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Golden State -1 Tonight....
Well, hopefully we can escape tonight without any late injury scratches. That is step 1 tonight. So, let's assume we get past that, I'm looking out West again for tonight's pick, and it resides in California. Maybe going further West than Utah will be the key to getting a good win here. The 6ers travel to ORACLE Arena tonight to take on the Golden State Warriors. Both of these teams are having quite a debacle of a couple seasons here. The 6ers, short of being in full rebuild mode, are in complete dissaray. While they do have some functional parts in place, a last ditch effort to sell tickets by signing Iverson hasn't gone as well as they thought. Mostly because, well, there is no Iverson. While he isn't a huge part of this team, or couldn't be a "huge" part of this team at his age, he's still a scoring threat who could put in a solid 15 ppg for a team. Anyway, enough about who isn't a part of this game, let's get to the goods here.
I always check into the Sagarin rankings for great info on teams in a match up before I make a pick, so, let's take a quick peak. These teams are similar in rank, at 22 and 25 respectively. They both are awful against top 10 NBA teams, as to be expected. What's even one further though, is that they are both awful against top 16 teams as well. The 76ers are 3-13, while the Warriors are 4-18 against the top 10, while against the top 16, they stack up like this: 7-20 for the 6ers, and 5-26 for the Warriors. Not much to write home about in either case, but there is something of note here...the Warriors have played 6 more games against the top 10 of the league, while they have then played 4 more than the 6ers of the top 16. Surely, that has to do with the Warriors being in the Western Conference. However, that also does better prepare them for lesser opponents.
The next area to look into is strength of schedule. This is certainly the biggest difference in these team's stats. The Warriors are a shocking 6th in the NBA in terms of SOS, while the 6ers are 29th. That is quite a big difference in the competition these teams have played. I think this sets up the Warriors quite well in games against lesser opponents. However, while that sounds good on paper, it isn't necessarily true based on numbers. Do a little math, and based on their records against top 16, you can see that against teams ranked 17th or lower, the Warriors are 11-13, while the 6ers are 14-14. However, I don't think that tells the whole story. I think you also have to consider the difference between the Eastern and Western Conference. If you consider that while the 76ers are playing the Knicks, Pistons, and Pacers, the Warriors are playing against the Kings, Clippers, and Memphis...I'd still say the Warriors record of 11-13 is probably a little better than the 76ers record of 14-14.
So, what's left? Well, we have home and away records, recent games, and injuries. The 76ers are a consistent team in general, they stink both home and away. While the Warriors, well, they do also, but at home they are clearly a better team than on the road. After beating the Hawks on Sunday at the ORACLE, the Warriors are now home to the 76ers...they are 4-23 away from the ORACLE, while they are 12-16 at home, against Philly's 11-17 road record. Recent trends also indicate the Warriors should win this one. They have won 2 of their last 3 overall, and 4 of their last 5 home games. While the Sixers have lost 3 of 4, and just lost to the Bulls by 32 crowd pleasing points. Lastly, injuries. Maggette is questionable for tonight, with the odds saying he will be out...but he was out against the Hawks as well, not only did they win that game, but Ellis and Curry put up 58 combined points to pick up the slack. If a player has to be out, I'm not sad that Curry and Ellis get to take more shots for him. Overall, I see the Warriors winning another one here, and making it 5 of 6 at home.
My Pick: Warriors at home tonight -1 vs 76ers.
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Originally Posted by infamousbacardi
