With the NBA holding its All-Star game this weekend, it's time to look ahead to what sits on the horizon in the season's final eight weeks of play, beginning with the Atlantic Division.
Boston Celtics
Boston was a remarkable 32-17 ATS in the first half, best in the NBA, which is not often the case with the teams with the best straight-up record. They had some much-anticipated so-so clusters ATS, but those wound up being less pronounced than a lot of people were expecting, and they actually closed out the half on a 6-1-1 ATS high note. That closing run came with Kevin Garnett injured, which is probably what created the line value in that span.
But it does show that Boston is a team with some real depth and resilience. We will see what happens to their lines when Garnett returns – the market may overreact and send them into the stratosphere. But in general, Boston figures to be as tough of a team to bet against in the second half as they were in the first.
Toronto Raptors
Toronto was a solid overall ATS bet in the first half, cashing at about 55%, good for 7th best in the NBA, and I expect them to match or even surpass that number in the second half. The Raptors were last year’s top ATS team in the NBA, and while they may no longer be “flying under the radar”, I still don’t get the feeling that the market is valuing them as much as it ought to. Injuries in the first half probably played a role in mitigating their winning ways, but they are definitely a team on the brink of hitting their prime, and they have notable balance up and down the lineup.
If T.J. Ford returns to top form after coming back from his scary injury, and Jorge Garbajosa can contribute effectively when he comes back, Toronto will also have depth that will serve them well in the stretch run. The Raptors should be a team to be reckoned with in the second half, and probably a good team to bet on as well.
I would also look for Toronto to trend under in the second half. When the Raptors are playing their best ball, they are a tough defensive team, especially at home. Last year they went 34-47 O/U, while this year they trended over in the first half, due to a 16-9 O/U record on the road. But as the playoffs approach, I’ll be looking for Raptors home games that come with totals set in the 190s that are more likely to see final scores in the 180s range.
New Jersey Nets
Who knows what the second half has in store for the Nets, but it probably won’t be good. With Vince Carter and Jason Kidd, the Nets had some big names in their lineup which belied their lack of ability, and they wound up as the second-worst ATS team in the NBA in the first half, cashing at only 37%. Now with Kidd gone, it’s looking like a lost season for New Jersey, but I think the market may be slow to react on that.
I think there will have to be a sharp devaluation of the Nets to bring them to even as a bet, and that may not happen. With the market’s relatively poor ability to accurately assess the Nets, and the blockbuster trade with Dallas creating a major roster shakeup, things are looking unclear for New Jersey in the second half, and they are a team that bears paying close attention to see how everything settles.
Philadelphia 76ers
Philly was a streaky team ATS in the first half, and I’m not convinced that is was due to random chance; they have a talented but somewhat incomplete team, and as such they are prone to substantial swings in performance. On the year, the Sixers were only slightly over 50% ATS, but they closed out the half on a run of 8-1 ATS, which was preceded by a 3-9 ATS slump. I suspect we’ll see more of the same from them in the second half, maybe a bit more weighted toward the down side.
Samuel Dalembert can be a monster on defense, and Andre Iguadala and Andre Miller can at times form an impressive tandem at guard. But overall, there’s not enough depth and relative talent to give a promising forecast to Philly for the second half. The market does seem to have them pegged accurately overall, but there will still likely be good opportunities on various Sixer games due to their likely up and down swings.
New York Knicks
The Knicks’ dysfunction as a team and as an organization was on shining display this year. Chaotic stories in the press, shameful blowouts at home, and loud negative expressions by the fans were all well-documented. Through it all, however, despite sporting a sub-.300 won/loss record, the Knicks actually came out at almost .500 ATS in the first half, which may surprise some people.
They were 14-10 ATS on the road, and 11-16 ATS at home, which stands to reason a bit since the extra points they got due to an assumed home court edge were probably not warranted, and in fact because of all the turmoil, they may well have suffered a home court disadvantage in the first half.
