[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 4-1, +10.01u
(ATL, MIN, MEM, PHI, CHA)
YTD 176-304, +61.81u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 4-1, +2.95u
YTD 262-212 (.553), +39.40u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 DAL 66
2 HOU 64
3 PHX 64
4 CHI 60
5 NJ 59
6 IND 58
7 NOK 57
8 DET 55
9 SAN 55
10 MIA 54
11 NY 54
12 WAS 53
13 UTH 52
14 LAC 50
15 DEN 50
16 SAC 50
17 MIN 50
18 TOR 49
19 GS 49
20 POR 44
21 CHA 44
22 LAX 43
23 SEA 43
24 PHI 42
25 ATL 42
26 MEM 41
27 ORL 39
28 MIL 39
29 CLE 39
30 BOS 33

EDGAR LINES FOR 01.30.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

IND 6.4/238 over BOS

WAS 3.0/137 over DET

CLE 1.9/121 over GS

NY 6.1/219 over LAX

MIA 7.2/284 over MIL

DAL 5.9/210 over SEA


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

BOS +294, IND -196

DET +163, WAS -116

GS +144, CLE -102

LAX +269, NY -182

MIL +358, MIA -231

SEA +256, DAL -174


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

BOS +830, IND -107

DET +328, WAS +156

GS +278, CLE +178

LAX +699, NY +100

MIL +1280, MIA -123

SEA +642, DAL -104

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Tuesday.

GL

[bigboydan]

Interesting slate of games Tuesday I must say Jay.

[The HG]

Jay, just wondering about the Det/Wash game. Does your method take into account in any way the fact that Wash went into Det and beat them at home a few days ago? Or does that game count the same for Wash as any road win against a team of Det's caliber would count? And of course, vice versa concerning Det.

Revenge is one of those factors that is difficult to quantify in an overarching sense, but nevertheless a very real factor in certain games.

[bside]

Looks like two of the three indicated plays fall into the 20% off marker category: Sea +750, NY +145

[Jay Edgar]

Revenge is one of those factors that is difficult to quantify in an overarching sense, but nevertheless a very real factor in certain games.

Agree.

Right now the numbers are blind as to motivation for a particular game. (Although if a team has recently started mailing it in, the numbers should pick that up within a couple of games.)

It's one of those things that we just have to eyeball and weight subjectively. Not sure how to cure that without several hundred additional hours of inexact work.

(One good check on overweighting it would be to ask yourself -- OK, Team X will be on a mission tonight. Does that mean they are going to play as well as the #1 team in the league? The #7 team? And even if so, the adjustment shouldn't be so big that they are a bigger favorite than [that team] would be in this spot, with the same home/road rest/no rest factors.)

Last year when I first developed this method (or an earlier version of it), I used to comment often that I'd recommend only using it as a guide. Since the blind results this year have been a home run I don't say that so much anymore, but it's probably still true.

[Jay Edgar]

Looks like two of the three indicated plays fall into the 20% off marker category: Sea +750, NY +145

True.

Personally I usually play those, although often for a little less.

I don't know why the 20%+ plays underperform. As the lines tighten, I think -- or at least hope -- that this will become less and less the case. Because the underperformance bugs me. Part of that whole "I can't quantify my edge" problem.

[vuchuu]

Hi Jay,

I'm relatively new to sports betting and to this forum, but I just wanted to give you my public thanks and support for a method that has been working really great for me since I started using it about a month ago.

You are doing a really good job finding the edge, and it seems to be improving even though the lines at the bookmarkers improve as well.

About the 20% line I agree with you in that is kind of weird just to think that when your edge gets bigger you just lose money, but also as you said I think it is getting sharper.

I didn't really say anything interesting, but I wanted to give you my thanks in my first post!

[Jay Edgar]

Hi Jay,

Hola hermano, and thanks for the note.

[bigboydan]

Now that Kobe is out tonight Jay. Any change in the numbers?

[bside]

Just my .02 but I think it goes back to the linemakers inability to set appropriate lines when a team is likely to get blown out. They have set the spread high but only high enough to balance bets not necessarily high enough to compensate for the actual outcome of the game. Maybe to say it more clearly (or less), these tend to be games when really good teams are playing really bad teams. The bad teams are not hitting the ML enough times in this instance to make it profitable. At least thats what I've talked myself into.

[Jay Edgar]

I don't have a reliable mechanism to change the numbers for player injury/suspension, or for one-game motivation. That's a fact of life --as discussed above with Ganchrow -- that we have to adjust for the old-fashioned way, by feel.

Note though that the Knicks are an indicated play all the way up to -182. So I guess you get them at the best price you can.

(I got them +2.5 yesterday and was kicking myself when the 3s and 3.5s were out earlier today. Funny how things work out.)

Did the Sunday TV crew say anything at the time about possible suspension? Came out of the blue for me.

[Jay Edgar]

11 BOS WIN -100
13 NY WIN 100
23 SEA LOSS -100

=============================

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 1-2, -1.00u
(BOS, NY, SEA)
YTD 177-306, +60.81u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 2-1, +0.95u
YTD 264-213 (.553), +40.35u