This is one play that I just love tonight. I have been looking at some info for this game for the last 2 hours, and I just dont buy the line move in this game.
The Cetics vs. Pacers game opened up at 200 and one place I saw had 199 1/2 yesterday. Now the line is 205 and I dont understand that at all. There is no justification that I can see for a 5 1/2 point line move to the over here.
Yes, The Celtics have been down lately. But they have been down because they havent been scoring, not because the have been giving up big points. Yes, 2 nights ago the Grizzlies got 111 on them. The Grizzlies can shoot behind the arc and defeat the Celtics strong post defense. The Grizzlies seem to score 110 plus every time I see their scores.
On Tuesday, I watched the entire Bucks vs. Celtics game, and let me tell you the Celtics defense is good. The Bucks didn't get too many open looks in the entire game. The only thing that kept the game from being a blowout was the fact that the Celtics could not score themselves. The Bucks won 86-84.
That is a better Bucks offense than the Pacers offense for sure. The Celtics have played 6 games this month. They have given up 100, 80, 86, 83, 86, and then the 111 to Memphis. That works out to an average of 91 points, and I would say this Pacers offense is weaker than most that the Celtics have seen this month.
The Celtics last 8 games, they have scored 740 points for an average of 92 1/2 PPG.
The Pacers defense does worry me a little bit. It flat out sucks and I fear that if the Celtics are on tonight they could score 120. Still I think it will take at least 115, probably 120 from the Celtics for this game to go over. If the Celtics are on that pace going into the fourth, this game will be a blowout and they will slow it down in the final quarter.
Say its 90-70 going into the fourth, then I doubt we will even see 40 scored in that quarter, let alone the 45 that will still be needed.. I just dont think this game can go over this total with Celtics alone. The Pacers will have to score well into the 90's and I just dont see that.
Maybe the sharps see something here that I am missing, but I just cant see the reason for the line move here. This is a game that could also very easily be a blowout, which to me screams under. I would have played this game under the 200 last night so I really love it now with an extra 5 points.
I guess we will see who is right, but I will go with the linesmakers here and say that the 200 they put out to open this game is closer the 205 that it has now been inflated to.
This will be one of my biggest plays in a while, yeah $110 to win $100 and that is huge for me. I am risking it since I am getting 5 free points and still a -110 line.
I guess we will see. It wont be the first time I lost. The Pacers have been shut down and the Celtics do have good Defense. I just feel its hard to take it over 205 when it opened at 200. Could still go over, but if there was any value, the 5 point line move crushed that.
Still I think the under might have even been the play at 200. The only thing I can see is that Memphis got 111 on Celtics Wednesday night. The Pacers are not Memphis.
I think if it goes over the 205, the Celtics will cover easily. Cant see the Pacers covering unless its under.
Hope your right Lakerboy. Opened at 200, getting an extra 5 points. I will take that all day at -110. Wont win them all, but give me an extra 5 points line move on air and I will take a shot.
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CELTICS UNDER 205 ( I say BAD LINE MOVE )
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Originally Posted by nobs
