Conference play for College Basketball just began and were approaching the All-Star break for NBA. I've been posting my plays on Twitter for the past season, but have decided my widen my exposure after taking a year off from SBR. I do alot of my handicapping based on situational handicapping, reading the market, and stuffing a few key stats together. Remember, Professional bettors bet numbers; recreational bettors bet teams. While considering that proverb, don't forget that great money management is as important as your ability to pick winners for long term success in sports betting.
I'll be posting my basketball picks here for the rest of the season, all before game time unlike half this forum for transparency reasons. I'm also tracked by a 3rd party but I'm quite sure links are not allowed.
Hey pal, good luck! its tough! I too notice a lot of guys either posting one offs or claiming random wins here and there. So it goes I guess. I have a full transparency thread myself, been a terrible start but Im clawing my way back. Best of luck to you and hope you can stick with it thru the ups and downs!
We have a full board in the NBA tonight, with ten games and some very misleading lines.
#1) The Boston Celtics -4
This line is awfully low, with movement in favor of the Mavericks from 5.5 to 4.0 with the news Irving is OUT. We must consider that Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, yet 3-8 SU in their last 11 games, in which they scored more than 101 points in each of those games. The Celtics OVER is 7-0 in their last 7 games, who just started a 4 game home stand while the Mavericks are on their 2nd game of a 4-game road stand. My favorite situational trend that's active tonight is the Celtics are 9-0 ATS at home with less than 2 days of rest coming off a 10+ point win since last season. Must note: The Mavericks are 1-3 SU over the last year coming off an Away Win when scoring 110+ points and playing on the road again. I expect Marcus Smart to play tonight, therefore expect the Celtics to easily cover the 4 points.
Celtics -4
#2) The Wizards are having a truly funny season, quite disappointing to say the least. Posting an 3-11 ATS record in their last 14 games, but entering tonight with an awfully low spread. Though the Dragic has been out for some time and Wade hasn't been on the floor in the past few games, a 6 point home favorite spread in still two-three points too low. The Wizards are 0-15 ATS this season after allowing 50+ points in the paint in their previous game. The Heat are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games, while scoring 104+ points or more in their previous 5 games, while the Wizards have only gone over that number twice in their previous five games. Expect the Heat to continue their surge tonight
Heat -3 -110 1H
Heat -6 -110
#3) A very misleading line between the Pacers at Bulls game tonight. The Pacers are only a -6 point road favorite tonight, but what most don't know is that the Pacers are 5-0 in their previous 5 games with an +15.4 point margin in those games. While the margin between the Pacers and Bulls in both teams last five games is an outstanding 21.8 points. Insane. Though the line isn't moving with 80% of the action on Indiana, which is suspicious in my opinion; but with the way Indiana is playing basketball lately...I'm taking the risk.
Pacers -1.5 -110 1Q
Pacers -6 -110
Also must note:
-- The Bucks are 17-0-1 OU as a 8+ point favorite when they won 2+ straight meetings vs the current opponent
-- The Nets are 0-12 OU as a dog coming off a win in which they shot over 50% from the field
-- The Knicks are 0-6 L6 ATS, Minnesota Over is 8-0 L8
Awfully interesting Pacers/Bulls game last night, as expected as I knew we were taking the risk. Even more interesting was how exact the line was on the Miami Heat game as both our bets on the game resulted in a PUSH. Halftime score was exactly three, as the final score was exactly 6 points apart. Unfortunately, we took a loss last night but it could have been much worse.
1-2-2 -1.20u
Saturday, is a big day for all you football fans...but we cannot simply invest all of our time into one football game as each sporting event pays the same. Just because it's the playoffs doesn't mean you need to lay the house on it. Have control, and sick to your money strategy.