In my opinion, Stephon Marbury was a significant factor in the Knicks’ underperformance in the first half. When he went out with an injury on January 13th, I felt it was probably a beneficial thing for the Knicks, and they did in fact go 11-5 ATS to close out the first half after losing Marbury. They were 17-10 ATS overall when Marbury didn’t play, and 8-16 when he did. I don’t see this as a huge coincidence. When they were on the road, without the pressures of Madison Square Garden, and with no Marbury, the Knicks were 10-4 ATS. This is indicative of the talent that I have always believed was lurking with this group of players.
It is anyone’s guess what Act II of this circus will bring, but I will always have in my mind that there is talent on this team, and the market may well leave considerable value at times with the Knicks. I’ll be on the lookout for signs of this value in the second half as I was in the first half.
From the Orlando Magic storming out of the gate to the Miami Heat redefining underachieving, the NBA's Southeast Division was full of drama in the first half of the season.
Orlando Magic
Orlando exploded out of the gate in the first half, which is why at the break they do stand as the third-best overall ATS team in the league at 33-20. But all of that line value and on-court dominance from their explosive start, which resulted in eye-popping records of 16-4 SU and 17-3 ATS, soon faded, and things settled into a 50/50 groove for the Magic the rest of the way, both ATS and SU.
It’s not clear how Orlando will fare in the second half. Their roster is talented, without question, but usually not quite dominant, and they probably don’t have the depth or durability to bring line value when already assumed to be a top NBA team, as they will be in the second half.
All in all, I think Orlando will play reasonably well down the stretch of the regular season, and their story as far as value is concerned may well be different once the playoffs start. But I do expect them to be a .500 ATS team at best in the second half, and possibly less than that. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended the season near .500 ATS overall.
Washington Wizards
Washington’s first half was defined by the injury to Gilbert Arenas, but as I suspected, it didn’t seem to hurt the team at all, and may have helped them. Arenas is an exciting and mercurial player, but in the NBA guys like that can often hurt a team’s bottom line. The Wizards went 26-18 ATS after Arenas went down, winding up sixth best in the NBA ATS at the break.
A big reason for this is how well Caron Butler took over as the team leader, a quieter but possibly more effective one. Surrounding him is a solid crew of big men and guards, and Washington wound up being a sleeper team of sorts in the first half, as their good ATS record was not reflected in SU wins and losses, where they wound up actually under .500.
Arenas is slated to return soon, as early as late February, and when he does things are likely to change on all fronts for Washington, possibly for the better, possibly for the worse. So it’s hard to forecast at this point what will happen and how the lines will respond, but it bears paying close attention to. The market will likely have a tough time correctly valuing the Wizards, and there may be a good amount of value in games involving Washington in the second half.
Atlanta Hawks
In the first half, Atlanta exhibited a not uncommon pattern of sub-par but not terrible teams; at home they were often able to focus and play better than expected, while on the road they often had a tough time keeping it together and wound up looking ugly. As a result, they were a solid 15-11 ATS at home, and 9-14 ATS on the road.
The Hawks don’t have the greatest or deepest roster in the world, but they do have a few good shooters and a rookie center with potential in Al Horford. I see their second half as likely to be similar to their first, which is probably a good thing from a betting perspective. They will probably have value as a go-against on the road when facing a team in a promising spot, and they will probably have value as a play-on at home when facing a team in a bad spot. And they may also have value with their totals, conforming to whatever style of play the teams opposing them prefer.
Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte has been a major disappointment this season and it’s not clear exactly why. They have had their share of injuries, but they still should probably be closer to .500. Emeka Okafor is at times excellent, and at other times overmatched. He seems to do well when the opposing team does not have a dominant force inside, and when they do, he often disappears.
But things are not looking good for Charlotte at all. They have pinned some of their hopes on Earl Boykins, an undersized point guard who hasn’t played in a while, and his return was not a pretty sight. The Bobcats closed out the half losing 7 out of 8 SU, and 6 out of 7 ATS. When they return from the break, they will be playing 15 out of their first 21 second half games on the road, where they were 6-15 ATS in the first half. Those road games may be a disaster all the way around, and they may well lose interest and passion, and get blown out night after night.
