Well, I am sticking to the totals since I have been having good results doing so.
Here tonight, I see another team total that seems wildy out of wack with Reality.
The Greek has the Pacers Team total at 113 for the game with the Warriors tonight, and I cant resist jumping all over this one. With the Warriors Defense not being that good, I will not call this play a lock, but it is screaming + EV and I think this play has a good 70% chance of cashing.
The Warriors are accustomed to giving up points, I cant deny that, but still the 113 is just way too high. This Pacers offense is exactly what Golden State needs. This Pacers team does not score much often at all.
The Pacers would have to score 114 points or more to make this play a loser, and guess what ? The Pacers have not scored 114 points or more all year long. In fact, The Pacers have scored 88 or less 3 times this year, they have also scored 95 points or less in half of their games. This Pacers team has only managed 103 points or more 4 times this year, and even that puts them 10 points short.
The Warriors defense, as bad as it is, is not that bad. The warriors have given up an average of 112 points this year. Of course, the majority of that is playing against much better offense like the Lakers, Mavericks, Suns, Spurs, Nuggets, etc. Just playing out West means you are going to give up some points asthere are a lot of high scoring teams out there.
Still, The Warriors Point against average falls below the 113 that The Pacers team total is tonight. And only 5 times this year have the Warriors given up 113 points. That is 5 out of 15 games or 33 % of the time. So even if I assumed the Pacers offense was the same as the Lakers, Suns, Nuggets offenses I would still have a 67% chance of winning this play.
The fact is that it is one thing to give up 130 points playing the Lakers as the warriors did Saturday, it is quite a different story to give up 114 to a very bad Pacers offense. In the Warriors last 5 outings, they have only given up 113 twice, that against the Lakers and Spurs. The warriors have only given up this many ploints 3 times in their last 10 games.
These 2 teams have played once already this year. The Pacers managed 108 points in that game, a game that pretty much everything went their way. yet, they still fell well short of the 113 points. In that game, they were playing in Indiana where tonights game is in California. Quite a distance for the Pacers to travel. I also dont expect the Pacers to get all the calls tonight.
In the previous meeting, The Pacers shot 36 Free throws. In fact, the Pacers made more free throws in that game then the Warriors attempted. The Pacers also shot 50% from behind the 3 point arc in that game, I highly doubt we will see them shoot better than 30% from 3 point range tonight.
Also, in the previous meeting, Danny Granger scored 31 points, tonight he is playing but he is day to day so he is less than 100% and I dont see him getting 31 again. Even with everything going the Pacers way last time, they only scored 108.
Here is a Pacers team that has some minor injuries, that only averages 98 points a game this year, that rarely breaks 100 points, that is traveling some 2000 miles for this game, that has to score 114 points to beat me.
Nice call lol... hook me up with one of these plays tomorrow, I need to get back on track since I had such a bad weekend... Went 3-1 today but still down massive amounts after that tool Anthony Redd fuked me out of like $5,000 on his supposed 100 Dime Game of the Century play which failed miserably
Thanks man. Dont understand how they can come out with Pacers team total of 113 when the Pacers average 98 and havent scored over 113 all year. Oh well, I like the easy ones.
I hear you PeePee. Had to wait until after work last night. Love the Wizards + 6 1/2 tonight, will post on that in about 30 minutes. Good luck with all your plays.
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ONE Play I LOVE --- INDIANA PACERS UNDER 113
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