203 as I type this on my phone. Both teams play a fast PACE ranked 3rd and 5th in the league. Offensively, the Heat are second in OEFF and 4th in FT/FGA evidencing an efficient offense with players that can get to the line. Cleveland is middle of the pack in those stats but are improving and boast acceptable EFG% and TS% numbers for this play. Regardless, this play will be won or lost on miamis advantage on offense over the cavs weak defense ranked in the bottom 6 of DEFF and OEFG%. Cleveland does have the advantage on the boards, and especially on the offensive boards with an ORB% that is 7th overall, which should provide for some second chance points. Plus, both teams will be motivated based on history and I expect a very fast pace with both teams rested. The refs are brothers, fehr and smith who all have a historical over lean. I have this game set at 206 but it is important to get at least 203 or better because that number is key in nba totals. I would not take this over 204. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

    Play #3

    Raptors (+6) 1x (Locked)


    The old Suns are in a bad fatigue and situational spot to take on a hungry Raptors squad that is hopeful to get its star back and which has comparable stats to the favorite. The Raptors are rested and will be facing the Suns who are home for the first game after a 10 day road trip and after a tough loss to Dallas which is usually a solid NBA fade spot. Add that to the fact that the Suns are on a b2b with an aging squad going against a Raptors team hungry to end their losing streak. I think the qualitative factors clearly favor the Raptors. When you look at the stats, even though the Suns offensive efficiency numbers are better than the Raptors, the majority of those numbers are skewed because Bargnani's production is missing. Even without his presence, the Raptors still have comparable ORB% and DRB% with a better OEFG% and the exact same DEFF%. The books opened this game under the key number of 7 as I don't think they expect a blow out in this game. Good luck.
    Card is final. Good luck.
    Comment
    • Dmil
      SBR High Roller
      • 01-06-12
      • 138

      #2557
      Originally posted by mikea33

      LTA, 2 things for ya here..............i didnt get the over in, but i will be taking memphis and raptors...although im not too confident, it seems whenever i let your picks by they always hit.................now my question...............

      Why don't you dip your feet in 2H plays? You seem to have a knack for reading pace and stuff like that, 2H plays have soft lines sometimes......
      Great question. I'm pretty more sure LTA could nail the majority of those soft lines.
      Comment
      • alamo
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-21-09
        • 7131

        #2558
        Suns Robin Lobez just got thrown out of the game
        Comment
        • Dave88
          SBR High Roller
          • 06-09-11
          • 130

          #2559
          my day..
          Comment
          • Trivial
            SBR MVP
            • 11-22-09
            • 1328

            #2560
            Why couldn't they score all game like the 4th quarter. Sigh.

            Comment
            • SlickRick1382
              SBR MVP
              • 10-15-11
              • 3838

              #2561
              Originally posted by alamo
              Suns Robin Lobez just got thrown out of the game
              Awesome news !!!!!

              I took Raptors +6, Raptors TT O91.5 and O189 for the game !!!!! Lets get it
              Comment
              • Donkeys2012
                SBR MVP
                • 01-11-12
                • 2771

                #2562
                Memphis looks terrible tonight. Portland has 12 turnovers and memphis is down 7. Hopefully they turn it around.
                Comment
                • Andrewsurf
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 09-23-08
                  • 219

                  #2563
                  GG Bargnani, cash it!
                  Comment
                  • Donkeys2012
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-11-12
                    • 2771

                    #2564
                    Memphis is terrible. Gonna need a 39 point 4th again to even get this close. POS team 2 points in first 8 minutes of 3rd.
                    Comment
                    • Donkeys2012
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-11-12
                      • 2771

                      #2565
                      Camby 19 rebounds. Portland 4 shots on one possesion. Ridiculos.
                      Comment
                      • alamo
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-21-09
                        • 7131

                        #2566
                        I hope Im wrong but the Grizzlies looked out on their feet. They all appear to be huffing and puffing and breathing heavy. That game last night seems to have taken a lot out of em. Lets hope they can find one last big push.
                        Comment
                        • lakerboy
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 04-02-09
                          • 94379

                          #2567
                          How are you doing this year so far LTA?
                          Comment
                          • mstrofpigs
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 11-25-11
                            • 11

