[ChiTownEntourage]

$1,500 TO $50,000 IN 200 PLAYS

Let’s get this started by giving everybody a little background on the Chase system I use. Yes I said Chase system. I know there will be a lot of haters and people saying I won’t be able to do it, but I’ve been using this with great success since mid season last year. I created this system after having problems maintaining a bankroll even though I was winning consistently. I asked myself the question, how can I guarantee that I will stay positive and be able to cash out large amounts consistently? To me there is only one answer to this question. Chase your losses.

Say whatever you want about it, but its pure probability that with an endless bankroll and a Sportsbook that will always accept your wager you could always stay ahead chasing your losses. Ideal world I know. But still I thought I was on to something...so I whipped together an excel spreadsheet and started putting together a chase system. I didn’t like the John Morrison system because it locked you into picks, you had to buy points, and because you were only winning the first wager amount, even if you chase it down to the 3rd bet and win. So I created a system where you win the same amount each bet you make in a series...I will be attaching my spreadsheet for people to check out, but the percentages of my bankroll I bet during each series break down like this...
1st - 8.6%
2nd - 26.7%
3rd - 64.7%

After any winning bet I re-bank the winnings with my Active Bankroll and start back at my 1st bet, based off the percentages above. It takes me approximately 16 bets to triple any starting bankroll, assuming of course that at no time during those 16 bets I lost three in a row. When I triple up my bankroll, I start over again with an amount slightly higher than the last bankroll.

If and when I lose a series of 3 bets, I will re-bank for the same amount as I started with last series and 4x it, which takes approximately 20 bets. If I loss anymore than 1 series of three bets in a row, I will reevaluate things, but I will be trying at all costs to avoid that.

Assuming everything goes as planned I intend on going 10-3 to get through the 10 levels of chases, taking approximately 200 plays, which should take me up into playoffs.

I’ve learned a lot in my 2 years of wagering…by no means would I call myself an expert at this, but I do know I have found a way to win and win consistently. I make my plays based off of Stats/Trends, Situational plays and my perceptions of why the line was set where it was. I will be releasing my play and how much I'm playing it for each day after I play it myself.

That’s pretty much the gist. People got questions hit me up. Otherwise watch, follow or do whatever it is you do on here…PEACE!

[ChiTownEntourage]

My first play is...

$64.60 on Portland -8.5

[ChiTownEntourage]

NBA Chase 2009.xls
Here is the spreadsheet. If things arent working or you have questions, please let me know

[williams22]

Interesting...I will certainly keep an eye on this. Good luck!

[ChiTownEntourage]

We start it out with a winner!!!

1-0

Total Bankroll $1558.73

[ChiTownEntourage]

Just to clarify...Right now I am basing my percentages off of 1/2 of $1500, so $750. After this win it brings the current active bankroll to $808.73.

[BrandonLaz]

I don't get your initial wager based on your chase method. 8.6% of 1500 would have actually been $129. Why did you only wager $64.60

[BrandonLaz]

nevermind I posted that before your last statement

[ChiTownEntourage]

Sorry guys for being so last minute on this play, but i saw it late.

1st Bet

Spurs -3 1st Quarter

$69.66

[whatsgood5]

Sorry guys for being so last minute on this play, but i saw it late. 1st Bet Spurs -3 1st Quarter $69.66

This'll be interesting to watch, I like your strategy too, good luck.

[ChiTownEntourage]

Spurs win 1st quarter 19-13...thats a WIN!!!

2-0

Active Bankroll - $872.06

Total Bankroll - $1,622.06

[ChiTownEntourage]

Allright I'm going with another pick tonight...

1st bet again since I won the last bet

Clippers +3

$75.11

Something seems off with this line considering Clippers on a B2B and public should be loving Phoenix in this spot...I GOTTA FADE THAT!

[ChiTownEntourage]

Also unless I otherwise stated, please assume -110 odds

[ChiTownEntourage]

Clippers lose 107-109, but thats still a cover for me!!!

3-0

Active Bankroll - $940.34

Total Bankroll - $1,690.34

[ChiTownEntourage]

No play today. My leans are Chicago +2.5 and Portland -8, but won't play either. But I'll be at the bulls home opener tonight, so go Chicago!!!!