#1) Last night we went against the Mavericks and won as Dirk went scoreless in his last game in the TD Garden. I'm quite sure he won't be a factor in tonight's game, as well as Jimmy Trouble Butler as questionable with an illness. Not too sure of his status at the time, but I'm in love with points they're giving Dallas tonight. Ontop of the Mavericks being 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, they're also 15-0 ATS as a DOG off a double digit loss since last season. I seriously consider the Mavericks to be able to hang within 7 points of the 76ers due to both teams being within a percentage point in the rebounding category. I'm also considering the 76ers recent defensive play as they've allowed 117+ points to their opp in their last five games, when the Mavericks are allowing 107 points on average in their last five. Don't expect the Mavericks to win this one, as they are only 3-17 SU on the road this season; but the seven points is too good to pass up
Mavericks +7.5 -110
#2) Oh my! Check out this difference: The Pelicans are averaging 58 points at half time over their last five games, while the Cavaliers are only averaging 45.4 points at halftime over the same span. That's a difference of 12.6 points, which is the biggest of any teams in the league right now for half time average over the last five games. Were going to stay away from the full game spread here as the Cavaliers have lost their last two games by 25+ points, and we all know how tricky the NBA can be - this is a classic spot for the Cavs to cover the spread at home here tonight. Consider the Pelicans are also 0-12 ATS off a road game where they allowed 50+ points in the paint in their previous game, dating back to the start of the season. Though, the halftime spread is right where we want it; -5.5
Pelicans -5.5 -110 1H
#3) Warriors/Kings spread is set at 7.5 / 8.0 and it's dead on the money. I see this game landing one point on either side, so it's best to stay away as both teams allow the same points on defense vs divisional opponents this season. Hell, over the last five games the Kings are averaging 2 more points that the Warriors are by halftime. I understand the Warriors are the Warriors and tonight will be a different game, but the Kings have scored 108+ points in their last 13 games expect 1 time (102). Tonight will be a surprising challenge for the Warriors and before we try to pick a side; consider that the Warriors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games...While the Kings are 0-5 ATS L5 and 2-7 ATS L9. My play tonight focusing on the 1st Q where the Warriors have had success leading the 1st Q in Sacramento over the last two seasons
Warriors -2.5 -115 1Q
Must note;
-- The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meeting AT Detroit. The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings as well.
-- The Raptors are 16-0 on the UNDER as a road favorite with rest off a road game when they are facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds since 2016.
Got ourselves back on track yesterday, posting a perfect 3-0 sweep. Called the Mavericks game to the T, dropping their Away Record to an outstanding 3-18 SU on the road, yet staying inside the 7.5 spread. That brings our record to:
4-2-2 +1.80u
#1) Another value spot here with the Miami Heat being on the road against a poor team. Both teams play competitive ball vs each other, and looking at the Heat's road splits vs the Hawks home splits its honestly right down the middle. The Hawks have been rebounding much better than the Heat have over both teams last five games, though the Hawks have allowed more points at halftime over the last five games. But looking at the previous matchups being played in Atlanta; the Hawks have won the 1st half two out of three times in the previous three matchups. Last five games halftime score; Heat: 57.4 Hawks: 56.8
Hawks +3.5 -110 1H
Must note:
-- The Pacers are 0-13 ATS on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite in which there were eight-plus lead changes and it is before the All-Star break since 2015
Active Situation on Charlotte: 106-74-3 58.9% PLAY UNDER: Teams that scored more points than expected last game after scoring at least 25 points less than expected two games ago.
No time for write ups, if you can cap the market and smell public perception then you don’t need to fully research games every day. With that said; here are tonight’s picks
5-2-2 +2.80
Knicks +8.5 -110
Washington +2 -110
Bulls +8.5 -105 1H
Jazz +4.5 -110 1H
Must Note;
— 76ers 12-0 ATS off a road game in which they committed 20+ turnovers
— Bulls are 0-13 on the UNDER as a rested dog off a road loss when they are seeking same season revenge for a home loss
— The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS off a game as a dog in which Wiggins was their high scorer by double digits
Let's get back into action and focus a bit tonight. Saturday night NBA
The public idea is to take the Heat tonight considering the Grizzles are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games. Ontop of the Heat outscoring them on average in their last 5 games by 11 points. Heat are playing good ball, but with Whiteside out tonight and the Grizzles on road average points this season vs the Heat Home average only being within 5.5 points; Memphis with the surprising low dog line is out play tonight
Memphis +1.5 -110 1Q
Memphis +150 (Moved from +185 to +150 this afternoon; lots a love)
We focused in on the first game on the board between the 76ers at Knicks and found a whole list of injuries between both teams. Beside that, and considering whose out this afternoon: the 76ers are in a situation they’ve only been in twice this year. That’s coming off back to back losses; and in the previous two situations they were in they responded with a win in both games. I expect that again, especially with New York’s big man out. I will take horrendous basketball play vs a team whose out-scoring them by 14pts by average over the last 5 games any day.
Thanks Hman, just getting back to it after an 2-0 afternoon picking up 2.00 units. Excited for tonight, along with these NFL Playoffs.
10-5-2 +3.60u
The Nuggets are 10-1 SU this season when coming off an Away game and playing at Home. They’ve been a favorite in each of these 11 situations and have won by an average of 14 points. Portland has been playing hot basketball in their recent 4-5 games which have all been at home, hit the road here and try to get a tough win as five point dogs. I’m taking the easy route
Nuggets -205 (2.05 to win 1)
Also adding:
Bucks -3 -110 1Q
Last edited by FlyinAir; 01-13-19 at 01:47 PM.
Reason: Spelling
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