                            #2568
                            absolute embarrassment
                            Comment
                            • kl06ty
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-19-11
                              • 189

                              #2569
                              jesus today has been opposite day and the 0.5 burn on everything...good cashing on the Raptors, gotta remember Channing Frye is a bum and to take Raptors 2H when he shoots like a bum
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #2570
                                NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/24/2012 Recap

                                1 - 2 = -1.2x

                                NBA 2011-2012 Season

                                46 - 39 = +5.55x

                                A win on the Raptors, but a couple tough losses. In hindsight, I probably should have layed off the Memphis play once they ended up beating GS. I made my mind up on that play a little too early. That's one I will learn from. The Heat over was a good play, just really bad result. Treading water here over the last couple weeks, but we'll heat up soon once the sample size of the stats for my model get a little more reliable.
                                Comment
                                • Love The Action
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-08-10
                                  • 10952

                                  #2571
                                  Originally posted by mstrofpigs
                                  absolute embarrassment
                                  Oh Sammy....how's the bakery?
                                  Comment
                                  • Love The Action
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-08-10
                                    • 10952

                                    #2572
                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                    How are you doing this year so far LTA?
                                    Cooled off a bit over the last 10 days, but up well over $2K on the season. And you?
                                    Comment
                                    • lakerboy
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 04-02-09
                                      • 94379

                                      #2573
                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                      Cooled off a bit over the last 10 days, but up well over $2K on the season. And you?

                                      Great stuff. Been on a good run lately after a bad run. Up a bit.
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #2574
                                        Originally posted by lakerboy
                                        Great stuff. Been on a good run lately after a bad run. Up a bit.
                                        Nice....keep that heater going. Good luck buddy
                                        Comment
                                        • TC Woods
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-17-11
                                          • 1780

                                          #2575
                                          All signs point towards Paul returning on Wednesday, but the Clips look to be taking this all the way to game-time before they make a final call. Mo Williams has been on fire (scoring 26, 25 and 26 points in his last three games) lately, so it will be interesting to see if head coach Vinny Del Negro will look to find minutes for Williams if Paul returns. Jan 24 - 4:58

                                          Source: Dan Woike on Twitter
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #2576
                                            Originally posted by TC Woods
                                            All signs point towards Paul returning on Wednesday, but the Clips look to be taking this all the way to game-time before they make a final call. Mo Williams has been on fire (scoring 26, 25 and 26 points in his last three games) lately, so it will be interesting to see if head coach Vinny Del Negro will look to find minutes for Williams if Paul returns. Jan 24 - 4:58

                                            Source: Dan Woike on Twitter
                                            Appreciate the contribution
                                            Comment
                                            • Love The Action
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-08-10
                                              • 10952

                                              #2577
                                              NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/25/2012

                                              Play #1

                                              Hawks/Spurs over (187.5) 1x (Locked)


                                              No time for writeups today. We have two efficient offenses against a weak spurs defense and a good hawks defense, but one that is susceptible to the strength of the spurs offense. This play has great over refs with fraher, zarba and tiven which should help out considering both defenses are adept at avoiding fouls. I have this game set at 192 giving us over 4 points of value and the total has started to jump despite 70% on the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
                                              Comment
                                              • Pick'nParlays
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-22-08
                                                • 3134

                                                #2578
                                                bol lta
                                                Comment
                                                • h23jdmlude
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 01-11-12
                                                  • 144

                                                  #2579
                                                  Thanks for the pick LTA. I'm locked in at 189.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • apurvaas
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 01-09-12
                                                    • 586

                                                    #2580
                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                    NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/25/2012

                                                    Play #1

                                                    Hawks/Spurs over (187.5) 1x (Locked)


                                                    No time for writeups today. We have two efficient offenses against a weak spurs defense and a good hawks defense, but one that is susceptible to the strength of the spurs offense. This play has great over refs with fraher, zarba and tiven which should help out considering both defenses are adept at avoiding fouls. I have this game set at 192 giving us over 4 points of value and the total has started to jump despite 70% on the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
                                                    Thanks for the play! locked in at 187.5 earlier at local! In sports option, i see 60% public is on over!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Redscot
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-16-11
                                                      • 2571

                                                      #2581
                                                      Originally posted by apurvaas
                                                      Thanks for the play! locked in at 187.5 earlier at local! In sports option, i see 60% public is on over!
                                                      Actually I see 69 % on UNDER atm Apurvaas.