Certainly this is not a given, as there is talent on the team, and they did have the occasional truly impressive performance in the first half, most notably their double-digit road win over Boston as a double-digit underdog. But they went on 2 major ATS losing streaks in the first half, and as they are clearly prone to that sort of thing, I will be keeping an eye out for it throughout the second half.
Miami Heat
Well, Miami was the worst team in the NBA in the first half, both SU and ATS, their ATS record coming in at 18-33. They closed out the first half losing a shameful 24 out of 25 SU, which is of course close to the worst final-25-games-of-the-first-half record ever in the NBA, if not the worst. Their lone win since Christmas was an eked-out 2-point home win over Indiana. And they weren’t covering during that stretch either, going only 5-19 ATS over that span.
Of course, Dwayne Wade is a marquee player, and Shawn Marion is a surprising and beneficial addition. So there were reports of “positivity” coming out of the Miami camp as the half came to a close. But this is a team with not much going for it at all, and with the addition of Marion, and the presence of Coach Pat Riley and Wade, the market may actually refuse to correctly value the Heat all season long, no matter how long their futility keeps up.
Riley may be able to pull some magic with this crew in the second half, but if he does, I have a feeling the market will overreact to any success this team has, and inappropriately raise their valuation at the slightest hint. We’ll see how it all shakes out as the weeks go by, but right now I have a very negative view of the Heat as a betting proposition, for all these reasons.
The Pistons have pretty much followed their old script so far this season, playing solid defense and busting out to a 10-game lead in the Central Division as All-Star weekend arrives.
Detroit Pistons
Detroit followed a similar pattern to last year in the first half this year: One of the leading Win-Loss records in the NBA, a much lower but still decently positive ATS record, and a solid lean towards the under. Despite everyone knowing that Detroit is an elite team, the market has undervalued them a bit over the last year and a half. Spread-wise, things are a far cry from 2005-2006, when Detroit had the best record in the NBA, but a sub-.500 ATS record.
Why is this the case? It’s not entirely clear. It’s probably that Detroit has been so good for so long that the market is expecting a downturn that hasn’t happened. The Pistons, by their own admission, do have a tendency to get distracted at times. And the market, of course, will not be afraid of making them dominating favorites game-in and game-out. So I actually expect Detroit to have a near-.500 ATS record in the second half, even though they are likely to have a similar won/lost record straight up.
As far as Detroit’s totals are concerned, the value they have had as an under bet for so long I expect to continue into the second half. This is because Detroit is a team that prefers to play a defensive style, particularly at home where they are more likely to control the pace, but also has the real capability of upper-range scoring at times, particularly on the road where they are more likely to conform to the opposing team’s style of play. This capability keeps their totals lines a bit high overall, and it is why they continually trend under. Over the last 5½ years, Detroit has not had one year where they hit 50% overs, and overall they have gone under more than 54% of the time in that span.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs had a very inconsistent first half of play. In the early months, they were unfocused on defense, which is normally their strength and their pride, and in the later months, they suffered far more than their share of injuries to key players. As a result, their straight up won/lost record is probably a few notches lower than it should be, and their O/U record is probably shaded to the over more than it should be.
But Cleveland, of course, does have an impressively talented and cohesive roster, probably one of the best in the NBA. The All-Star break may not be enough to bring the team back to full health, but if it does, they may be an elite team in the second half, and come away with a good ATS record.
However, I actually think the best value with them may well come in the playoffs, when they are playing better teams and therefore either getting points or giving only a few, and when their top players have had extended time to heal and rest if they need it. The Cavs may play out the season in the second half sub-optimally, getting healthy and geared up for the playoffs, playing significantly below their top capability. If that happens, they will likely be an average-at-best bet during the regular season, but then become quite a good bet come playoff time.
Indiana Pacers
Indiana was very much a vanilla team to bet in the first half. The Pacers’ ATS and O/U records hovered around 50% all year, both at home and on the road. They did show a tendency at times to become involved in very high-scoring games, but that didn’t quite translate into a strong lean towards the over, as they stand at 27-24 O/U at the break.
