Originally Posted by
RabidGolfer
Guys, the more I look at the Houston @ Denver game, the more I want to take the total under 217. It's a huge total because both teams have been running up the points at times, but check out these stats:
2012-2013
Houston's points per game this year against Denver = 91
Houston's points per game this year on the road = 101
Denver's points per game at home this year = 107
Denver's points per game this year vs Houston = 99
Based on this year's stats, both teams score considerably lower than their averages when playing each other. They've only been matched up twice this year, and both times were in Houston, so lets look at last year's numbers:
2011-2012
Houston's points per game against Denver = 98
Houston's points per game on the road = 96
Denver's points per game at home = 103
Denver's points per game vs Houston = 103
Looking at these numbers, it's hard for me to believe the total could exceed 217. Denver seems to hold Houston to a ppg average well below their overall average. It's a small sample size, but I think its enough for me to bet heavy on the under tonight. Especially considering both teams have been increasing their defensive efforts.
While I was writing this, the doggone line moved a point, so I'm going to throw caution to the wind and drop 75% of my bankroll on this one.
RABID PICK OF THE DAY Houston @ Denver under 216
I'm going big on this one boys. Play at your own risk! Good luck!