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NBA Thurs (TNT)
Kinda weird for me to take the Celts right off the bat but seriously with all these red flags, why not? First up, Paul Pierce is listed as doubtful with his Thumb injury. Here's from rotoworld:
Paul Pierce is listed as doubtful for Thursday's game against the Cavaliers due to his thumb injury and a case of the flu, although there are also reports that Doc Rivers has already ruled him out. Marquis Daniels is also iffy with the flu, meaning Tony Allen would likely start if the other two are unable to play. Regardless of what the official word is on Pierce, it would now be shocking if he plays tomorrow.
2nd is that Cleveland Cavaliers is near perfect when they made dogs (near perfect because they gave their first L in Disney Land the other day). Third is that beefed line-up for the Cavs. Although it haven't shown much promise yet (1-1 at best with a not so dominant home game against the Hornets).
Going over the stats, we see a Boston team playing more road games so far and racking up 16 wins in 25 home games. That's a 64% winning percentage at home but an abysmal 6-18-1 at home. Gang Green Gang on games after a day of rest covered only 11 games out of 30. I lost the stat but the Celts are also horrible in covering games against teams that have a winning record of .600%.
Cleveland on the other hand just got things going for them. MoWill isn't back to his best form yet but Jamison has shown good signs in that game against the Hornets. They are a .655% road team (.76% overall) and is 16-12-1 ATS on the road with a 56% rate of covering on games after a day of rest. They are a good betting team on Thursday racking a 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 Thursday games. If there's anything, Cavs will travel to Canada the next day to play Bosh and his international cast. Boston eases out the next game resting a day then playing the Nets.
Match-up wise, trend seem to tell us that the home team would bag this game. Then again, the last 10 games are rather irrelevant. The last 5 games between the two teams (4 games from last season), we see how important Paul Pierce is going to this game. He has lead the Green men in scoring 4 of the 5 games where we see Boston winning 3 of the last 5.
Anyway, with how important Pierce is going to this game and Cavs with a beefed up line-up and a record which shows dominance in any angle you may wanna look. Cleveland seem to be the easiest pick here. After the Atlanta/Utah game the other day and Lakers/Mavs last night, I'm getting a feel here that we're staring at the very same situation here. Boston Celtics rolls over the Cavs in TNT Thursday.
CELTICS-1
Since I cap the first TNT game to go the home team, for some magical reason the road team covers like how most people see the Thursday trend going. Kidding.
Okay, so I might reconsider the Nuggets after this red flag. The last time the Denver Nuggets swept the Warriors in their season series is way back in the 2000-2001 season and that was when George McCloud dropped 24 on Jamison and the Warriors. James Posey played his 3rd year in Denver that year and Jamison's breakout season in Golden State. LOL. Talk about history.
Saw this in beware's thread:
Road favorites are 1-5 S/U and 0-6 ATS on TNT Thursday night.
Then again, our friend Skilz got this for us:
This season with -5.5 to -6.5 favorites combining to go 24-13 for nearly 65 percent.
Anyway, with that left out there let's look at more stats. Denver has never been a good road team. They are 13-14 SU and 11-14 ATS. The SU and ATS record being so close is because the Nuggets would rarely play close games. They are however perfect 4 of 4 when well rested (3 or more days of rest). They are average at best the last 10 games racking only 6 wins with a defeat in Washington to be the only eye sore. They play the Piston, off a lose in LA, the next day.
Warriors on one hand is 16-13 ATS at home but only 13-15-1 ATS after a day of rest. They have covered the last 2 games in their matchup but that's when you have Maggette score 33 on your team to help you level the scoring field a bit. Then again, Warriors has never had the problem of finding ways to score (and let the other team score as well).
Thing here is that like what SkilzPaysDBillz said:
Warriors are like doughnuts in the middle, they got holes, were the likes of Nene', KMart, the Birdman and Melo might have a field day all day.
I think they all would have a field day against the Warriors en route to an easy victory. I dropped the OVER play since the Nuggets has played a slower tempo on the road than they do at home plus the Warriors will have less scoring option (Maggette > Watson/Morrow all day).
NUGGETS -6
BOL
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