The Pacers may well change their style of play or alter their focus with their roster, and if they do, their bet results may well be affected. If and when Jermaine O’Neal comes back I don’t think will wind up having that much of an effect on the team as a whole. Their season is in the garbage right now, and they probably won’t make the playoffs. Their talent is sub-par, and they’ll probably play out the season losing most of their games, with appropriate valuations by the market.
However, they will also probably be a decent team to have involved in a bet when playing another team with a strong tendency, as the Pacers won’t be too likely to offer much resistance to whatever tendency that might be.
Chicago Bulls
What exactly happened to the Chicago Bulls? I remember when this same cast of players a few years ago was, for a reasonably extended period of time, one of the best ATS bets I’ve seen in the NBA in recent years. The names are mostly the same – Gordon, Hinrich, Duhon, Deng, Nocioni. They’ve added Ben Wallace and Joakim Noah. But things completely collapsed, as only Miami and New Jersey were worse ATS in the first half. As with many overrated teams, Chicago was particularly overrated at home, with a record of 8-16 ATS when having to overcome the extra points conferred by an assumed home court advantage.
Most of the line value betting against the Bulls was taken care of after the first few weeks of the season; people were expecting a quality team, but Chicago was 2-10 ATS to start things off. The market quickly adjusted, and the Bulls settled into a mostly 50/50 overall proposition once it was realized that the ship was broken. They then suffered through a coaching change and a host of injuries to most of their top players at one time or another.
But this is a ship that could easily get righted, and the Bulls may go on a strong streak during part of, or even the entire second half; the past performance is there. If that happens, the market will probably adjust more quickly than it would with other teams, but there should still be at least a little clear value hanging around. But it will definitely be a dangerous move to bet on a turnaround without a good reason to believe it is taking place.
Milwaukee Bucks
I expected Milwaukee to be better this year, and evidently so did the market, as they were overrated to the tune of 23-29 ATS. Mo Williams and Michael Redd form a quality backcourt, and Andrew Bogut, Charlie Villanueva, and Yi Jianlian constitute a young frontcourt with a load of potential. The Bucks even have decent depth.
As always, it can’t be known how the market will react if various changes in performance take place. But Milwaukee enters the break on a low note, and I would not be at all surprised if Coach Larry Krystkowiak can pull things together and have Milwaukee playing quality ball right out of the gate, or as the regular season winds to a close. If you’re looking for a sleeper team in the second half to have a strong showing ATS, the Bucks might be one.
That the New Orleans Hornets are improved and a contender this season is no surprise. But the fact they sit ahead of the Spurs and Mavericks in the SW Division is a mild shock.
New Orleans Hornets
I was expecting New Orleans to do well this year, particularly ATS, although being in first place in the Southwest Division at the All-Star break, ahead of both Dallas and the Spurs, is a bit of a surprise. At 31-19 ATS, the Hornets were fourth-best in the NBA, and it was spread out consistently over the entire span of the half, in notable contrast to a similar upstart ATS leader of the first half, Orlando. Health is a concern for these guys, as lack of depth is one of their weaknesses. But their starting five is as talented and cohesive as any in the league.
The big question for the second half is how strongly the market will begin to inflate their lines. That is as much a psychological issue as any, as visions of the New Orleans teams of recent memory may be having a subtle effect on their current valuations. I’m not sure the market is ready to give the same kind of day-in, day-out elite-team line treatment it gives to the stalwart elites of recent years.
I suspect, however, that when all is said and done, the Hornets will be over .500 ATS in the second half as well, but only slightly so. Signs of this were already appearing at the end of the first half, which they closed out on a four-game winning streak, but covered the spread in only two of those games.
Again, however, if one or more of their starters goes out with an injury in the second half, the profile of this team could change quite significantly.
San Antonio Spurs
Although there were indications that the Spurs were slipping a bit from their awesome form of years past, they still of course won two-thirds of their games and came away with the sixth-best won/lost record in the NBA in the first half. As usual though, the market was right on top of how good they are, and had them valued very well, as they came in at only 24-26 ATS. And also as usual, they had a solid trend to the under, coming in at 20-31 O/U.
