This week's events have made the idea of the Knicks signing two max free agents this summer seem far more realistic. First, New York created enough cap space to do so by dealing Kristaps Porzingis to the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday while also shedding the salaries of guards Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee.
On the heels of that move, Kyrie Irving walked back his preseason commitmentto re-sign with the Boston Celtics, opening the door to him potentially joining Durant -- also an unrestricted free agent this summer -- in New York.
So just what would a Knicks team built around Durant and Irving look like? Could it include Anthony Davis too? Let's take a look at the dream scenarios for a Knicks superteam.
Question 1: How much cap space will New York have?
The answer is enough to sign both Durant and Irving, undoubtedly, though there are some variables to consider. The Knicks have just $15.3 million in 2019-20 salary committed at this point to four players: guards Frank Ntilikinaand Dennis Smith Jr., forward Kevin Knox and center Mitchell Robinson. Add in minimum-salary cap holds to fill out the roster plus the remaining money owed to Joakim Noah and New York could in theory create an unprecedented $80.1 million in room under a projected $109 million salary cap.
This week's events have made the idea of the Knicks signing two max free agents this summer seem far more realistic. First, New York created enough cap space to do so by dealing Kristaps Porzingis to the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday while also shedding the salaries of guards Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee.
On the heels of that move, Kyrie Irving walked back his preseason commitmentto re-sign with the Boston Celtics, opening the door to him potentially joining Durant -- also an unrestricted free agent this summer -- in New York.
So just what would a Knicks team built around Durant and Irving look like? Could it include Anthony Davis too? Let's take a look at the dream scenarios for a Knicks superteam.
In practice, the Knicks won't need or want that much cap space, which would require declining their team option for guard Allonzo Trier, waiving guard Damyean Dotson and forward Lance Thomas (whose salaries are non-guaranteed), renouncing the rights to all of their free agents and trading this year's first-round pick.
The projected number New York needs to get to is $70.85 million, which is required to sign a player with 10-plus years of experience (Durant) and a player with 7-9 years of experience (Irving) both to maximum contracts if the cap indeed comes in at $109 million. That would allow the Knicks to keep their pick, and where that falls will determine whether they can also keep Dotson, Trier and small cap holds for big men Luke Kornet (restricted) and Noah Vonleh (unrestricted).
Question 2: Where will New York's pick fall?
Besides affecting the team's cap space, the results of the lottery also will determine how potent a rookie the Knicks could add to a Durant-Irving core. All year long, visions of Duke star Zion Williamson playing at Madison Square Garden have danced through fans' heads. Williamson would be a worthy part of a superteam, and is the top pick best equipped to help New York win immediately as the NCAA's leader in Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric.
Naturally, Williamson comfortably leads all collegiate players in my draft projections, which incorporate where a player sits in ESPN's top 100 rankings. Unfortunately for the Knicks, the No. 2 prospect is Murray State point guard Ja Morant, a talented player who wouldn't be a good long-term fit for a team with Irving. So while I don't buy the narrative that this is a one-player draft, particularly as a rationale for devaluing picks besides the No. 1 overall selection, that might be the case from the standpoint of New York adding someone who can really help win next year.
With this year's new lottery odds, the best a team can do is a 14 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. To even get that, the Knicks would have to finish with a bottom-three record -- no certainty even as they currently sit last in the league. Three other teams (the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns) are within two wins of New York. Additionally, the lottery changes mean the team with the worst record is guaranteed no better than the No. 5 pick, a spot later than before. As a result, projections based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index show the No. 4 pick as the average outcome for New York and the No. 5 or No. 6 picks as most likely.
Question 3: Could the Knicks trade for Anthony Davis too?
Hypothetically, yes. New York's path to three superstar players would require signing Durant and Irving first to exhaust the team's cap space, then trading just about everything else to the New Orleans Pelicans to match Davis' $27.1 million salary. The Knicks would have to send back $21.6 million in salary, and as noted earlier that's more than all their currently guaranteed 2019-20 contracts combined.
Realistically, this year's pick would have to be part of any Davis trade, and New York could use the same strategy as the Cleveland Cavaliers did with Andrew Wiggins in 2014 by signing the pick first and subsequently trading him 30 days later when his salary counts for matching purposes.
If the Knicks got the No. 5 pick (which carries a projected starting salary of $6.3 million), a package of the pick, Dotson, Knox, Ntilikina and Smith would just barely be enough to make a legal trade. It's possible an offer like that -- which might also include the future picks New York acquired in the Porzingis deal -- could interest the Pelicans if they don't want to trade Davis to the conference rival L.A. Lakers and the Celtics no longer bid as aggressively because of Irving's departure.
Question 4: How could the Knicks fill out the roster?
Setting aside the possibility of a Davis trade, let's imagine the more conventional scenario where New York signs Durant and Irving outright while retaining the young talent on the roster. That would give the Knicks a depth chart something like this:
PG: Irving/Smith SG: Ntilikina/Trier/Dotson SF: Knox PF: Durant C: Robinson/Kornet
New York's lottery pick also would be in the mix, but there's a glaring hole on the wing (or at power forward if Durant prefers to play the 3). The Knicks would then have only the room midlevel exception, projected at $4.8 million, to offer free agents more than the veterans minimum. New York probably would want to earmark that money for a veteran wing who could rebuild his value playing for a contender. Wesley Matthews, acquired in the Porzingis trade, could be a candidate for that spot if his market craters, with DeMarre Carroll a more realistic possibility.
The Knicks also could look to trade some of their young players for veterans who could help them win now. Smith, blocked on the depth chart by Irving's arrival, would be an obvious trade candidate -- particularly if he can improve his value with a strong finish to the season.
Barring a blockbuster trade or winning the lottery, I don't think New York would be a championship contender next season with Durant and Irving. Despite the fact that they might be the league's best duo depending where Davis goes, the Knicks would have an almost unprecedented drop-off from their best two players to their third-best. (It's unclear who that player would even be.)
The problem is New York's recent lottery picks have yet to produce returns on their potential. Though Ntilikina has impressed defensively, he doesn't contribute enough offense to stay on the court for a contending team. His .419 true shooting percentage this season is worst among players with at least 500 minutes of action, per Basketball-Reference.com, and nobody else is even close. The next-worst mark in this group is Jonathon Simmons' .445 true shooting.
With a .474 true shooting percentage, Knox hasn't been much more efficient as a rookie. That will surely improve, particularly if he's not asked to create as much of his own offense, but Knox's contributions elsewhere in the box score are also limited. His combined averages of 2.3 assists, blocks and steals per 36 minutes are third-lowest among players with at least 500 minutes this season, ahead of only Alfonzo McKinnie and Gerald Green. As a result, Knox ranks last among small forwards in ESPN's real plus-minus. (Ntilikina is second from the bottom at point guard.)
So while Durant and Irving would surely lift the Knicks back into the playoffs, to build a contending team New York will either have to get lucky in the lottery or convince another team to value Knox and Ntilikina as highly as they were selected.
Knicks need to get rid of that cliche in a suit that patrols the sidelines. "i believe in this kid", "i'm going to demand he play hard on both ends", "i'm going to give this kid a chance to make mistakes", "i'm going to nurture him and love him", all until the next project comes along and the wind changes..
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Can the Knicks build a Kyrie, KD, Anthony Davis superteam? 🏀
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