1. #1
    babaoriley
    babaoriley's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-06
    Posts: 2,316

    Prop Bet: GS & UT +15.5 3 Pointers Made

    Over 15.5 3's made by both teams combined at -140 is that rarity: a prop bet with value.

    Consider:
    In GS's last 5 games:
    12-31 Game 1 against Utah
    14-30 Game 6 against Dallas
    16-35 Game 5 against Dallas
    12-31 Game 4 against Dallas
    14-30 Game 3 against Dallas

    With Utah keeping the pace and getting some wide open looks in Game 1, a team that was not a 3-happy team in the regular season, turned into a capable outside shooting team in Game 1 against GS. Utah was 8-23 with Okur, Giricek and Williams combining to go 8-21.

    Granted, the major underlying assumption here is that GS will attempt at least 30 3's and shoot 33%, leaving 6 3's for Utah.
    I think the pace will allow a few 3's for Utah and GS will get theirs. Usually not one to play NBA playoff props, but I just dropped 2.5 units on this one.

  2. #2
    fearless
    fearless's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-14-06
    Posts: 4,950

    Excellent bet, congrats.

  3. #3
    sabe
    sabe's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-07
    Posts: 51
    Betpoints: 11

    Excellent analysis!

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