The Spurs are a steady and unusually predictable team, and the trends they exhibited in the first half are the same they have exhibited in recent years, and I do expect them to roughly continue that way throughout the season. I don’t actually see Tony Parker’s injury or return as too terribly important, since the Spurs are a well-tested machine, and have a bit of interchangeability as far as individual players are concerned.
When the playoffs roll around, things will be different. But for the duration of the regular season, I see more under trending and .500 ATS performance in store.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas, very similar to San Antonio, is an elite team without any line value. Despite their awesome displays of on-court dominance in recent years, they have hovered around .500 ATS through it all, and this year, actually may have been even significantly overrated, as they sit as 21-29 ATS at the break, despite a won/lost record of 35-18. That is not likely to change any time soon, and it could get worse if the addition of Jason Kidd becomes a reality.
Kidd is a big name, and would no doubt, at least to start with, drive Dallas’ lines even higher. But I’m not at all sure this would be a good match. Dallas prefers to play a post-up, tough defense, half-court game, which is considerably at odds with Kidd’s known preferred open-court style of running an offense. And at 36, it’s not clear that raw talent would be able to make up at all for any lack of cohesion that may result when if becomes the floor general. I would not be surprised one bit to see Dallas start off the second half on a bad ATS run, and probably also on a run of unders, if they do wind up acquiring Kidd.
But regardless of what happens with the Kidd deal, there is not likely to be overall line value with Dallas, although there may be in spot situations.
Houston Rockets
Houston completes the triumvirate of winning, under-trending, defense-oriented, half-court style Southwest Division teams with little or no overall line value, along with the Spurs and Dallas. Following the familiar pattern, Houston was 32-20 SU, but only 27-24 ATS, and 21-30 O/U. Amazingly though, despite playing .615 ball in the first half, the Rockets still would not even make the playoffs if the season ended at the break.
The Rockets, anchored of course by Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, can be awesomely dominant when both are healthy and on their game. But they are also two of the most injury-prone stars in the NBA, and when one goes down, Houston usually suffers significantly. The supporting cast is a bit better in my opinion than in years past though, and I would not be at all surprised if Houston went on a run of dominance at some point, easily covering a number of spreads in a row. But there is always an aura of fragility to this version of the Rockets, and it’s always wise to keep general impressions of them up-to-date, as they can change more starkly than most in the NBA.
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is strictly in rebuilding mode heading into the second half; trading away Pau Gasol removed any doubts about that. They seem resigned to it, and reasonably satisfied with it in fact, happy to develop burgeoning talent Rudy Gay and a quite healthy number of other youngsters who could well form the nucleus of a contender in the future.
The Grizzlies weren’t even so bad ATS in the first half, weighing in at 24-28. Because they do have a good, future-oriented attitude through all of their losing, they could easily sneak up at any point and become a strong ATS team towards the end of the year, as often happens with the equivalents of Memphis in other years. In fact, I would predict that it is likely. I will be on the lookout for signs of it; if it looks like it is happening, Memphis could enter a stretch with significant value on their side of the lines, which may also linger in the market, depending on when and how it happens.
Utah was a solid 22-3 on their home court before the All-Star break and the Jazz have a solid core of veteran stars. But will they be able to hold off Denver and Portland down the stretch?
Utah Jazz
Utah had an ATS profile in the first half typical of a team from their neck of the woods; solidly positive when at home, and solidly negative when on the road. Utah has a legitimately talented team this year, with several bona fide elite players in their prime, and as such, I expect the Jazz to be dominant at home in the second half and probably profitable ATS.
If they stay free of injuries, they may well be undervalued on the road as well. Utah actually covered the spread in six of their final seven road games of the first half.
Denver Nuggets
Denver had a very similar ATS and SU profile overall to Utah, which doesn’t come as a huge surprise. Their prospects for the second half, however, I am not as confident about for a few reasons. First of all, Denver’s top players as a group are not as durable as Utah’s, and are a bit older as well.
