So another grind of a month begins. Quite a few days left but I was a bit upset with the Hornets yesterday as they led the whole game but the 11 missed free throws and a last few minutes in the 4th caught up with them. A little angry as I missed a gimme w/the Knicks as I got on myself for not capping the entire card instead of stopping with the Hornets.
However, I Played one game for a reason yesterday as I knew today was going to be a heavy wager day as most wednesdays typically are with a large card. In fact, I cap imaginary lines 3 days in advance and just wait on the lines prior to and then make my selections from there.
A while back ago I made a comment that you had to have some faith in me that I was not crazy when I did something and I went 3-1. Well, today is another example. I am riding with 5 picks today, I've never done it, but at the same, I've never had 5 that all are significant as they are today. I think about everything over and over again before I actually do it and today is no different. Typically, I release 3 plays, today I am going wth 5 b/c I cannot get off any of these plays. I've tried over and over, but I cannot get off any of em' so I won't.
Besides, I've already capped Thurday and Friday and it's going to be a very light card for me until this weekend when I roll with 3 plays so it all evens out. Wagering is about making moves at the right times and tonight, I'm going to make a move b/c I like the card. Once in a while I'll do this, if I like the card very much and today is an example of that. Just thought I'd give that an explanation before I rolled with this today. One thing is for sure, I won't have time to see the results come back as I'll be in lab till 10pm, but it certainly is going to be a fun night.
Records:
(61%)SEP = 6 Units (Goal 5.5)=0.5 Banked for rainy month. = $1500 Profit
(64%)OCT = 7 Units(Goal 5.5) = 1.5 Banked for rainy month. = $1750 Profit
(64%)NOV =7 Units(Goal 5.5) = 1.5 Banked for rainy month. = $1750 Profit
(74%)DEC =16 Units(Goal 5.5 Units) = 10.5 Banked for rainy month = $4000 Profit
(59%)JAN = 5.5 Units (Goal 5.5 Units) = 0 Units Banked for Rainy Month = $1300 Profit.
Total Proift Thus Far: $10,300 in 5 Months after juice.
+14 Units Banked for Rainy Month
Lifetime Record: 645 Plays - 62%.
Monthly Goal: 5-6 Units.
Month Ends: March 9th
Goal: 60% or +$1250.
This Month: 3-3 (6-6 Units) (-Juice)
25 Days left in the Month.
Rainy Month Unit Fund: +14 Units Ahead of Yearly Pace.
Current: 5 Months of Profit = 41.5 Units.
Goal: 12 Months = 66 Units
Goal Each Month: $1250 Profit.
1 Unit = To Win $250 - All Profit after Juice
FEBRUARY 14TH TOP PLAYS:
DUQUESNE -1.5 (3 Units)
Are you serious? Let's start with the basics - Duquesne is 13-5 ATS.
Richmond has won this game in this series the past 10 years, which would explain in part for the line. In fact, that might be the only thing that explains the line.
I was on Duquesne a while back first and have been on them since as far as sides have been concerned. While they put up a storm of scoring, our Richmond friends put up a stellar 59 points and change a game in scoring.
These are 2 different quality of teams, plain and simple.
While the Dukes go on the road to defeat La Salle by 6, Richmond loses to La Salle by 23 on the road.
While the Dukes beat Dayton by 4 on the road, Richmond loses to Dayton by 18 on the road and fail to cover the 11.5 spread.
While the Dukes beat Temple by 4 at home with their new style of offense, Richmond loses by 21 at home.
The Dukes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and 10-1 ATS in their last 10 ballgames overall if you can believe it and not to mention 6-1 ATS in their last 7 ballgames within the Atlantic-10 which shows they are playing great conference ball.
This is still a conference game for the Dukes and for conference standing and they are trying to stop at least a 10 straight SU win streak for Richmond going into this game.
The Spiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-4 ATS in thier last 5 as an underdog.
Can you blame me for riding this pick and now wanting to go without it?
Dukies by 12.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC +14.5 (2.5 Units)
The line opened at 15 and quickly dropped down to 14.5 and I'm willing to bet that by gametime this will be around 14 and even 13.5 at some places.
Why?
Because Florida Altantic is very similar to the UL-Monroe team that went on the road to lose by 7 in a 13.5 spread. This spread is similar yet again at a 14.5 spread and I've already written in a previous write-up how Western Kentucky is completely getting the shaft since the beginning of the year.
If this line was anything in the double-digits, it was a 2 unit play but when I saw it at 14.5, I nearly had a semi-orgasm, so I made it into a 3 unit play at this line.
I know Florida Atlantic has a losing overall record at 12-14, but did you know they have won their last 4 of their last 6.
In fact, their results mimick that of UL-Monroe and that of Western Kentucky for that matter and there is not that much difference between these two teams besides perception.
Will Western Kentucky win? Yes. But barely jus tlike the UL-Monroe game.
Flatlantic beat Flint by 8 in their last game at home, WKy beat them by 12 at home as well.
Flatlantic lost to Arkansas State by 7 on the road, Western Kentucky lost by 1.
Flatlantic beat Ul-Monroe by 11 at home compared to Western Kentucky's 7 at home.
Flatlatnic beat Arkansas LR by 4 at home and beat LouLafayette by 3 at home whereas Western Kentucky lost to Arkansas LR by 2 on the road and 10 at home.
The reason why this is a 2.5 point play is because I can't explain a Denver game they played while back for Florida Atlantic as they lost by 5 on the road while Western Kentucky won by 10 on the road. However, since that game, this team has then gone on to win the 4 of their 6 and provide the stats I gave you above so I will take my chances.
