With the 2019 NBA playoffs in full swing, there are plenty of betting opportunities every night. Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- will be here each day throughout the postseason, giving their best bets for the evening's games.
Game 4 line: Warriors -3.5 Game 4 over/under: 219.5 Fortenbaugh: Golden State is plus-36 in scoring differential through the first three games of this series -- and that's with the Blazers thinking they had a chance to compete. What's the current mindset inside the Portland locker room now that the team is down 0-3 after blowing a 15-point halftime lead in Game 2 and a 12-point halftime lead at home in Game 3?
Damian Lillard is battling a rib injury and shooting 32.6 percent in the series (15-for-46), while backcourt teammate CJ McCollum is converting from the floor just 37 percent of the time (23-for-62). No need to overthink this one. The Western Conference finals will conclude in convincing fashion on Monday night.
Pick: Warriors -3.5
Johnson: If it seems drastic seeing Portland getting four points at home (at the time of this writing) after laying three points as a favorite in Game 3 -- it's because it is. The Game 3 home team down 0-to-2 in the series is generally inflated on the spread a little bit, and the team down 0-to-3 facing elimination at home in Game 4 is generally dismissed. But a swing of seven points is really extreme (especially for a team that led by double-digits in the third quarter of each of the past two games). Not to mention Andre Iguodala is officially questionable with a calf injury for Game 4. I would be fairly surprised if he bothered playing in this one with plenty of cushion between the Warriors and the NBA Finals. As thin as Golden State is with previous injuries to DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant, Iguodala's absence is significant.
I was quick to point out that Golden State was undervalued entering the Western Conference finals as just a -500 favorite to advance. But the perception has swung the other way after three straight Warriors wins, and the value lies with Portland getting four points at home (despite the narratives facing a potential sweep). News broke after Game 3 that Damian Lillard is playing through a separated rib injury. It is bothersome, but nothing that requires surgery or anything too serious. If the news is scaring you off of backing the Trail Blazers, I understand -- better safe than sorry is never an unequivocally bad approach. But for me and my projections lining this game closer to PK and the potential that Iguodala doesn't see action, the discrepancy is large enough to warrant a play regardless of Lillard's level of health.
Pick: Blazers +4 (line has since shifted to Warriors -3.5) Western Conference finals picks
Fortenbaugh: Golden State and Portland played to a 2-2 split during the regular season (2-2 ATS as well), but you can throw that out the window due to the Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic injuries, not to mention the fact that the Warriors tend to find another gear come playoff time.
Based on what Portland faced through the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Blazers are headed for an abrupt left turn when they take the court at Oracle Arena for Game 1 on Tuesday night. Take a look at how Golden State stacks up against Denver and Oklahoma City (Portland's first two opponents) in a few crucial categories:
Field goal percentage: Golden State first, Denver 13th, Oklahoma City 19th
3-pointers made/game: Golden State third, Oklahoma City 12th, Denver 17th
3-point percentage: Golden State third, Denver 17th, Oklahoma City 22nd
Effective field goal percentage: Golden State first, Denver 15th, Oklahoma City 22nd
It's highly unlikely we see Durant in either of the first two games of this series, but the defending-champion Warriors demonstrated Friday that this team still has the requisite amount of firepower and mettle necessary to win high-level games in the postseason.
Pick: Warriors in 5 (+225)
Schultz: Portland has the best backcourt in basketball right now in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who are excelling in Terry Stotts' motion-based flow offense. As good as Lillard was against OKC, McCollum (30 points in Game 6 and 37 in Game 7) might have been even better against Denver. And I love that Lillard -- despite missing 11 of his first 12 shots in Game 7 -- had the confidence to let McCollum go to work. Both guards present a litany of challenges for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson; it's not just their scoring and playmaking, it's the manner in which they play with tons of off-the-ball movement (especially McCollum), side-to-side action and deadly pick-and-rolls from different locations.