Secondly, the Nuggets are not nearly as disciplined a team as the Jazz are, and the Nuggets are also prone to major lapses on defense when they lose their focus. There is an air of selfishness on this team, which always gives me a bit of pause. I will be watching closely to see how things materialize for Denver in the second half, but as they are likely to be very highly valued no matter what happens, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see them end up quite negative ATS in the second half.
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland was one of the most remarkable, and probably the streakiest, ATS teams in the first half. With a core group of exceedingly talented but young players led by second-year guard Brandon Roy, their up and downs were not a big surprise. They improbably had two different ATS losing streaks of at least seven games, which sandwiched an awesome stretch of 18 games where they covered 16 times. Savvy cappers were on top of both their ups and their downs, as signs of both being for real were readily apparent at their respective times.
Similar ups and downs are likely in the second half, although they probably won’t be as clumped together as they were in the first half. The market did eventually warm to the idea that the Blazers are much better now than they have been in recent memory, although it did take a while for that to happen, to the benefit of those who caught it early. But I expect a very 50/50 second half for the Blazers as far as ATS performance is concerned, since their youth and inexperience will still likely keep them from becoming a top team this year, but their ability to play even with anyone on any given night is now fully known, so there won’t likely be any line value with them for an extended set of consecutive games.
Seattle Supersonics
If Seattle were in the Eastern Conference, they would probably have a much better overall win/loss record. But in the West, where a full nine teams are over .600, there is no way the Sonics can get away with the kind of inexperienced, mistake-prone game they usually play. Still, from an ATS perspective, Seattle gets a lot of points most games, and as a result they were close to .500 ATS at the break.
Seattle is not quite in “rebuild” mode as a team like Memphis is, but seem to be more of in “wait for Kevin Durant” mode. I’m not sure how promising this is for their prospects at a bet in the second half, because their enthusiasm, attitude and focus are likely to wane down the stretch. Much of the team is actually comprised of veterans, and it’s not clear how much they will want to play with the season already completely down the drain.
There may well be value with them at some point though, if the market writes them off as garbage, but the vets for some reason start to get it together a bit. They do have a reasonable slate of players on their roster. But it will definitely take a clear sign or two that that is the case before it becomes a wise move to look for value with them on a regular basis.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota was one of the worst teams in the NBA in the first half of course, and was even overrated for most of it to boot. But towards the end, out of nowhere, they actually began to play much better, and closed the half on a 9-3 ATS run, despite also losing their last five in a row outright.
It’s not clear at all how the market will value the Timberwolves, or how their young and undisciplined team will respond down the stretch. But it is very likely that Minnesota will get a lot of points day-in and day-out when playing the quality teams in the West in the second half, and I suspect that Minnesota will have good value in isolated spots when playing against one of those teams in a “down” spot in the schedule. If the playoff race becomes heated and a contending team has a slew of games against other contenders with a game against the T-wolves thrown into the mix, that might be a game where the favorite is not looking to run up the score as much as they might be capable.
Shaquille O'Neal's recent move west has been the talk of the NBA and could be just the thing to keep the Suns in the lead. Or could it motivate Kobe and the Lakers instead?
Phoenix Suns
Well as everyone knows, Shaq has come to town in Phoenix, and as a result Phoenix’ lines, both their sides and totals, should be some of the most interesting lines to analyze and follow in the second half. The clear consensus of most people who follow the NBA is that the Shaq trade was bad for the Suns, and that their offense and win percentage will both suffer. I’m taking a wait-and-see attitude towards it, but it’s hard to imagine how their scoring totals will be able to remain in the stratosphere if lumbering Shaq plays a majority of minutes each game.
It is possible that Phoenix plans to use Shaq relatively sparingly, in which case their totals may remain as elevated as ever, but I think their won/lost record will still take a hit in that case nonetheless. Shawn Marion was a key cog in the Suns’ machinery, and it won’t be as explosive without him if he isn’t replaced somehow.