This is a conference game and I don't see the Hilltoppers running away from it. There is strong trend evidence as well including the Owls are 4-0 ATS of late in conference play, the Hilltoppers are 0-8ATS after a Straight up win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 ball games overall.
Not a 3 unit play, but I do like this wager very much.
Now, do you see why I could not go without this play?
SETON HALL +10.5 (1.5 Units)
I don't know why anyone would put money on Uconn. This team is young, overrated and mistake-prone more than any other team in the Big East at times.
Why should Uconn gives this many points to anyone? You can tell the linesman adjusted the lines b/c for Rutgers the line was easy 16.5 and for this game they knocked it down 5 points.
Guess what?
I'm still fading Uconn.
Take out the 11 point win against Rutgers as that was in OT and complete bs how they went to the line for 11 free throws and therefore that margin of victory is skewed.
Seton Hall is every bit as good as Rutgers and in my book they are the same although in the pr rankings they are about 40 spots higher.
Nonetheless, I would have liked a 14.5 line but hey, anything in the double-digits was getting a play of 2.5 units from me.
I"ve already asked you to take out the 11 point victory over Rutgers in OT as that is an exception and highly unlikely to occur again. Uconn has not beaten any conference opponent this year by that margin - what makes you think they will beat the Hall by that margin?
Uconn is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 in the Big East, 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 7 to 12 points at home and 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record - which means they are not covering the big home spreads when expected to. Seton hall doesn't have trends favoring them, but at the same time, this is a fade on Uconn similar to the Rutgers game.
If the Hall can beat Providence and lose to NDame by 12 on the road, I think they can lose to Uconn by 8 on the road.
Uconn by 6-8 points.
Do you blame for me this pick and now wanting to let go of it?
MANHATTAN +10 (1.5 Units)
This to me is very similar to the Seton Hall game as Marist does not deserve this much respect given the results of these teams and I'm all about the revenge factor, but 10 points is a bit too much and you saw what happened to Va tech vs. UNC - revenge is not always exacted on a team - even when they are as good as UNC they don't exact it.
Marist has been getting the complete shaft of late going 1-7 ATS in their last 8 ballgames from the oddsmakers while Manhattan has been a road warrior of a cover at 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games and 7-2 ATS in the head to head meetings between these two teams.
Manhattan has covered 3 out 4 of these series and including the 1 point win by a score of 75-74 back on January 30th.
Sure, that loss is fresh on Marists's mind but at the same time, Manhattan's back to back losses are fresh on their minds.
They lost by a bucket to a good playing Niagara team (who won another Maac game by beating Canisius yesterday) and 7 points to Rider on the road, who Marist lost to by 8 but beat Rider by 1 point on the road.
In fact, those are not the only two identical score differentials these two teams have:
Manhattan beats St. Pete by 7 at home, Marist by 9 at home.
Manhattan loses to Canisius by 3 at home, St Pete by 10 on the road.
Manhattan beats Loyola-MD by a bucket on the road, Marist by 5 at home.
Manhattan gets downed in this game but by 4-6 pionts in my book as theie free throw shooting is suspect at times, but I've got to ride them here with double-digits - as that is tough to give up on.
Since January 2nd, Manhattan has not lost 3 ballgames in a row and that was before conference play so I although I think they will drop their 3rd conference game in a row tonight, they will attempt not to and will fall just short but within 10. I have the Jaspers losing by 6.
Now do you see why I could not let go of this pick?
RICE +7.5 (1.5 Units)
I was hoping this line would rise, but I don't believe it will and I am going to take a half a point on it as well for insurance. Hell, I've got a total of 5 wagers today, why not take .5 point here as Thursday's/Friday's Card will be light on my end especially if today is a strong day.
Rice can go toe to toe with UAB and I have them falling short by a bucket, just a bucket and I can't get off this team either. I have capped it every which way and how can I not take these points with a team that is 13-10 and in fact ahead of UAB in the conference standings.
Why the line? Public perception.
Rice went on the road to beat SMU by 3 recently, the same team that UAB lost by 4 to at home.
Rice beat East Carolina by 11 at home while UAB defeated them by 16 at home.
Rice defeated Utep by 6 at home while UAB lost to them by 13 on the road.
However, Rice lost handily to Tulane by 20 on the road while UAB defeated them by 7 which eplains the 1.5 unit of the play.
However, Rice also beat Southern Miss by 15 at home while UAB lost to Southern Miss in overtime.
What does all this mean?
None of these teams can be trusted especially with a spread of 7 and 7.5 with a hook in my book as all of their offenses simply blow.
Rice is averaging a full 5 points higher and shoots 71% from the line which is around the top 90 in the nation while UAB shoots at a 61% clip which is 324th in the nation. This game will come down to free throws and will be an ugly game but I think Rice goes down by a bucket by around 54-52 but who knows they could pull the outright win.
Look for Almond to have a huge game for Rice as he typically does.
The Owls are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 24-8-2 in their last 34 conference USA Games.
UAB is 2-5 ATS of late and 2-5 ATS in the conference-usa of late while 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games agains team with a losing road record.
Now do you see why I could not let go of this selection either?
Hey bud, I would first off like to welcome you to the forum... If you have posted a few times, I just must have missed em... It sounds like you do a SOLID job of capping games and it's a pleasure to have someone like yourself join the forum...
I'm definitely with you on Duquesne tonight... They have been playing pretty well as of late and I think the line is a little low in this one!
I look forward to reading many of your posts in the near future! Best of luck to you and again welcome!
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IC: 64% - 5 Months - February 14th Tops
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