                                                      On another note, where do you have the total of the Washington game LTA? That has risen as well despite 82% on under

                                                      Also, Al Jefferson has been upgraded to probable for Utah.

                                                      Comment
                                                      • Love The Action
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                        • 10952

                                                        #2582
                                                        Originally posted by apurvaas
                                                        Thanks for the play! locked in at 187.5 earlier at local! In sports option, i see 60% public is on over!
                                                        I think you are reading the percentages incorrectly. Sports insights, sportsspy and sprtsbook.com all have 65% or more of all bets on the under making the under a very popular play. I like the over. GL
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Love The Action
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 11-08-10
                                                          • 10952

                                                          #2583
                                                          Originally posted by Redscot
                                                          Actually I see 69 % on UNDER atm Apurvaas.

                                                          On another note, where do you have the total of the Washington game LTA? That has risen as well despite 82% on under

                                                          Also, Al Jefferson has been upgraded to probable for Utah.

                                                          I think its accurately set now in tge 193-194 range. The market is simply reacting to the coaching change and the new coach's comments that he wants washington to run more and play at a faster pace. However, charlotte is without augustin again and i'm not sure the wiz can play any faster. No play for me but gl
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Redscot
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-16-11
                                                            • 2571

                                                            #2584
                                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                            I think its accurately set now in tge 193-194 range. The market is simply reacting to the coaching change and the new coach's comments that he wants washington to run more and play at a faster pace. However, charlotte is without augustin again and i'm not sure the wiz can play any faster. No play for me but gl
                                                            Thanks bud I'm not playing it, was just curious about the dubious line movement. GL tonight looking forward to the rest of your card.

                                                            Comment
                                                            • apurvaas
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 01-09-12
                                                              • 586

                                                              #2585
                                                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                              I think its accurately set now in tge 193-194 range. The market is simply reacting to the coaching change and the new coach's comments that he wants washington to run more and play at a faster pace. However, charlotte is without augustin again and i'm not sure the wiz can play any faster. No play for me but gl
                                                              right now SO is showing 53% over! Here is the screenshot! I tailed you on Over by d way.. Was mentioning what I saw! no offense!
                                                              Attached Files
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Redscot
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-16-11
                                                                • 2571

                                                                #2586
                                                                Originally posted by apurvaas
                                                                right now SO is showing 53% over! Here is the screenshot! I tailed you on Over by d way.. Was mentioning what I saw! no offense!
                                                                Wow, that's a huge discrepancy from the other sites I use, an no way I'd take offense bud, we are all in this together .

                                                                Comment
                                                                • apurvaas
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 01-09-12
                                                                  • 586

                                                                  #2587
                                                                  Originally posted by Redscot
                                                                  Wow, that's a huge discrepancy from the other sites I use, an no way I'd take offense bud, we are all in this together .

                                                                  I checked sportsspy and see the same! Don't know what to believe! A friend of mine uses Dob Best.. Have to text him
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jas19illini
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 10-27-10
                                                                    • 682

                                                                    #2588
                                                                    At my book, almost 60% are on the San Antonio over. Weird...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Love The Action
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                                      • 10952

                                                                      #2589
                                                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                      NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/25/2012

                                                                      Play #1

                                                                      Hawks/Spurs over (187.5) 1x (Locked)


                                                                      No time for writeups today. We have two efficient offenses against a weak spurs defense and a good hawks defense, but one that is susceptible to the strength of the spurs offense. This play has great over refs with fraher, zarba and tiven which should help out considering both defenses are adept at avoiding fouls. I have this game set at 192 giving us over 4 points of value and the total has started to jump despite 70% on the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

                                                                      Play #2

                                                                      Nuggets (-6) 1x (Locked)


                                                                      Writeup to come. Denver has a huge advantage in both offensive and defensive efficiency, is rested and is facing a kings team in a bad situational spot and without arguably its best player (thornton is out). I have denver set at -8 giving us a full fg in value and i'm rolling with the nuggz for 1x. Good luck.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ultrasouth
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-23-10
                                                                        • 1175

                                                                        #2590
                                                                        BOL lta
                                                                        Comment
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