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Denver 240 (247.89)
Golden State -5 (+.01)
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Utah 199.5 (204.16)
Dallas -4 (-4.8)
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LA Lakers -15.5 (-17.47)
LA Clippers 208.5 (198.88)
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1. Denver +5
Anyone following the NBA knows about this game. Huge game for both teams as they fight for the last spot in the East. Denver is healthy - ZERO - injuries. Combination of no injuries, the situation that they have to play good or their season is over, and 5 points of value gives me an easy play.
2. Denver over 237
I said I was done playing over/unders in the NBA.....after this season maybe. But really these two teams don't play any defense. Denver's over%=58.4% while GS's over%=52.6%. Combine that with a line that i have 8 pts higher than the open AND 11 points higher than the line move and i think we have a solid play. I'll play this one for half as much as I play the spread just because i'm not comfortable with totals. This game SHOULD and will go down to the wire. Lots of fouls in the end.
A lean:
Lakers under 209
This is a lean and not a play because the Clippers have nothing to play for. You don't know which team is going to show up one that wants to win and will play defense, or one that doesn't care if they win and just plays to make points. Lakers under%=51.9% and Clippers under%=58.4% I have this total at 198.88