[mdemps9190]

liking your thread, will definitely follow it as well and check how you do. good luck

[Chi_archie]

keep it up ChiTown


what part of chicago you in?

[ChiTownEntourage]

South loop chi_archie. I assume your in the chi as well? Where at?

[joanapoker]

pls, just for a deep understand, explain me the excel spreadsheet! First bet $861.33?? what is that? what bet? I feel stupid seeing your excel file......

[ChiTownEntourage]

My apologies for the first spreadsheet. First of all it was an .xslx, which I had to save as a .xls to upload, which caused a loss in much of the functionality. Secondly it basically does everything for me, all I need to do is enter my starting total bankroll into the Total Bankroll tab and track my picks...then the spreadsheet automatically determines my bet amounts, without me having to adjust my bankroll on the wager calculator tab. On the Wager Calculator tab there is a bankroll override that if it has a value other than 0 in, it will calculate the bets based of that amount...I believe when I uploaded the file, the bankroll override was set to 10,000, which is why the first bet would be $861.33.

I am attaching a very scaled down version of the spreadsheet. This one will be very easy for me to explain...There are two tabs; Wager Calculator and Forecasting.
ChiTownChase.xls

Wager Calculator
In cell B10 put the bankroll you want to play with and it will calculate the series of three bets. If you play the first bet and it losses then you bet the amount displayed for the 2nd bet, if that losses then you would bet the 3rd and final amount listed for the 3rd bet. After any win you take your bankroll and repopulate the value in B10.

Forecasting
Shows you after X amount of bets where you should approximately be at given your current bankroll entered in cell B10 of Wager Calculator.

Please let me know if your still confused?

[head]

How does your system work

[artist]

Keep me posted I might tail your pick hahah I wanna make 50k

[suicidekings]

So, in your initial series, your wagers would have been (based on the % you gave) approximately:

1) $64.50
2) $200.25
3) $485.25

Meaning that if you lose 3 in a row at any given time, you lose half of your total bankroll? And then you start with the other half? Or half of the remaining portion?

If you do a quick look at your odds of succeeding over a sample of 200 bets using Binomial probability, and assuming you have a win rate of 60% of your wagers (which is a very generous number that is pretty much unheard of over the long term, even by professional gamblers), your chances of losing any particular series of 3 games is about 6.4%. Over ~200 possible series (gm1-gm2-gm3, gm2-gm3-gm4, etc), you stand to lose 12-13 of them, which means that if the bets (& losses) were spread out evenly over the 6 month season, you're likely to lose one every 16 games or so.

Even one series loss will cut your roll in half, significantly reducing any profitability of the system. I'm not a hater, so don't feel that I'm attacking you, but before you get into chasing I would suggest you think hard about it. You're living dangerously.

Alternately, if you were to make 200 straight wagers at -110 odds and hit even a 55% win rate with a bet size of $50 (3.3%), you would approximately double your money over the season (BR = $2950).

$1,500 to $50,000 sounds glamorous, but if it was as easy as you say it is, it would have been done long before now.

[mikeveli20]

Edit: Post above pretty much said what I said

[artist]

I don't care just tell me your pick let's make 50k

[joanapoker]

ChiTown,

now I can understand the spreadsheet, thx!

But still you have to say that betting like that is a really dangerous. Imagine that u lose the 3 chase right on the first time...that's rought! what kind of back tests did you do?

[XGambler]

Interesting. I will be watching this thread.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

interesting thread

[ChiTownEntourage]

So, in your initial series, your wagers would have been (based on the % you gave) approximately:

1) $64.50
2) $200.25
3) $485.25

Meaning that if you lose 3 in a row at any given time, you lose half of your total bankroll? And then you start with the other half? Or half of the remaining portion?

If you do a quick look at your odds of succeeding over a sample of 200 bets using Binomial probability, and assuming you have a win rate of 60% of your wagers (which is a very generous number that is pretty much unheard of over the long term, even by professional gamblers), your chances of losing any particular series of 3 games is about 6.4%. Over ~200 possible series (gm1-gm2-gm3, gm2-gm3-gm4, etc), you stand to lose 12-13 of them, which means that if the bets (& losses) were spread out evenly over the 6 month season, you're likely to lose one every 16 games or so.

