[thorny]

NBA Wednesday

Washington @ Philly
2* Wizards -2 1st Half (-105/$1.95 Pinnacle) - *Almost an auto-play for me

Well picked Sando!

[davopnz]

I'm liking the over in OKC, any thoughts?

[davopnz]

can't believe that bobcats game didn't go over, 106 points at half time

[thorny]

can't believe that bobcats game didn't go over, 106 points at half time

yeh crazy, i stopped watching at half time and came back and thought wtf...

[rentongfb]

Great job tonight, Congrats...

[sando]

can't believe that bobcats game didn't go over, 106 points at half time

It's typical of how my totals have gone this season so far.

I mean I've been doing this for 19 years, so i feel like I've probably seen almost every type of swing and variance and good/bad luck you can imagine, but this is just rediculous.

Totals are my fukcing strength in NBA for gods sake, and I just keep getting fukced.

Every single piece of information i had available said that this was the strongest total play on the board, but no...

[bmoney76]

26 seconds left.. down by 2. And the Raptors don't foul. Wtf. What kind of analytics tell you that fouling is NOT a good idea there??

[micase]

Pelicans also having a good crack at squandering a 29 point lead.

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

1* OKC -2 2nd Half (-107 Pinnacle)

[selte]

By following your original plays today I went +4.45 units (got lucky with my bookie's 76ers teamtotal at 102)... Thank you so much!!

[JM92]

Had the Cavs won or the over hit, and this would've been my most profitable night ever. Thanks Sando!

[sando]

By following your original plays today I went +4.45 units (got lucky with my bookie's 76ers teamtotal at 102)... Thank you so much!!

Yeah it was 102, however as I was stuffing around posting my plays and making wagers the line moved to 101.5, so as always I posted it at the available line (at the time of posting). Lose by the hook, not a big surprise considering how bad I've been running with my totals so far this season.

Having said all that, I am back into the black now for the season by +2 or +4 units (depending of if the OKC 2nd half play hits). Not a bad turn around considering 5 days ago I was down 9 units to start the season...

[t-wizzle]

[Jago2008]

Tonight was an "Energie" moment :

[Cobra Kai]

Can't keep a good man down, great work Sando! My most profitable day thanks to yourself and Oz's football thread.

[mcmc]

Sando=Robinhood


U da man!

[sando]

NBA Tuesday

2-4 -1.85 units

ATS 1-1
Total's 1-2
2nd Half Plays 0-1

NBA Wednesday

9-5 +5.59 Units (Today)

ATS/ML 6-3
Total's 0-1
1st Half Plays 2-0
2nd Half Plays 1-0
Team Total's 0-1

_________________________
2013/14 NBA Season
31-26 +4.53 units

ATS/ML 15-13
Totals 2-7
1st Half Plays 3-0
2nd Half Plays (live) 9-3
Props 1-1
Team Total's 0-2
1st Quarter's 1-0
_________________________
2012/13 NBA Season
290--246--17 +51.47 units
_________________________

[ohdecas]

Yesterday I talied you on 3 NBA picks, 3 picks that won.. I thank you for your work

[sando]

Rugby League World Cup back on tonight boys.

7-3 +7.38 units for the tournament so far.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...l#post20168786

[sando]

NBA Thursday

First Big play of the season...

Lakers @ Rockets
3* Rockets -13 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)

*-13 won't last, will probably be -14 by game time

*Will add some analysis in 10-12 hours from now.

[davopnz]

thoughts on the over in the rockets game sando? i really like it, seems like a lot of people are scared of the high line but i can see there being 250 in this

[MrXYZ]

Congrats on the comeback Sando. Also thanks, I tailed everything today & made close to $350!

I'm on the USA +8.0 in RWC but hope we both cash.

[sando]

I made a mistake yesterday and forgot to withdraw the -1.85 units from Tuesday. So actual season tally has been adjusted below.

NBA Tuesday

2-4 -1.85 units

_________________________
2013/14 NBA Season
33-30 +2.68 units

ATS/ML 16-14
Totals 3-9
1st Half Plays 3-0
2nd Half Plays (live) 9-4
Props 1-1
Team Total's 0-2
1st Quarter's 1-0

[BlueCityy]

hey Sando, been following u for a while now, just wanted to say thank you for all these picks, gl this season!

[sando]

Adding NBA Props...

D12 Special

1.5* Howard Over 17.5 points (-130/$1.77 Sportsbet/IAS)
(Over 18.5 -115 Luxbet or Over 16.5 -150 Bet365)

Coming off his best game of the season. Sure looked healthy to me, putting up 29/13 on 76% (and an amazing 75% FT's). More importantly if any NBA fan who has been living under a rock and isn't aware of the circus that is Howard's daily life, well I can assure you that he has had this game circled since the moment he first saw this season's roster. Neither Pau nor Kaman likely to offer significant resistance in the low post. The exact sort of game that an immature attention seeker like Howard would call a statement game!