Perhaps most surprising for Stotts has been the play of Rodney Hood and Zach Collins -- Hood as a third option (he dropped a playoff career-high 25 in Game 6 vs. the Nuggets) and Collins as a tough defender who can also make 3s. The Warriors, likely without Kevin Durant for at least Games 1 and 2, are as vulnerable as they've ever been. It's not a matter of personnel -- nobody can match the Warriors -- but rather a matter of effort and focus. Steve Kerr has grown increasingly frustrated trying to coax a championship approach out of his club. His team repeatedly experiences enigmatic lulls that last for a half or even a full game, as we saw against the Clippers in the first round. The Blazers are playing with house money right now -- and there is value in this series line as a result.
Pick: Blazers +375
Johnson: It might appear this is a tough series to bet without concrete information regarding Kevin Durant's status. In theory, this is the correct approach. It is never worthwhile to force a wager without knowledge of every potential variable -- or at least projections and pricing to reflect a missing one.
I have the Warriors advancing 91.3 percent of the time (true line of -1049) if Durant plays the entire series. If he were to miss the entirety of the series due to his calf injury, then my projections have Golden State advancing 84.6 percent of the time (true line of -549). The sentiment across the league is that Durant is likely to return at some point during the series. With the current market price at -500 for the Warriors to advance (implied 83.3 percent of the time), I think there is plenty of value to warrant a play.
Generally people aren't too comfortable laying big prices to win a smaller amount, so if you prefer to go the Warriors -1.5 series games won route at -190, I think that is a perfectly fine option as well. I've driven around Las Vegas grabbing what I can get down on Golden State at -500 myself, but -1.5 series games won equates to a similar edge.
Pick: Warriors -500 or -1.5 series games won (-190)
Kezirian: I am a huge fan of the Blazers and everything they have accomplished, but this is too much of an ask. I do not think people are giving Houston enough credit. What the Warriors did in Game 6 was incredibly impressive. The Rockets learned how to defend Golden State as well as anyone, and Steph Curry and Klay Thompson still shot it extremely well. I think the Warriors will be able to handle Portland relatively easily. Once Kevin Durant returns, this will become extremely one-sided.
Pick: Warriors -500 and -1.5 games (-190) Eastern Conference finals picks
Fortenbaugh: I like Milwaukee, but not at a price of -280 to defeat 2014 NBA champion Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors. Looking back at the first two rounds of this year's postseason, what have we learned about the Bucks that we didn't already know? The Pistons, with an injured Blake Griffin, were completely overmatched and posed no threat whatsoever during the opening salvo. Meanwhile, the Celtics were supposed to prove a formidable challenge, but Boston ate itself from within and bowed out after only five games. How much of that do we attribute to Milwaukee and how much do we assign to the opposition?
Toronto is a strong defensive squad that just survived a seven-game thriller against a quality opponent in Philadelphia. Gassed? Possibly. But the Raptors are battle-tested, highly effective when playing on the road and possess the balance and depth necessary to create some matchup problems for a Milwaukee squad that just watched Boston shoot a pathetic 37.7 percent from the floor over the final four games of their series. Had the Celtics produced that statistic during the 82-game regular season, Boston would have ranked dead last in the NBA in field-goal percentage.
Pick: Raptors +240
Johnson: I have been pro-Raptors throughout the playoffs and have no reason to change my tune now. I recommended a wager on them to win the Eastern Conference, and we are getting similar prices available now in the market. However, my projections have the Bucks advancing more often than the Raptors. If you asked me who I think wins the East, it would be Milwaukee. But that is what makes betting and the price relative to the likelihood of an event occurring so important. I believe the Bucks advance 53.5 percent of the time, which is a true line of -115. That means that I have Toronto advancing 46.5 percent of the time -- or +115 -- yet we are being offered +240. This is a significant edge.
I certainly could be slow to the rise of the Bucks as a whole. They remind me of the first iteration of the Steve Kerr Warriors, with a first-year coach and scheme that caught the league by storm. That Warriors squad wound up defeating a depleted Cleveland team in the Finals. There certainly are a few numbers and metrics showing similarities between the Bucks and the Warriors, but as a whole they aren't on the same level.