Even one series loss will cut your roll in half, significantly reducing any profitability of the system. I'm not a hater, so don't feel that I'm attacking you, but before you get into chasing I would suggest you think hard about it. You're living dangerously.

Alternately, if you were to make 200 straight wagers at -110 odds and hit even a 55% win rate with a bet size of $50 (3.3%), you would approximately double your money over the season (BR = $2950).

$1,500 to $50,000 sounds glamorous, but if it was as easy as you say it is, it would have been done long before now.

I appreciate your input. Like I mentioned in my first post, I created this system mid-season last year. Twice I took my chase 40+ plays before it came crashing down on me after losing three consecutive bets. The second time I started with $500 and when I lost the three bets my bankroll was over $6,000. That absolutely crushed me. At that point I stopped using the system for a few weeks and started betting straight. But without the system, I lacked discipline with my wagering and money management. I was losing more money betting straight than I was using my system. At some point I came to the realization that I can’t push my chases over a certain number of plays, because eventually the chase will lose. So I decided instead of chasing endlessly, I would chase to triple my starting amount and then start over. BAM!!! Finally I had success. Over the summer and into this fall I'm up $7,000 using this method. Yes I have had chase losses, but with each loss I have been able to win the starting bankroll back on the next chase.

Now for my chase for $50,000 I have tweaked the system once again. I will still always be chasing to triple my starting active bankroll, but I have set it up so that after every 3x, the active bankroll increases, but its % of the total bankroll decreases.

Here is a look at the how I intend to get to $50,000...

First Column = Total Bankroll
Second Column = Active Wagering Bankroll
Third Column = To win Amount
Fourth Column = Final Total Bankroll

1500 750 1500 3000
3000 1125 2250 5250
5250 1500 3000 8250
8250 1875 3750 12000
12000 2250 4500 16500
16500 2625 5250 21750
21750 3000 6000 27750
27750 3375 6750 34500
34500 3750 7500 45000
42000 4125 8250 50250

So while I am betting 50% of my Total Bankroll now, that percentage will be decreasing through each of the betting stages.

Yeah I could bet straight and be up a few thousand at season’s end, but honestly that’s a waste to me. While winning $1500 over a season might be enough for some people (I would have been in this boat a couple of years ago), it’s not for me. I have a good job and make a very decent income, so $1500 isn’t going to make any impact on how I live, but $50,000 will. I am fully aware of the risk I am taking in chasing and I think the outcome is well worth the risk. I guarantee even if by the end of the season I am not at $50,000, I will be well beyond the $2950 I would make betting straight in your given scenario.

[ChiTownEntourage]

Todays Play is...

1st bet

Utah -9

$80.99(-105)

[joanapoker]

gl tou you Chi, but will you chase even if you play 3 games in the same day?

[marabdl86]

Not liking that utah play Chi. LA Clippers are really underrated and dangerous. I was thinking of playing the clips at +9.5, but there's some other games that grabbed my attention

Raptors -2.5
Wizards +6.5
Mavericks +9
Suns/Warriors under 230

[ChiTownEntourage]

gl tou you Chi, but will you chase even if you play 3 games in the same day?

I'm looking at the big picture, so I will not be playing more than one game at a time. If I make two plays in a day, it would be an earlier game and then a later game after I know the outcome of the first. I will not take another side if I have already lost a game that day. The idea being that over three days I won't pick three consecutive losers.

[ChiTownEntourage]

Not liking that utah play Chi. LA Clippers are really underrated and dangerous. I was thinking of playing the clips at +9.5, but there's some other games that grabbed my attention

Raptors -2.5
Wizards +6.5
Mavericks +9
Suns/Warriors under 230

I'm well aware of the "New look Clippers", but I honestly think the clipps are far outmatched here. Playing their 3rd game in 4 days, going into Utah, who will be hungry to get their first win of the season in front of the home crowd on a Friday night home opener!

[scratbandit]

You know what go for it. You put more thought than 98% of the haters here. I like your style and I am up just falling you. lets go make some money.

kicking ass so far.