Back to capping the NBA. Here is my one pick of the night. As always,
IMPORTANT: THESE WRITE-UPS DO NOT FACTOR IN ANY ROSTER CHANGES! (This preface will be copy pasted into all my future threads).
Here are my previous write-ups:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/2085382-write-ups-early-games-tonight.html
Write-ups for today's games
NBL game this morning
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...p-tonight.html
When I crunched the numbers I arrived at Washington -21 tonight, and even though I always trust my numbers, even i think that is a little rich. So for tonight:
1/1/2013
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Los Angeles Clippers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 110.25
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 104.5
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 105.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only played once this season (112)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 41.25
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 11.5
7.) Avg free throw % last for games: 65.2
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 12.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 96.75
Denver Nuggets:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 101
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 92.75
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 111.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only one meeting this season (100)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 47.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 14
7.) Avg free throw % last for games: 66
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 15.25
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 98
The Clippers win in 5 out of 9 categories so they should win straight up. For the clippers the number is 13.5 (110.25 – 96.75), the nuggets number is 3 (101 – 98). My raw spread has Clippers favored by 10.5. For the pad the Nuggets have more rest and home court so let’s give them two points. My spread has Clippers -8.5 and 5Dimes has it at Nuggets -1. I have rarely seen a b-ball games end with a 1 point difference, but taking Clippers and the points would be the most conservative play. 5Dimes reduced lines has Clippers +1 at -103, and Clippers ML at +102. My “one pick of the day” is Clippers +1, but for me personally I am taking Clippers ML.
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