The Raptors are also really good. While the 76ers took them to the brink, it required playing their starters 40-plus minutes per game and Joel Embiid over 45 minutes. I think most people would agree that Philadelphia's starting five is one of the best in the NBA (and their bench is one of the worst). I wouldn't get too caught up in Toronto "struggling" against a 76ers team that ran their elite starting five for the majority of the game. The Raptors' strength in numbers and depth was mitigated in this case, but against Mike Budenholzer and the Bucks' rotation of nine to 10 players, Toronto will match up well. One example is Bucks stud reserve Fred VanVleet, who struggled against the Sixers' size and the fact that Philadelphia didn't even play a backup point guard the entire series. I expect VanVleet to make a positive impact against the likes of George Hill, Sterling Brown and even Malcolm Brogdon if he continues to play for Milwaukee off of the bench.
Toronto +1.5 series games won is an option as well if you are concerned about the series going seven games and the finale being played on the road in Milwaukee. Both are viable options worth betting.
Pick: Raptors +240
Schultz: Milwaukee will control this series by deploying Giannis Antetokounmpo in the open floor to punish the Raptors. The Bucks have been an offensive revelation this season, ranking first in efficiency by relying on the Greek Freak's playmaking ability. Plus, Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez all are knockdown shooters.
Toronto has the dominant Kawhi Leonard and an ideal complement in Pascal Siakam, but the lack of a bench will become more and more of a factor as the series progresses. The Bucks are deeper, more talented and have home court to boot.
The Raptors hope to do to the Bucks what the Celtics did in Game 1; catch them sleeping on their home floor. Consider that learning on the job, however. Giannis has shown a remarkable ability to lead during moments of vulnerability -- and the Bucks' ability to consistently generate stops can help mitigate any offensive woes. Milwaukee ranks third in defensive efficiency and first in both paint and rim defense.
Pick: Bucks -280
Kezirian: Come on down, because the price is right. I believe Milwaukee will win this series, but I also think -280 is too steep. Toronto still has Kawhi Leonard, who has been an offensive force this postseason, and sufficient shooting around him. We must also account for Toronto's exceptional defenders. Leonard is as good as they come, especially complementing the impressive length of Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Plus, the backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Danny Green is solid on defense.
The Bucks are 8-1 ATS this postseason, but I am most impressed with their two wins in Boston. Both were tight games at halftime and the role players showed poise, which was a question mark for this young team. Ultimately, it will come down to making outside shots. In Toronto's four wins over the Sixers, Philadelphia shot 38-for-121 (31 percent) from 3-point range. The Bucks were actually middle of the pack during the regular season (35 percent) but had the second-most attempts per game (38.2). No firm play here for the series.
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Fortenbaugh: Golden State and Portland played to a 2-2 split during the regular season (2-2 ATS as well), but you can throw that out the window due to the Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic injuries, not to mention the fact that the Warriors tend to find another gear come playoff time.
Schultz: Portland has the best backcourt in basketball right now in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who are excelling in Terry Stotts' motion-based flow offense. As good as Lillard was against OKC, McCollum (30 points in Game 6 and 37 in Game 7) might have been even better against Denver. And I love that Lillard -- despite missing 11 of his first 12 shots in Game 7 -- had the confidence to let McCollum go to work. Both guards present a litany of challenges for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson; it's not just their scoring and playmaking, it's the manner in which they play with tons of off-the-ball movement (especially McCollum), side-to-side action and deadly pick-and-rolls from different locations.
Fortenbaugh: I like Milwaukee, but not at a price of -280 to defeat 2014 NBA champion Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors. Looking back at the first two rounds of this year's postseason, what have we learned about the Bucks that we didn't already know? The Pistons, with an injured Blake Griffin, were completely overmatched and posed no threat whatsoever during the opening salvo. Meanwhile, the Celtics were supposed to prove a formidable challenge, but Boston ate itself from within and bowed out after only five games. How much of that do we attribute to Milwaukee and how much do we assign to the opposition?
Schultz: Milwaukee will control this series by deploying Giannis Antetokounmpo in the open floor to punish the Raptors. The Bucks have been an offensive revelation this season, ranking first in efficiency by relying on the Greek Freak's playmaking ability. Plus, Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez all are knockdown shooters.
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