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The most amazing first round of NBA Playoff action in HISTORY will come to a close this weekend with FIVE dramatic Game Seven showdowns. Three of those are Saturday, a trio of finales we’ll discuss momentarily. We’ll be back with you Sunday to look at the other two (Brooklyn at Toronto, Dallas at San Antonio).
In today’s action, Indiana and Oklahoma City were staring elimination in the face back on Thursday Night, as superior seeds who HAD to win on the road to stay alive. Did they leave everything on the floor in that effort? The LA Clippers had a game-in-hand, knowing they could lose on the road and still clinch as a favorite. But, they’ve had so many distractions this week that they could be low on gas as well.
Let’s see how professional bettors (sharps) have been betting this Derby Day TRIFECTA since the lines first went up. We’ll take the games in tipoff order.
ATLANTA AT INDIANA: Indiana opened at -6, and was bet up to -6.5. We’ve told you often over the years in this feature that sharps bet favorites immediately if they prefer that side…knowing that the public almost always bets favorites closer to tipoff. But, sometimes an early move is simply “position-taking” in advance of public action. If sharps are absolutely convinced squares are going to like the favorite…they’ll lay the early number, but then come back over the top on the dog with the later number. Sources tell us that most of the move you see above involves that latter strategy. A handful of sharps did like Indiana at -6. But, most of that move is from position-takers planning to come back over the top on Atlanta +7 if the number gets that high. If not, they’ll accept +6.5.
The opening total of 186 has been bet down to 184.5. Old school sharps tend to be Unders from Game Five on in a series…and REALLY bet the Under in a Game Seven. Oddsmakers are aware of that, and dropped the opener from the last three numbers of 188, 186, and 189. So…there was a pre-opening adjustment from oddsmakers…but old-school sharps bet the Under anyway with both fists.
MEMPHIS AT OKLAHOMA CITY: Oklahoma City went up at -8. Then, it was announced that Zach Randolph would be suspended for Memphis because of a swing he took at a Thunder player back in Game Six. That lifted the line up to Oklahoma City -9. Sources tell us that was a case of sportsbooks adjusting to “news” rather than money. Oddsmakers believed squares would jump on OKC at -8 without Randolph. Sharps have been impressed with the Memphis defense in this series, and are looking to take the dog without Randolph at the best price they see. Maybe that will only be +9. Perhaps the public will push the number higher before tipoff and the Wise Guys will get +9.5 or +10.
The Over/Under has dropped from 185.5 to 184.5. Again, that’s a result of old-school money. And, it’s way below the totals we were seeing earlier in the series of 190 and 188. But, the loss of Randolph actually discouraged some Under bets. Memphis plays VERY slow when emphasizing Randolph in the offense. His absence may speed up proceedings. That kept this as only a 1-point move to the Under.
GOLDEN STATE AT LA CLIPPERS: Looks like we have a tug-of-war brewing between the LA Clippers -7 and Golden State +7.5. Sharps are taking the dog at +7.5. Squares (and a few sharps) are taking the Clippers at the seven. Because this is a late start, that dynamic could be in play all through the day.
We’ve had a huge drop on the total, from an opening line of 209.5 all the way down to 206.5 in some spots. Game Six only made it to 199…and this game could be played a similarly slow pace. Oddsmakers had adjusted pre-open from prior numbers around 210-211. Old school sharps came in yard. And, the math guys had only made it 208. So, a combination of factors are involved in this case.
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Originally Posted by lakerboy
Originally Posted by lakerboy 