In general though, all the uncertainty surrounding Shaq’s current skill level and role with the team, combined with the Suns’ unique style of play, could well create good value somewhere with Phoenix for at least a short period of time, so I will be watching closely for signs of that in the second half.
Los Angeles Lakers
At 32-18 ATS, the Lakers were the second-most profitable team to bet on in the NBA in the first half, which is a bit surprising considering that huge-market teams like the Lakers, with star players like Kobe, tend not to have line value when they are winning. But that was indeed the case with the Lakers in the first half, and this value was even sustained and evenly distributed throughout; the Lakers actually closed out the half on a 9-1 ATS run.
For the second half, there are many key unknowns with the Lakers. How will the market adjust the Lakers’ lines? How much will Kobe’s injured hand affect his performance, and how much will the market perceive its importance? How well will the Lakers, with their roster now logjammed with talent with the addition of Pau Gasol, be able to find chemistry and balance to take advantage of all that talent, especially when Andrew Bynum returns? The answers aren’t clear at all, and Kobe may even have surgery on his hand, which will sideline him for 6 weeks or so, and change the picture dramatically. I’ll be watching closely, but I will be pretty surprised if the Lakers wind up much over .500 ATS for the second half.
Golden State Warriors
I had Golden State pegged as an overvalued team from the get-go, and they did in fact enter the break at 22-30 ATS. I expect more of the same from the Warriors in the second half, as they have a straight-up record over .600 which will likely serve to keep their lines inflated, but I don’t see them as having a roster capable of playing to that assumed level against the tough teams in the West down the stretch.
Towards the end of the first half, Golden State’s tendency to win games as a favorite but not cover became more pronounced. The Warriors actually ended the half winning 7 out of their last 9 games, but covering the spread in only 2 of those games.
Golden State’s pattern of response to the lines is one that I think will continue into the second half, for various reasons. Basically, they are given too many points when they are a favorite, although their money lines tend to be appropriate; over their last 20 games as a favorite, the Warriors are 15-5 SU, but only 6-14 ATS, a stark disparity. As an underdog, however, it is the opposite; they are given an appropriate amount of points in the spread, but their money lines give them value on an outright win. There has only been one game in their last 20 as an underdog when they covered the spread but didn’t win the game outright (9-11 SU, 10-10 ATS). So in the second half, I’ll be looking to bet the Warriors on the money line as a dog, and looking to fade them as a favorite.
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento’s first half was marked by instability and a lack of cohesion and direction; they suffered through a spate of injuries, and have been resistant towards Coach Reggie Theus’ desire for them to be more of a slash and attack team, and less of a jump shooting team on offense. And now, Mike Bibby has been traded away, which may be good for the Kings overall, even in the short run, as Bibby appears to have lost a step.
But this is a squad with solid NBA talent overall, and while they won’t make the playoffs, they have the capability of being legitimately competitive game-in and game-out if they want to be. But it’s also a squad that is more than a bit of a “head case” collectively, and down the stretch with nothing to play for but draft position and spoiler pride, things may well curdle with this Ron Artest-led group. Unless things really do go down the drain attitude-wise however, I do think Sacramento’s talent alone will be enough to keep them around .500 ATS. But unless a selfless desire to play to their potential pops up out of nowhere, they won’t get much higher than .500 ATS either.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers had promise at the beginning of the year, but Elton Brand went down with an injury right before the start of the season, and things eventually sputtered into the old familiar routine for the Clippers, marked by a lot of losses and a modestly negative ATS record. Brand is due back in early March, and together with Corey Maggette and Chris Kaman, the Clippers do in theory have a strong frontcourt when everyone is healthy. But it’s likely too late to get anything going this season, and more losses, more big underdog lines, and an ATS record close to .500 looks to me to be what the Clippers have to look forward to playing out the year.
Of course, it’s possible that the market will overreact to the Clippers’ futility, and that they will at the same time respond with some sort of eager pride to wind the year down. But in my opinion it’s more likely that they will continue having health problems, continue to want for youth and fresh legs in their backcourt, and play about to the level the market expects.
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