[JM92]

I want to play his over on bet365 but damn is that thing juicy on a bad way.

[davopnz]

Sando you see my post about the total? I'm still loving the over

[sando]

Sando you see my post about the total? I'm still loving the over

I have a total of 216-218, so I think there is zero value in this total. I do think it will go one of two ways however. Either a game that pretty much keeps pace with the total and falls just under or just over the 217.5, or a game that features a 60 and also a 70 point quarter and ends up blowing the total out of the water (128-108)?

Working on possibly one more play - still deciding whether to pull the trigger?

[davopnz]

I reckon they will blow the total out, I think the rockets can get 130 and the lakers can definitely get 100, have you seen the video of Harden's defense the other day? the dude doesn't give a damn, this will be an exhibition

[sando]

NBA Thursday


Lakers @ Rockets
3* Rockets -13 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)

1.5* Howard Over 17.5 points (-130/$1.77 Sportsbet/IAS)
(Over 18.5 -115 Luxbet or Over 16.5 -150 Bet365)

LA Clippers @ Miami
1.5* Under 207 (-108/$1.92 Luxbet)
(Predicted game total of 202-204)


I'll see if I can find the time to bang out a write up for Houston play.

[MrXYZ]

On it for 1x. Heads up for Aussie punters: Centrebet & TAB still at 207.5 & Sportsbet 208 for Clips/Heat total.

Good luck today.

[sando]

All stats and trends (albeit from limited information) point towards a high scoring game. In a high scoring game the Lakers will get buried, they simply cannot keep pace with the Rockets for 48 minutes. The problem is under D'antoni they don't now how to play any other way.

The higher the scoring game the more relevance to the size of the spread.
Example -
A.Timberwolves are at home laying 5.5 points against the Raptors and the total is set at 212.
B. Timberwolves are at home laying 5.5 points against the Raptors and the total is set at 188.

This is of course rather vague and their would be plenty of subjective and situational angles to consider, however statistically in example A the T-Wolves are more likely to cover the spread than they would be in example B.

What's the point? 13 points is a lot to lay against any NBA team, however went the total is set at 217.5 this is the equivalent of Indiana laying 9-10 points at home in a 188-192 total scenario. It is extremely relevant.

Are the Rockets capable of blowing team out - absolutely. They were ranked 9th last year in scoring margins and actually had some of the biggest blow out wins of the season at home. They are ranked 4th so far this year and would be 2nd at around +11 or +12 if not for the blow out loss against the Clippers.

Are the Lakers capable of being blown out? Absolutely. They were average last year at +0.2 (Some of their own blow out wins hid the damage to their ASM that would have otherwise been pounded by some of the big blow out losses they suffered). This year they are already down to 28th rank with -8.2.

The Lakers two roads games have been losses by 31 and 19 against GS and Dallas. GS has some similarities to Houston and the Lakers were down 10 by QT and 19 by HT. Blown off the court from the opening tip. Is that what I expect to happen today? Yes.

Houston opened at home with a 13 point win over the Bobcats, followed by an 8 point win over a pesky Dallas squad who just wouldn't go away (Mav's bounced back next 2 games by belting Memphis [12] and then the Lakers [19]).

Despite the standard bland "it's just another game" b/s, thus game does indeed mean something for both sides, more so the Rockets - AKA D12 (as no Kobe for the Lakers). Also the Rockets are in a stronger position to actually turn their perceived desire into actions than are the Lakers.

Houston is playing like a team that will dish out many a spanking this season, and the Lakers (who after a bright start have been horrible) look primed to receive one today.

Defensively there is almost no one to stop Parsons, and especially Lin and Harden (who both love to drive into the lane) with the Lakers literally being able to offer almost no resistance from 1-3 other than Wes Johnson. Conversely if any of the Lakers guards heat up (other than Swaggy P who is too big)Beverly will do what he does best and just play lock down D. Howard will be primed for a big game and I suspect will play quite physical with Kaman and especially Gasol.

Will be doing very few write up's this season I would think. Too time consuming.

[NBASharp]

Great write-up, love this play as well. D'Antoni is helpless and doesn't realize running-and-gunning is not in favor of his players, especially against a similiar team. When this becomes an early blow-out, I have no doubt that D'Antoni will save the old starters since they have to play tomorrow against the Pelicans. Their second unit has done well at home so far, but it will be a different story in a hostile environment. I hate to say it as a life-time Lakers fan but this might the best bet of the season so far.

[Jago2008]

I hope SBR appreciates posters like Sando, because this is rare.

There are many touts that charge for this knowledge and aren't even close in analysis to this guy.

I also pride myself on stats and knowledge, you have to appreciate this approach.

[davopnz]

woah lakers, like the old school warriors...when the 3's sink they can beat anybody, when they don't they suck.